Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 4:13 PM   Moonset 3:26 AM

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GMZ636 Expires:202405200315;;484009 Fzus54 Kmob 191433 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 933 am cdt Sun may 19 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633>636-200315- perdido bay-pensacola bay system-western choctawhatchee bay- eastern choctawhatchee bay- 933 am cdt Sun may 19 2024
Rest of today - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tonight - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday night - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 933 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Primarily light west to northwest flow through Monday night, but sometimes light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Thursday.

FXUS62 KTAE 191739 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 139 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

No updates appear necessary to the forecast this morning.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper level trough will move through north-central Georgia today.
Cooler temperatures aloft with this trough will steepen lapse rates, and residual moisture appears sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. With the cooler temperatures aloft, small hail will possible with storms that develop. In addition, fairly high DCAPE values due to some mid-level dry air may allow for some gusty winds with the storms as well. Any storms that develop are expected to diminish after sunset. Highs will generally be in the 80s across the area this afternoon with lows tonight generally in the 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A weak cold front should move through the forecast on Monday as the upper level trough that brought an active weekend of weather moves off the east coast. One weak shortwave passing through and northerly flow converging with the seabreeze at the surface could help generate a few showers, and possibly a thunderstorm on Monday afternoon across the southeast Big Bend where better low to mid-level moisture exists. High temperatures should be a little cooler on Monday and drop into the mid to upper 80s.

Dry northwesterly flow moves in as a ridge axis to our west begins to build. Rain chances should clear out with the surface high and easterly flow remaining in place for the afternoon. Expect temperatures to warm back up to around the upper 80s and around 90.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Quiet conditions are in store for much of the week as the upper ridge axis builds across the southeast. Light easterly flow through the week is expected and with the ridge controlling the pattern, no rain is expected. We will likely see above normal temperatures through the period with highs in the low 90s most afternoons.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Low pressure is currently sliding to southeast GA with cumulus clouds gliding over the region. Cigs have been bouncing between MVFR and VFR for the past few hours and will likely continue for at least KABY and KVLD. As we move into the evening hours, the clouds should dissipate leaving much of the region with VFR conditions overnight. Guidance suggests MVFR to IFR cigs possible from about KABY to KTLH and east of that line. Added lowered cigs from about 9Z to 14Z but this may need to be adjusted at the next TAF cycle. Confidence is highest at KABY and KVLD in this happening. Once the sunrise tomorrow, VFR conditions return.



MARINE
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

West winds lighten through the day and eventually become north and northeasterly by Monday as a cold front moves through. Winds and seas will lessen some but still remain around 10 knots and 2 to 3 feet into Tuesday as easterly flow remains. Expect increases in the overnight hours with easterly surges from the Atlantic seabreeze. By Wednesday of next week light winds and seas are expected to bring good boating conditions to area waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Other than high dispersions in the afternoon, there are no fire weather concerns for the next few days with saturated conditions and relative humidity above critical levels.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 87 67 85 65 / 30 10 20 0 Panama City 84 69 87 68 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 84 66 83 64 / 10 0 10 0 Albany 83 64 83 62 / 40 10 10 0 Valdosta 86 67 84 63 / 40 30 20 0 Cross City 86 67 86 63 / 50 20 40 10 Apalachicola 84 70 82 70 / 10 0 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Panama City Beach
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Sun -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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