LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

There is some evidence of this pattern breaking down as the upper low moves NW to the Cali coast nudging the stacked SW high to the east a bit. Our area then transfers to an easterly flow regime by a as this high kicks the upper trough eastward. This will definitely cut down the precip chances, but won't zero them out. This should drop the area back to the normal hit and miss 30-40% chance of rain by the start of the new work week. This will be a transition day or two where things become stagnant as flow regime changes from westerly to easterly. During this time frame, when storms are not moving much, there would be a high chance of heavy rainfall staying over one locations for longer periods even though our rain chances are easing a bit.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Most terminals will be VFR with all having equal high chances of getting IFR in TSRA today. Coastal sites should have better chances during the morning and inland sites during the hotter portion of the day. By late evening, VFR conditons should be the rule with only one or two having vis restrictions overnight as most sh/ts activity decay.

MARINE
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Outside any storms, which will be plentiful, winds and seas should be on the low side as winds should remain 10kt or less. These basic conditions should repeat through this week. Winds should become light and variable by the start of the new week with lower chances of storms around each day, but storms that do occur will still have the ability to produce strong winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 87 73 89 73 / 80 30 80 10 BTR 90 76 92 76 / 80 30 90 10 ASD 90 76 92 76 / 90 30 90 20 MSY 90 78 91 78 / 80 20 90 20 GPT 89 77 91 77 / 80 30 80 30 PQL 93 76 94 76 / 70 30 80 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.