Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Miramar Beach, FL

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Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:23PM Monday August 20, 2018 1:59 AM CDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 946 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 946 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis..A surface ridge of high pressure over the western atlantic will continue to extend west over the eastern and north central gulf through early Tuesday, then shift southward through midweek in response to a weak frontal boundary approaching from the north. The weak front will move offshore early Wednesday then stall offshore later in the week. A light to occasionally moderate south to southwesterly flow will continue over the marine area through late Tuesday followed by a light offshore flow Wednesday through Thursday. Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms through Tuesday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miramar Beach, FL
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location: 30.3, -86.16     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 200533
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
133 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Aviation [through 06z Tuesday]
MVFR restrictions are forecast at dhn and aby before sunrise,
slowly lifting toVFR later in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will
be most likely at dhn and aby, but a scattering of storms
elsewhere could result in any of our terminals being impacted.

Expect MVFR to lifr in storms.

Prev discussion [851 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
The focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening will be across
the fl big bend, southeast al, and southwest ga, as more stable air
has advected into the remainder of the area. With precipitable water
(pw) values around 2.2 inches over the aforementioned area, heavier
than normal downpours may lead to localized poor drainage flooding.

Despite the unremarkable instability and shear, the unseasonably
high moisture content, in conjunction with collapsing thunderstorm
downdrafts, has the potential to produce isolated wind gusts of 40-
50 mph. Precipitation will diminish late this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Overnight, low clouds are likely to redevelop,
which will hold temperatures slightly above normal.

Short term [Monday through Wednesday night]
An upper low will continue to move through the upper midwest on
Monday as a deep layer ridge builds westward from the atlantic
over the southeast states. In terms of thunderstorm coverage,
Monday looks very similar to Sunday. A gradient of pw values will
exist once again, near 1.8" near the big bend under the influence
of the upper ridge and near 2.2" in SE al. This will keep 50-60%
pop in SE al tapered down to around 30% in the southeastern areas.

As usual, storms will taper off quickly after sunset.

The cold front looks to make a quicker arrival than previous runs,
especially in the gfs. With this quicker arrival, the best
moisture may already be in our far southeast fl counties by 12z
Wednesday. The GFS stalls the front to the south while the ecmwf
doesn't bring it through until Wednesday afternoon before it
generally washes out stalls just to our south on Thursday morning.

The NAM is fairly split between the two. On average, it looks
like the front and its associated precip and upper support will
make it far enough south to the SE al counties for at least
scattered to likely pops Tuesday evening and only slight chance in
the fl big bend area. With the loss of heating Tue night, only
isolated to scattered showers storms is forecast as the front
moves south. Once we heat up again on Wednesday, coverage will
increase again along the front which will likely wash out stall
near the fl big bend, giving those counties the higher chance of
rain (gfs is much more progressive with a dry day for wed). A few
showers may linger Wed night in the southeastern counties.

Highs through the short term will generally be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s; cooler in the west where more clouds rain will occur.

Lows will be in the lower 70s, maybe slightly cooler Wed night
behind the front.

Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
What is consistent is much drier air will be moving in for
Thursday with pw values falling to around 1.5" and dew points in
the upper 60s. Thursday still looks relatively dry with the
blended pops leaving a chance in for the big bend area to account
for uncertainty on where the front will stall. A weak surface low
looks to form along the remnant boundary on Friday with an
easterly surface flow bringing in showers and storms. This will
generally dominate the weather through Sunday with a weak
shortwave moving in to enhance the coverage on Sunday. Have left
the chance to likely pops in for the weekend from the blended
guidance at this time.

Highs will be near 90 through the long term with lows near
seasonable, in the lower 70s.

Marine
Generally light winds and low seas are expected over the next few
days. A cold front will move through the waters Tuesday through
Thursday, increasing winds and seas slightly.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected through the period
as rh's will remain above critical thresholds.

Patchy fog is possible late tonight.

Hydrology
Total forecast rain amounts will average around 1.5" along and
west of the apalachicola and chattahoochee rivers over the next 7
days. Elsewhere, amounts around 1 inch are forecast. Therefore,
latest river guidance keeps all rivers just below action stage.

Locally higher amounts are possible and will likely occur so
flashier rivers and streams may still rise as well as low lying
and flood prone areas.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 90 74 90 75 92 40 20 50 20 30
panama city 87 78 88 77 89 40 20 50 20 30
dothan 86 73 88 73 89 70 20 60 20 20
albany 89 73 89 73 91 60 20 50 20 20
valdosta 91 73 90 74 92 30 20 40 20 30
cross city 90 75 90 76 91 30 20 30 20 50
apalachicola 87 78 87 78 89 40 20 40 20 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Lf
long term... Ln
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Ln
hydrology... Pullin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 16 mi42 min SSW 7 G 8.9 83°F 85°F1017.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 28 mi42 min S 5.1 G 6 82°F 86°F1017.5 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 56 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 12 82°F 83°F1016.8 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 74 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 7 83°F 83°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL18 mi67 minVar 310.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1016.8 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL20 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1017.9 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi2.1 hrsSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW43W4W33NW7
G14
3NW33SW5SW5SW7SW5--63Calm3Calm45435
1 day agoS44SW3CalmCalm43NW5NW4W3Calm3S443343Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6S35CalmN6443S4Calm6Calm3S7S5Calm434CalmCalm3S43

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:16 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:36 AM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:46 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.51.61.61.61.61.61.51.31.10.80.60.50.40.40.30.30.40.50.70.80.91

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:15 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:25 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.41.51.61.71.81.81.71.61.41.210.70.50.40.20.20.20.20.30.40.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.