Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 9:48 PM   Moonset 7:01 AM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 359 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm cdt this evening through Friday evening - .
This afternoon - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Friday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Lake waters very rough. Friday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters very rough. Saturday - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Lake waters extremely rough. Saturday night - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Lake waters extremely rough. Sunday - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters extremely rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters extremely rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 359 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis - Starting on today winds will start to increase becoming moderate to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up to 30 knots. The elevated winds will continue on Saturday as well before weakening on Sunday. Waves will also build in the outer waters reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays will be rough to very rough conditions.
a small craft advisory is likely starting on Thursday night and lasting through Saturday as the pressure gradient further tightens across the area building seas further into the weekend under a strong southerly regime.

FXUS64 KLCH 260458 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1158 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Main story concerning the short range forecast will be the onset of strong winds across the marine zones and inland interests which will trend through the weekend. At present time, there is a Small Craft Advisory for portions of the coastal lake, bays, and Gulf of Mexico taking effect tonight through 10PM CDT Friday night. Do note, inland winds and gusts approach, but remain just shy of sustained criteria for wind advisory during periods of this time. Confidence is strong enough to stand down on a high wind watch. However, brief periods of sustained winds near 35mph or occasional gusts approaching 45 MPH are not out of the question. With the National Blend of Model staying fairly congruent with many deterministic ensembles regarding the pressure gradient and general timing, a Wind Advisory is most certainly possible inland-likely later in the short range trending into the long range- to complement the small craft advisory already set for the marine zones. Touching further on the marine zones particularly south of the Sabine and Calcasieu channels, do expect near gales to gale gusts to occur periodically through Saturday into Sunday. Further note, these elevated winds and gusts will contain SE components which will make direct north / south navigation difficult on large profile vessels. For high profile vehicles, these conditions will also make it difficult to maintain control during the period of stronger winds/gusts.

Currently, a 996mb low pressure is deepening east of the Colorado Rockies with moderate troughing extending south into northern Mexico. Upstream of the Low, a large area of subsidence occupies east of the Mississippi where high pressure is modifying into the western Atlantic waters by Friday afternoon. While the high pressure cell maximizes near Cape Cod, ridging will extend SSW across the SE CONUS into the central Gulf of Mexico before slackening to low pressure over the TX/MEX coast. A progressive upper air pattern over the central plains will lift north of the subtropical ridge over SE CONUS. Thus, the shortwave and abovementioned low pressure will slowly move into the upper Midwest through early Saturday morning while the cold front extending south transitions to a dry line trough. Due to strong moisture advection ahead of the trough, very minimal POPS develop over portions of SETX and far SWLA, but should diminish by the daylight hours Saturday. However, in place will be the steep gradient influencing gusty conditions at the surface.
Despite dominate cloudy conditions, diurnal temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80’s through Saturday afternoon. Winds will continue to increase through the early evening hours, before slight easing occurs after daybreak Sunday when a secondary impulse from the Pacific accelerates across the western CONUS and helps broaden / fill the low pressure gradient across the central / southern plains.

Kowalski/30

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For Sunday, a mid to upper level shortwave and accompanying surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle expected to move north northeast through Monday. The surface low with stronger high pressure across the East Coast will keep a tight pressure gradient over our region Sunday with ongoing southerly winds around 20-25 mph with gusts 30- 35 mph likely. The main area of lift expected to remain to our north and northwest, along with the greatest threat of severe weather for Sunday. However, the diffluent flow aloft will allow for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms north of I-10 by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, with the highest chances expected Monday around 50-70%. WPC has areas outlined in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall north of I-10 over SE TX/C LA for Monday, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere. Chances diminish down to 30-50% for Tuesday afternoon, and 20% or less for Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will remain above normal with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

08/DML

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

While we currently have VFR CIGs currently, some MVFR CIGs are working in out of the west tonight. They are expected to hold for a majority of the period with mot much lifting over the afternoon hours. Outside of CIGs , gusty southerly to southeasterly flow will pick up as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an incoming system. We could see some isolated showers and storms out of this, however this is not in the TAFs at the moment due to the low probability of it.

MARINE
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Starting on today winds will start to increase becoming moderate to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up to 30 knots. The elevated winds will continue on Saturday as well before weakening on Sunday. Waves will also build in the outer waters reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays will be rough to very rough conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday night and lasting through Saturday as the pressure gradient further tightens across the area building seas further into the weekend under a strong southerly regime.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 84 68 86 / 0 0 10 10 LCH 69 82 71 84 / 0 0 10 0 LFT 69 84 71 86 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 70 83 71 84 / 0 0 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-450- 452-470-472.

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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:19 AM CDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:47 AM CDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM CDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:46 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:05 PM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:05 AM CDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:33 AM CDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:16 PM CDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:46 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:55 PM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana (2), Tide feet

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