Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 1:54 AM   Moonset 12:28 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 910 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots late this evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 910 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the end of week and into the weekend as surface high pressure ridges into the southeast states from the western atlantic. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced seas breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 020050 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 850 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 845 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Added a slight chance for showers in the Florida Big Bend and southeast Alabama as some light returns remain on radar and expected to decrease through 9-10pm ET. Overnight, expanded patchy to areas of fog through much of the tri state area south of Albany to the coast. There is not a strong signal for dense fog at this time but a few more fog prone spots could experience visibilities down to a quarter mile in the predawn hours. Will keep any advisories in the pocket at this update and allow the next shift to evaluate and monitor observations and trends.

NEAR TERM
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The Sea breeze is currently making its way inland across the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend with isolated showers and a few lightning strikes developing. Coverage should remain rather sparse and will quickly fade after sunset. Another round of fog, possibly locally dense, is expected tonight, mostly across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, though it could nudge its way into southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

Generally southeasterly flow is expected tomorrow, though another sea breeze may set up across the eastern Big Bend. This could collide with the Atlantic sea breeze late in the afternoon, yielding scattered showers and storms near the Suwannee River, eastern Big Bend, and I-75 corridor. Looking at forecast soundings, dry air aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could result in some gusty winds with the strongest storms. DCAPE values peak around 1000 J/kg in the eastern Big Bend, which usually tends to be favorable for some stronger winds during these summertime sea breeze scenarios.
Elsewhere, showers and storms are currently not expected. Highs tomorrow afternoon will peak near 90 away from the coast with mid- 80s near the beaches.

SHORT TERM

LONG TERM

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening around all terminals except for ABY. The convection will end by 01z.

Overnight, another round of fog is expected to affect all terminals, except ABY. ECP and TLH terminals will be impacted by possibly dense fog, resulting in LIFR vsbys (and VLIFR for TLH with 1/4SM vsbys) between 08z and 13z Thursday morning. The DHN terminal will be along the edge of the fog bank where it may be affected with potentially IFR conditions. The ABY terminal may fall to MVFR cigs, but is expected to remain VFR as it will likely be too far north for the fog to settle in. The VLD terminal is forecast to fall to MVFR but, confidence is low given persistence trends which would bring cigs down to LIFR. Conditions are expected to return to VFR by mid morning.

MARINE
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the weekend. There may be a small chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday morning for waters east of Apalachicola.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally southeasterly to southerly transport winds around 10 mph are expected each day across the area. Daily sea breeze pattern will promote winds becoming more southerly during the afternoon, especially over the Florida zones. This combined with high mixing heights during the afternoon will yield good to locally excellent dispersions each afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon near the Suwannee River and I-75 corridor and Friday afternoon across southwest Georgia. Rain chances increase on Saturday across the entire forecast area with the greatest rain chances over southwest Georgia.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

No changes to the forecast as minor river flooding remains on the Lower Suwannee this afternoon and should fall below minor flood stage in the next day or so. With rainfall amounts staying below 0.50 inches the next few days, no additional riverine flooding is expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 66 90 66 88 / 20 10 0 10 Panama City 67 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 65 89 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 Albany 64 89 66 86 / 0 10 0 20 Valdosta 66 90 67 89 / 10 30 0 20 Cross City 63 90 65 89 / 0 30 0 10 Apalachicola 68 81 68 80 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Panama City Beach
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Wed -- 12:41 AM CDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:09 PM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

West Bay Creek
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Wed -- 01:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:04 AM CDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:26 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:11 PM CDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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