Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elberta, AL
May 17, 2024 12:26 AM CDT (05:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 2:32 PM Moonset 2:41 AM |
GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- 1102 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
.tornado watch 252 in effect until 3 am cdt Friday - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds.
Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds.
Monday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds.
Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.
Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 1102 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds will increase to moderate by Friday, along with building seas, ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. It should be noted that a wake low may possibly develop late tonight behind the initial line of storms, which could lead to a brief window of gusty winds for marine zones near the coast. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 170515 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1215 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) currently over extreme southeast Louisiana and beginning to advance into coastal Mississippi will continue eastward and affect coastal portions of Alabama and coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle during the first several hours of the TAF cycle. Additional convection will affect much of the area overnight and is expected on Friday as well. IFR conditions will accompany the stronger convection, otherwise MVFR to VFR conditions are anticipated. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 1105 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New UPDATE
UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Have updated again to increase pops to categorical for the rest of the night for virtually the entire area based on latest radar trends and Convection Allowing Model guidance. A Tornado Watch is now in effect for Mobile county Alabama and much of the adjacent Alabama waters until 3 am. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New UPDATE
UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Have increased pops for the rest of tonight to likely to categorical for much of the area based on the latest Convection Allowing Model (CAM) guidance as well as radar trends. Made other mainly modest adjustments. Will need to monitor for the potential for strong to possibly severe storms affecting mostly the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi overnight based on consistency seen in some CAM runs. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Showers and storms are expected progress across the area from late evening into the overnight hours, with additional showers and storms anticipated during the day on Friday. Strong gusty winds are possible with the storms, especially near the coast during the overnight hours. VFR conditions at the beginning of the period will be followed by predominately MVFR conditions developing tonight which then improve somewhat to MVFR/VFR conditions by Friday afternoon. Light southerly winds prevail this evening then increase to 10-15 knots late tonight into Friday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Another active and very complicated weather pattern starts tonight and continues through Saturday morning. Several shortwaves will eject northeast from a very slow moving positive tilt trough moving through the plains. The first wave is expected to move in late this evening into the early morning hours on Friday and affect mainly southern portions of the area. We expect this line to be on a weakening trend, however gusty winds and heavy rain can be expected. There is the possibility of a wake low developing late tonight behind the line of showers and storms, bringing gusty winds to the coastal and marine area. The left over boundary from the morning convection will lift northward as a warm front through the day on Friday and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development. The pre-storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values as high as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. The tornado threat, while non-zero, will be mitigated due to the weak low level shear values. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for severe storms on Friday. Another shortwave and associated MCS is expected to approach the area Friday afternoon/evening. These storms could again pose a damaging wind and large hail threat.
Additional showers and storms are possible into Saturday as the approaching cold front.
The multiple rounds of rain on already saturated grounds will create the risk for flooding through Saturday. WPC had a moderate risk across northwest portions of the area with a slight risk across the remainder of the area. We have issued a Flood Watch for the entire area starting tonight at midnight. A high risk of rip currents is in effect from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon. /13
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Active weather continues into Saturday as a final shortwave ejects northeastward across the local area. At the surface, hi-res model guidance suggests that a remnant outflow boundary from previous storms should be lingering across the area, possibly near the I-65 corridor. This outflow will serve as a focus for one last round of showers and storms to develop as the shortwave passes overhead. The primary concern with these storms will be heavy, training rainfall which could lead to continued flooding concerns across the area, especially over areas that see a copious amount of rainfall on Friday. Because of this, the Flood Watch will remain in effect through early Saturday afternoon (although if rainfall lingers a bit longer, then a small extension to the watch is possible). Deep-layer shear remains rather strong (around 50 knots) as a mid to upper jet develops overhead, however, the biggest question will be if we can destabilize again in the wake of the storms that moved through the area the previous night. If we can destabilize, then shear will be strong enough to allow for some storm organization, which could lead to the development of a few strong to severe storms. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place across much of the area on Saturday to account for this possibility.
The main trough passes overhead Saturday night, with rain chances quickly decreasing from west to east throughout the overnight hours as a drier airmass advects in from the northwest. Highs on Saturday will reach the low to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will only drop into the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s along the immediate coast.
The rip current risk remains high through the period. /96
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Upper-level troughing will slowly push into the western Atlantic as an upper ridge builds over the western Gulf. Subsidence from this ridge, along with high pressure developing over the southeast US, will keep the local area dry through at least Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered rain chances return to the forecast by midweek as a shortwave moves across the Tennessee River Valley and the ridge sinks back to the southwest. Temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast.
/96
MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Southerly winds will increase to moderate by Friday, along with building seas, ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. It should be noted that a wake low may possibly develop late tonight behind the initial line of storms, which could lead to a brief window of gusty winds for marine zones near the coast. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 82 67 88 67 90 69 88 / 60 80 30 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 82 71 87 70 88 71 87 / 60 80 40 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 81 72 85 72 85 72 84 / 40 80 40 10 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 68 83 66 87 64 89 65 90 / 70 90 40 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 66 84 65 88 64 91 66 91 / 70 70 20 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 83 65 86 64 88 64 89 / 80 80 30 10 0 0 0 0 Crestview 70 82 67 88 64 90 64 90 / 50 90 40 10 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1215 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) currently over extreme southeast Louisiana and beginning to advance into coastal Mississippi will continue eastward and affect coastal portions of Alabama and coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle during the first several hours of the TAF cycle. Additional convection will affect much of the area overnight and is expected on Friday as well. IFR conditions will accompany the stronger convection, otherwise MVFR to VFR conditions are anticipated. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 1105 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New UPDATE
UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Have updated again to increase pops to categorical for the rest of the night for virtually the entire area based on latest radar trends and Convection Allowing Model guidance. A Tornado Watch is now in effect for Mobile county Alabama and much of the adjacent Alabama waters until 3 am. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New UPDATE
UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Have increased pops for the rest of tonight to likely to categorical for much of the area based on the latest Convection Allowing Model (CAM) guidance as well as radar trends. Made other mainly modest adjustments. Will need to monitor for the potential for strong to possibly severe storms affecting mostly the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi overnight based on consistency seen in some CAM runs. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Showers and storms are expected progress across the area from late evening into the overnight hours, with additional showers and storms anticipated during the day on Friday. Strong gusty winds are possible with the storms, especially near the coast during the overnight hours. VFR conditions at the beginning of the period will be followed by predominately MVFR conditions developing tonight which then improve somewhat to MVFR/VFR conditions by Friday afternoon. Light southerly winds prevail this evening then increase to 10-15 knots late tonight into Friday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Another active and very complicated weather pattern starts tonight and continues through Saturday morning. Several shortwaves will eject northeast from a very slow moving positive tilt trough moving through the plains. The first wave is expected to move in late this evening into the early morning hours on Friday and affect mainly southern portions of the area. We expect this line to be on a weakening trend, however gusty winds and heavy rain can be expected. There is the possibility of a wake low developing late tonight behind the line of showers and storms, bringing gusty winds to the coastal and marine area. The left over boundary from the morning convection will lift northward as a warm front through the day on Friday and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development. The pre-storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values as high as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. The tornado threat, while non-zero, will be mitigated due to the weak low level shear values. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for severe storms on Friday. Another shortwave and associated MCS is expected to approach the area Friday afternoon/evening. These storms could again pose a damaging wind and large hail threat.
Additional showers and storms are possible into Saturday as the approaching cold front.
The multiple rounds of rain on already saturated grounds will create the risk for flooding through Saturday. WPC had a moderate risk across northwest portions of the area with a slight risk across the remainder of the area. We have issued a Flood Watch for the entire area starting tonight at midnight. A high risk of rip currents is in effect from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon. /13
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Active weather continues into Saturday as a final shortwave ejects northeastward across the local area. At the surface, hi-res model guidance suggests that a remnant outflow boundary from previous storms should be lingering across the area, possibly near the I-65 corridor. This outflow will serve as a focus for one last round of showers and storms to develop as the shortwave passes overhead. The primary concern with these storms will be heavy, training rainfall which could lead to continued flooding concerns across the area, especially over areas that see a copious amount of rainfall on Friday. Because of this, the Flood Watch will remain in effect through early Saturday afternoon (although if rainfall lingers a bit longer, then a small extension to the watch is possible). Deep-layer shear remains rather strong (around 50 knots) as a mid to upper jet develops overhead, however, the biggest question will be if we can destabilize again in the wake of the storms that moved through the area the previous night. If we can destabilize, then shear will be strong enough to allow for some storm organization, which could lead to the development of a few strong to severe storms. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place across much of the area on Saturday to account for this possibility.
The main trough passes overhead Saturday night, with rain chances quickly decreasing from west to east throughout the overnight hours as a drier airmass advects in from the northwest. Highs on Saturday will reach the low to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will only drop into the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s along the immediate coast.
The rip current risk remains high through the period. /96
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Upper-level troughing will slowly push into the western Atlantic as an upper ridge builds over the western Gulf. Subsidence from this ridge, along with high pressure developing over the southeast US, will keep the local area dry through at least Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered rain chances return to the forecast by midweek as a shortwave moves across the Tennessee River Valley and the ridge sinks back to the southwest. Temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast.
/96
MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Southerly winds will increase to moderate by Friday, along with building seas, ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. It should be noted that a wake low may possibly develop late tonight behind the initial line of storms, which could lead to a brief window of gusty winds for marine zones near the coast. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 82 67 88 67 90 69 88 / 60 80 30 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 82 71 87 70 88 71 87 / 60 80 40 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 81 72 85 72 85 72 84 / 40 80 40 10 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 68 83 66 87 64 89 65 90 / 70 90 40 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 66 84 65 88 64 91 66 91 / 70 70 20 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 83 65 86 64 88 64 89 / 80 80 30 10 0 0 0 0 Crestview 70 82 67 88 64 90 64 90 / 50 90 40 10 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL | 12 mi | 177 min | 80°F | 29.82 | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 12 mi | 102 min | 0 | 75°F | 29.83 | 74°F | ||
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 21 mi | 47 min | SE 14G | 79°F | 79°F | 29.79 | 74°F | |
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 21 mi | 57 min | 0G | 79°F | 29.80 | |||
| EFLA1 | 22 mi | 57 min | 79°F | 74°F | ||||
| FRMA1 | 22 mi | 57 min | S 8G | 80°F | 29.78 | 79°F | ||
| DILA1 | 26 mi | 57 min | S 15G | 79°F | 79°F | 29.79 | ||
| DPHA1 | 26 mi | 177 min | 79°F | 80°F | 29.27 | |||
| CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL | 28 mi | 147 min | 83°F | 30.25 | ||||
| MBPA1 | 28 mi | 57 min | 79°F | 73°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 31 mi | 57 min | W 4.1G | 79°F | 78°F | 29.84 | ||
| PTOA1 | 31 mi | 57 min | 79°F | 71°F | ||||
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 33 mi | 57 min | 79°F | 78°F | 29.88 | |||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 43 mi | 102 min | SE 14 | 79°F | 29.80 | 74°F | ||
| PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 49 mi | 57 min | SSE 15G | 78°F | 29.79 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJKA JACK EDWARDS NATIONAL,AL | 6 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 75°F | 100% | 29.82 | |
| KNPA PENSACOLA NAS/FORREST SHERMAN FIELD,FL | 15 sm | 30 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.80 | |
| KCQF H L SONNY CALLAHAN,AL | 16 sm | 11 min | NNW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 29.85 | |||
| KPNS PENSACOLA INTL,FL | 24 sm | 33 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 70°F | 78% | 29.80 |
Bon Secour
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:14 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:36 AM CDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 01:39 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 PM CDT 1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:14 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:36 AM CDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 01:39 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 PM CDT 1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:15 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM CDT 1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:40 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:48 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:40 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:15 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM CDT 1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:40 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:48 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:40 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.5 |
| 1 am |
| -1.4 |
| 2 am |
| -1.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.9 |
| 4 am |
| -0.6 |
| 5 am |
| -0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.9 |
Mobile, AL,
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