Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Miramar Beach, FL
March 18, 2024 8:28 PM CDT (01:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:50 AM Sunset 6:58 PM Moonrise 1:04 PM Moonset 3:05 AM |
GMZ636 Expires:202403190930;;969459 Fzus54 Kmob 182031 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 331 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-190930- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 331 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning - .
Tonight - North winds around 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - West winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 331 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-190930- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 331 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 331 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 18 2024
Synopsis - A strong northerly flow continues through Tuesday morning. Winds quickly subside throughout the day on Tuesday, with light and variable winds expected during the middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the east, returns for late week before turning back to northerly by the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 182340 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 740 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below.
However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas.
Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties.
Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties.
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday's cold front.
Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR through the period. High pressure ridge will build into the area from the high center in the southern Plains. The pressure gradient is strong enough for gusts for the next few hours 15-25 knots. Wind directions will veer this evening from the west to the northwest and speeds will decrease into the late evening hours.
Highs clouds will be around much of the night then move southeast away from the area towards dawn.
MARINE
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Cold front continues to move south of the region and as another wave moves through tonight, expect an increase in northerly winds across the area which will bring solid advisory level conditions with 20 to 30 knot winds into early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can't be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce during the afternoon on Tuesday and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today.
High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week.
Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding.
Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 39 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 40 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 38 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 40 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114.
GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>124-142.
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>067.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770- 772.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 740 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below.
However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas.
Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties.
Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties.
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday's cold front.
Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR through the period. High pressure ridge will build into the area from the high center in the southern Plains. The pressure gradient is strong enough for gusts for the next few hours 15-25 knots. Wind directions will veer this evening from the west to the northwest and speeds will decrease into the late evening hours.
Highs clouds will be around much of the night then move southeast away from the area towards dawn.
MARINE
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Cold front continues to move south of the region and as another wave moves through tonight, expect an increase in northerly winds across the area which will bring solid advisory level conditions with 20 to 30 knot winds into early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can't be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce during the afternoon on Tuesday and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today.
High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week.
Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding.
Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 39 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 40 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 38 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 40 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114.
GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>124-142.
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>067.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770- 772.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
PCBF1 | 16 mi | 58 min | NNW 12G | 64°F | 67°F | |||
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 28 mi | 58 min | NNW 8G | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDTS DESTIN EXECUTIVE,FL | 18 sm | 35 min | NNW 16G24 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 32°F | 34% | 30.04 | |
KECP NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTL,FL | 20 sm | 35 min | NNW 16G23 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 34°F | 36% | 30.01 | |
KVPS EGLIN AFB/DESTINFT WALTON BEACH,FL | 23 sm | 33 min | N 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 28°F | 29% | 30.04 |
Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:03 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:30 AM CDT -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 01:02 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:13 PM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:03 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:30 AM CDT -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 01:02 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:13 PM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
-0.2 |
1 am |
-0.3 |
2 am |
-0.4 |
3 am |
-0.4 |
4 am |
-0.4 |
5 am |
-0.4 |
6 am |
-0.2 |
7 am |
0 |
8 am |
0.2 |
9 am |
0.4 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.7 |
12 pm |
0.9 |
1 pm |
1 |
2 pm |
1.2 |
3 pm |
1.2 |
4 pm |
1.2 |
5 pm |
1.2 |
6 pm |
1.1 |
7 pm |
1.1 |
8 pm |
0.9 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
0.4 |
11 pm |
0.2 |
West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:03 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM CDT -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:02 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:03 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM CDT -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:02 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
0.6 |
1 am |
0.4 |
2 am |
0.1 |
3 am |
-0.1 |
4 am |
-0.3 |
5 am |
-0.4 |
6 am |
-0.5 |
7 am |
-0.5 |
8 am |
-0.5 |
9 am |
-0.4 |
10 am |
-0.2 |
11 am |
-0 |
12 pm |
0.2 |
1 pm |
0.5 |
2 pm |
0.7 |
3 pm |
1 |
4 pm |
1.2 |
5 pm |
1.4 |
6 pm |
1.5 |
7 pm |
1.6 |
8 pm |
1.6 |
9 pm |
1.5 |
10 pm |
1.3 |
11 pm |
1.1 |
Northwest Florida,
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