Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 5:29 AM   Moonset 7:24 PM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 338 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 338 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday.

FXUS64 KMOB 071816 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION, NEAR TERM

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions with southerly winds of 10-15 knots will continue this afternoon. Winds will decrease tonight with low clouds and patchy fog returning. VFR conditions return Wednesday morning. /13

NEAR TERM
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper-level ridge continues to reside over the Gulf of Mexico throughout the near term period. Its ridge axis extends northward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. This axis will push east across our area throughout the day today.
Northwesterly upper flow this morning will increase and turn more west-southwesterly after the axis passes. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer- like pattern. Overall storm coverage today still remains rather questionable, however. Although there is plenty of moisture and instability in place, subsidence from the passing ridge axis may help to limit coverage across the area, especially with a lack of any large-scale lifting mechanisms to counter the subsidence.
However, taking into consideration that upper-level flow will increase and shift directions after the passage of the ridge axis, a brief corridor of weak upper-level diffluence may materialize over our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours. Therefore, have maintained isolated to scattered rain chances for areas west of I-65 (generally a 20-40 percent chance). It should be noted that although coverage should be rather low, storms that do develop will be working with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of around 30kts, with straight-lined hodographs. Due to this favorable environment, any storm that does develop could become loosely organized, posing a localized threat for strong to damaging winds and/or hail up to quarter-sized. SPC has included our northwestern-most zones in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for this afternoon due to this potential. Activity will quickly decrease by the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the main ridge begins to shift northeastward, nosing further into our area during the day and helping to provide stronger subsidence across the area. Overall, except for a very isolated pop- up shower or storm over our northern counties, expecting Wednesday to remain dry.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as subsidence strengthens across the area and warm air advection from the Gulf continues. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows tonight will only drop into low to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s over coastal counties to the low 90s inland.
This paired with dew points in the upper 70s will give way to heat indices tomorrow of around 97 to 102 degrees for areas north of I- 10. The rip current risk becomes high today and will remain high through the rest of the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 73 89 74 88 69 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 60 40 10 10 Pensacola 74 87 76 85 72 83 63 80 / 0 10 0 10 50 50 10 10 Destin 75 85 76 84 73 82 64 79 / 10 0 0 10 40 50 10 10 Evergreen 70 91 71 90 66 82 55 79 / 0 10 10 40 70 60 0 10 Waynesboro 71 92 71 90 65 82 55 79 / 10 10 10 40 70 30 0 0 Camden 70 92 69 88 65 80 54 77 / 10 20 10 50 70 40 0 0 Crestview 69 91 70 90 68 84 57 82 / 0 10 0 20 50 60 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bon Secour
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Tue -- 05:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM CDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:55 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 05:07 AM CDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:30 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:34 PM CDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:24 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 10:47 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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