Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lost Creek, TX
March 19, 2024 7:25 AM CDT (12:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:33 AM Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 1:51 PM Moonset 3:40 AM |
Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 191108 AAA AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 608 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mid to high clouds continue to stream in overhead out of the southwest as the cut-off low remains parked over Southern California. This will continue to funnel eastern Pacific moisture into South-Central Texas, resulting in the aforementioned cloud cover. Overall, some rather chilly temperatures can be expected through the short term forecast, with mornings in the 40s and afternoons in the 60s both today and Wednesday. Cloud cover will be mostly responsible for the cooler temperatures. Not much else to be said for the short term period, as the approaching disturbance within the longwave flow will work into the area by Wednesday night, which is into the long term period.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
On Wednesday night, forcing for ascent will be approaching the area as an upper tough axis moves east into the Southern Plains. Models are showing a lead shortwave impacting the area Wednesday night.
This should allow for air parcels to rise, but questions remain on the strength of an expected elevated mixed-layer or capping inversion in place. Model soundings from the NAM show a large cap in place which should limit any deep convection, while the Fv3 shows a weaker CAP with some scattered strong convection. Will know more as we get into today once the this time period gets into the extended HRRR. Regardless of whether or not deep convection is able to initialize, there should be some expectation for showers or drizzle underneath the capping inversion. Therefore PoPs will remain on the elevated side Wednesday night. The latest SPC Day 2 outlook shows a level 1 or marginal risk of severe storms for most areas outside of the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country. This seems reasonable but is conditional on the cap breaking. Large hail and perhaps damaging winds would be the main risk.
As we progress into Thursday, a second round of convection may be possible as the base of the upper trough moves into the area.
Instability and shear amounts will also support another chance of some strong storms before activity exits to the east by the late afternoon hours. Temperatures Thursday and through the remainder of the long-term portion of the forecast will be on the warmer side with highs in the 70s and 80s across the region. The forecast Friday through Sunday should be dry as zonal flow aloft prevails over the region. The next storm system looks to arrive Monday into Tuesday and will bring with it another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
There is high consensus with the medium range guidance of decent chances of widespread rain. As of now, strong to severe chances are somewhat questionable as instability amounts don't appear to be too strong. Will continue to assess this potential over the next several days.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The primary changes for this forecast period were to introduce MVFR cigs at all sites on Wednesday morning. Beginning at DRT around 08Z and sliding eastward through SAT/SSF by 08/09Z and reaching AUS by 14Z Wednesday. Some drizzle and patchy fog may accompany the lower clouds on Wednesday morning, however confidence is low and no visibility or weather types have been added to the latest forecast.
Winds will shift to more of a southerly direction, around 160-170 today, followed by a more variable southerly wind at less than 5 kts after sunset this evening. Increasing confidence in widespread IFR ceilings after 15Z tomorrow morning, but for now, will wait for increased model agreement.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 65 51 68 58 / 0 0 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 48 67 57 / 0 0 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 49 67 58 / 0 0 10 50 Burnet Muni Airport 65 47 68 57 / 0 0 0 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 53 75 60 / 10 0 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 48 68 57 / 0 0 0 40 Hondo Muni Airport 60 47 66 56 / 10 0 10 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 48 66 57 / 0 0 10 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 51 68 59 / 0 0 0 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 50 65 58 / 10 0 10 50 Stinson Muni Airport 62 51 67 60 / 10 0 10 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 608 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mid to high clouds continue to stream in overhead out of the southwest as the cut-off low remains parked over Southern California. This will continue to funnel eastern Pacific moisture into South-Central Texas, resulting in the aforementioned cloud cover. Overall, some rather chilly temperatures can be expected through the short term forecast, with mornings in the 40s and afternoons in the 60s both today and Wednesday. Cloud cover will be mostly responsible for the cooler temperatures. Not much else to be said for the short term period, as the approaching disturbance within the longwave flow will work into the area by Wednesday night, which is into the long term period.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
On Wednesday night, forcing for ascent will be approaching the area as an upper tough axis moves east into the Southern Plains. Models are showing a lead shortwave impacting the area Wednesday night.
This should allow for air parcels to rise, but questions remain on the strength of an expected elevated mixed-layer or capping inversion in place. Model soundings from the NAM show a large cap in place which should limit any deep convection, while the Fv3 shows a weaker CAP with some scattered strong convection. Will know more as we get into today once the this time period gets into the extended HRRR. Regardless of whether or not deep convection is able to initialize, there should be some expectation for showers or drizzle underneath the capping inversion. Therefore PoPs will remain on the elevated side Wednesday night. The latest SPC Day 2 outlook shows a level 1 or marginal risk of severe storms for most areas outside of the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country. This seems reasonable but is conditional on the cap breaking. Large hail and perhaps damaging winds would be the main risk.
As we progress into Thursday, a second round of convection may be possible as the base of the upper trough moves into the area.
Instability and shear amounts will also support another chance of some strong storms before activity exits to the east by the late afternoon hours. Temperatures Thursday and through the remainder of the long-term portion of the forecast will be on the warmer side with highs in the 70s and 80s across the region. The forecast Friday through Sunday should be dry as zonal flow aloft prevails over the region. The next storm system looks to arrive Monday into Tuesday and will bring with it another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
There is high consensus with the medium range guidance of decent chances of widespread rain. As of now, strong to severe chances are somewhat questionable as instability amounts don't appear to be too strong. Will continue to assess this potential over the next several days.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The primary changes for this forecast period were to introduce MVFR cigs at all sites on Wednesday morning. Beginning at DRT around 08Z and sliding eastward through SAT/SSF by 08/09Z and reaching AUS by 14Z Wednesday. Some drizzle and patchy fog may accompany the lower clouds on Wednesday morning, however confidence is low and no visibility or weather types have been added to the latest forecast.
Winds will shift to more of a southerly direction, around 160-170 today, followed by a more variable southerly wind at less than 5 kts after sunset this evening. Increasing confidence in widespread IFR ceilings after 15Z tomorrow morning, but for now, will wait for increased model agreement.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 65 51 68 58 / 0 0 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 48 67 57 / 0 0 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 49 67 58 / 0 0 10 50 Burnet Muni Airport 65 47 68 57 / 0 0 0 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 53 75 60 / 10 0 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 48 68 57 / 0 0 0 40 Hondo Muni Airport 60 47 66 56 / 10 0 10 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 48 66 57 / 0 0 10 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 51 68 59 / 0 0 0 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 50 65 58 / 10 0 10 50 Stinson Muni Airport 62 51 67 60 / 10 0 10 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRYW LAGO VISTA TX RUSTY ALLEN,TX | 12 sm | 10 min | ENE 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 45°F | 34°F | 66% | 30.26 | |
KAUS AUSTINBERGSTROM INTL,TX | 14 sm | 32 min | NNE 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 45°F | 39°F | 81% | 30.26 | |
KEDC AUSTIN EXECUTIVE,TX | 14 sm | 10 min | calm | 9 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 45°F | 37°F | 76% | 30.26 | |
KGTU GEORGETOWN MUNI,TX | 23 sm | 29 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 41°F | 37°F | 87% | 30.29 |
Central Texas,
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