Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 6:38PM Sunday September 23, 2018 3:34 PM CDT (20:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 5:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 244 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday and Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 244 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis.. Southeast winds tonight through Tuesday night will shift to the south for Wednesday and Thursday, then to the east on Thursday night and Friday, generally 15 knots or less. Seas 2 to 3 feet through the period. Winds and seas higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, FL
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location: 30.18, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 231857
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
257 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Near term [through tonight]
The weak upper low situated over the eastern gulf today will
continue to weaken through tonight. 500mb winds will remain
southeasterly with the upper level low to the west and surface ridge
over the atlantic to the east. Showers and thunderstorms have
already developed across the florida panhandle and the focus for the
remainder of the afternoon should be across the florida panhandle
and southeast alabama. Cross sections show drier air aloft across
the eastern half of the CWA (big bend and southwest georgia) and
this should help to limit convection across that area this
afternoon. While convection will decrease this evening, a few
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible overnight,
particularly across the coastal areas. Lows will remain in the low
to mid 70s, above normal for this time of year (normal at tlh is
66).

Short term [Monday through Tuesday night]
The mid-level low just to our south will continue translating
westward across the gulf of mexico as a deep layer ridge over the
subtropical atlantic increasingly influences our weather. The
pattern continues to favor above average heights with the proximity
of the ridge and precipitable water values slightly above normal,
around 1.7 inches. Given the absence of larger scale forcing,
precipitation will be largely diurnally driven by a weak surface
trough across the western fl panhandle and the seabreeze
circulation. For Monday, most of the guidance, including the href,
has the atlantic seabreeze INVOF the i-75 corridor around 21z. Pops
range from 30-60 pct, highest from i-75 into the eastern fl big bend
and west of the chatahoochee river into the far western big bend.

Model soundings continue to indicate mid-level lapse rates
approaching 6.5 c km, mixed layer CAPE around 1.5k j kg, and
downdraft CAPE around 1.0k j kg on Monday from i-75 into the eastern
big bend, so a few strong thunderstorm wind gusts are possible.

On Tuesday, with greater ridging toward the east, pops range from
30 to 60 pct from the western big bend and points northwest,
decreasing eastward from that area to less than 20 pct.

Temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday will reach the upper 80s
to lower 90s and bottom out in the low to mid 70s, averaging
around five degrees above seasonal levels.

Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
With the approach of a long wave trough moving into the mississippi
valley, the deep layer flow will veer to the southwest on Wednesday.

This will transport deeper moisture into much of the region, leading
to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Pops increase
40-60 pct across the entire area on Wednesday. As a cold front
approaches from the tennessee valley on Thursday, greater synoptic
scale forcing will arrive leading to continued coverage of showers
and thunderstorms, especially northwest of the fl big bend, with
pops again ranging 40-60 pct. Strong thunderstorms are possible
mainly northwest of the big bend on Wednesday and perhaps more so
on Thursday, given modeled mid-level lapse rates approaching 6.5
c km, mixed layer CAPE around 1.5k j kg, and 500 hpa winds up to
25 kts.

Given the mid-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the front,
it's likely to stall in the vicinity of the region during the Friday
through Sunday time frame. Pops generally range 30-50 pct during this
period, although the uncertainty regarding the position of the front
translates into a lower confidence pop forecast. Temperature-wise,
continued above average through the first week of fall, with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the low to mid-
70s.

Aviation [through 18z Monday]
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
with the better chances across the ecp to dhn area. While an
isolated storm cannot be ruled out along the coast this evening,
chances will decrease overnight. Some guidance is hinting at low
cigs vsbys tomorrow morning, but given it has not occurred the past
few morning with guidance also pointing to lower conditions, have
left out of the tafs for tonight.

Marine
Southeast winds tonight through Tuesday night will shift to the
south for Wednesday and Thursday, then to the east on Thursday
night and Friday, generally 15 knots or less. Seas 2 to 3 feet
through the period. Winds and seas higher in the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected through the next
several days. Chances for wetting rains will increase across the
region this week.

Hydrology
The average total rainfall amounts over the next week are expected
to range from less than 1 inch in southwest ga to around 1.5 inches
near the western fl panhandle coast. This distribution is close to
long term averages, except southwest ga, where it is below normal.

In addition, localized higher amounts are likely in heavier showers
and thunderstorms. Overall, this should not present an issue for
rivers and streams, which are expected to remain below action stage
through the period.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 90 74 91 73 20 30 30 30 20
panama city 73 87 75 88 75 40 60 40 50 30
dothan 71 88 72 89 72 20 40 20 50 20
albany 73 91 74 91 74 20 30 30 20 20
valdosta 71 90 73 92 73 10 40 20 20 10
cross city 72 90 74 93 74 20 40 20 30 20
apalachicola 75 86 76 87 76 60 60 40 60 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Lf
long term... Lf
aviation... Fieux
marine... Lf
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 3 mi34 min 86°F 87°F1014.7 hPa (-2.0)
PCBF1 14 mi34 min 84°F 88°F1014.7 hPa (-1.9)
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 46 mi34 min 82°F 86°F1015.1 hPa (-2.0)
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 47 mi49 min E 6 1016 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi98 minE 610.00 miFair86°F72°F65%1015.2 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL15 mi41 minNNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F82%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5E4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE4NE5NE4NE3E3NE4CalmE5E4E3E8SE5E8E6SE5
G14
1 day agoS14SE9SE6--SE5CalmCalm--------------E5------E4E6----SW7S5
2 days agoSW9SW9W3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmE4E4E4E5CalmCalmNE5NE7E8E6E7--SE10E5--

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.