Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Miramar Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:04PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 6:31 PM CDT (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 256 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light. A moderate chop becoming smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming choppy. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Saturday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Winds light. Smooth.
Sunday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 256 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..Surface high pressure to the east maintains onshore flow through Wednesday...increasing on Thursday as a front approaches from the west. Due to the increase and duration of the southerly fetch Thursday and Thursday night...seas trend higher. Thunderstorms increase in coverage. The front looks to make passage early Friday morning...bringing a moderate westerly flow during the day Friday in its wake. Onshore flow returns over the weekend and shows a greater increase by Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miramar Beach, FL
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location: 30.3, -86.16     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 281957
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
357 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Near term [through tonight]
The weak front that is situated north of the CWA that has helped to
initiate convection will weaken tonight and push off to the east,
while remaining north of the cwa. This, combined with the loss of
daytime heating, will work to diminish convection and thus kept pops
below 20 percent for after 00z. The main impact tonight will be
areas of fog, with patchy dense fog, generally from 06z to 14z. Lows
will be above normal with lows in the mid 60s.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]
Areas of fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise Wednesday, with
mainly dry conditions expected through the afternoon and night
under an upper level ridge. However, enough instability and
moisture will be present across SW georgia to justify slight
chances of thunderstorms during peak heating times in the late
afternoon and evening. A sharp upper level trough will move into the
mississippi valley region on Thursday afternoon/night, with
moisture and instability increasing ahead of this feature. On
Thursday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms will likely
move into our western areas. Pops across the fl panhandle and se
alabama range from 60-80 percent Thursday night, and models are
showing heavy rainfall potential during this time with QPF amounts
ranging from 1-3" across our western areas. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as 0-6 km bulk shear
values increase to 50 kts, but marginal instability (cape
generally 1000 j/kg or less, highest near the gulf coast) could
limit severe potential. Very warm days will continue, with inland
highs in the mid-upper 80s and upper 70s along the coast. Lows
will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]
The powerful shortwave trough mentioned in the short term
discussion will move eastward across our area on Friday morning
and afternoon, with a cold front at the surface also moving from
west to east across our area during the day. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain likely as a result, mainly along and
east of the front from the fl big bend into SW georgia. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible, with ample bulk shear and
cape values around 1000 j/kg just ahead of the front. Dry air will
move into our area behind the front during the weekend, although
generally clear skies will allow temperatures to warm into the
low-mid 80s each day.

Another powerful upper trough and potent surface low are likely
to move just northwest of our area on Monday, and a strong mid-
level jet could push into our region behind the trough on Tuesday.

Instability looks decent with SBCAPE up to 1500-2000 j/kg
possible each day, and bulk shear of around 40 kts is possible so
scattered strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. Also,
periods of heavy rain are possible with deep layer moisture moving
into our area (pwat values up to 2" at times). Both the GFS and
ecmwf show widespread QPF amounts of 1-2" with locally higher
totals across our area, mainly Monday and Monday night. A lot of
uncertainty still remains since the event is nearly a week out,
but strong to severe storms and localized flooding appear
possible during this time.

Aviation [through 18z Wednesday]
There are a few showers around the TAF sites this afternoon but the
isolated nature of the showers, have left the mention out of the
tafs. Convection will diminish this evening. Most sites areVFR this
afternoon and that will continue into tonight, but low clouds and
fog are expected tonight that will bring vlifr to ifr conditions to
the TAF sites.

Marine
Light winds and seas are expected through Thursday, but could
reach advisory levels Thursday night through Friday as a front
and a line of showers and thunderstorms move through the
northeastern gulf. Winds and seas will decrease late Friday and
remain fairly light through the weekend.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.

Hydrology
Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall on Thursday night
and early Friday, and a second round of storms/heavy rain is
possible early next week. Flooding is not expected from Thursday
to Friday with thunderstorms likely moving quickly across our
area, but cannot be ruled out early next week with additional
periods of heavy rain.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 59 85 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 40
panama city 63 77 62 77 66 / 10 0 0 0 80
dothan 61 85 59 85 63 / 10 10 0 10 70
albany 62 86 61 87 64 / 10 20 20 20 40
valdosta 59 86 59 86 62 / 0 10 10 40 20
cross city 56 85 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
apalachicola 61 76 62 77 66 / 10 0 0 0 60

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Lahr
long term... Lahr
aviation... Fieux
marine... Lahr
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Lahr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 16 mi44 min S 6 G 7 72°F 74°F1016 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 28 mi44 min S 8.9 G 12 72°F 74°F1016.1 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 56 mi44 min SSW 7 G 9.9 1015.2 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 74 mi44 min WSW 7 G 8.9 1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL18 mi39 minSSW 710.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1015.2 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL20 mi39 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1016.7 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi96 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F67°F76%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S4S5S634CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW566S7S76S7SW7SW5SW7
1 day agoSE5SE5SE5SE6SE3SE4SE5SE4SE3SE5SE4SE5SE5SE11SE7SE9SE9SE9SE9SE8SE10SE8S8SE6
2 days agoSE11SE12SE11N6NE5E4SE8SE7S86S5S4SE5SE9SE8SE8SE10SE10SE9SE11SE10SE6S7SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:00 AM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:30 AM CDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 AM CDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:23 PM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.50.40.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.40.20.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:15 PM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.90.80.80.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.