Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshallberg, NC
March 19, 2024 10:12 AM ADT (13:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:21 AM Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 2:03 PM Moonset 3:53 AM |
AMZ065 Atlantic From 29n To 31n Between 70w And 74w- 400 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
.gale warning - .
Today - W of 72w, nw winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming nw to N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. E of 72w, nw winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in nw swell.
Tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in nw swell.
Wed - W of 72w, W winds 10 to 15 kt. E of 72w, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N swell.
Wed night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in nw to N swell.
Thu - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in nw swell.
Thu night - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri - E to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri night - SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in se swell.
Sat - SE to S winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
Sat night - S to sw winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
AMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 191042 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 642 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 0635 Tuesday...All shower activity has pushed offshore and skies continue to clear as high pressure builds over the FA from the W. Winds gusty at times early with Nerly surge of CAA but will relax while backing to become Werly by this afternoon as the jets embedded in the trough aloft push offshore through the morning. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for all of Mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section below for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s, low 50s OBX.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 0400 Tuesday...Quiet night on tap with high pressure continuing to build over the FA and flow aloft becoming more zonal briefly with base of the upper level trough over ECONUS broadening as one shortwave exits the region to the NE and another digging down the Wern half of the trough toward the Great Lakes. A light SWerly breeze through the overnight will keep WAA in place which will lead to warmer MinTs than MON night despite the clear skies and high pressure nearby. MinTs low 40s away from immediate coast, mid 40s to low 50s beaches.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the area, which could linger into early next week.
Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.
Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. The GFS continues to be the more progressive solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger sfc low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At this time best rain chances will be Friday night into Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night.
Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue to fine tune specifics over the next few days.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 0640 Tuesday...VFR flight cats with gusty winds expected through the TAF period. SKC lasts into midweek now that the trough axis has cleared area terminals. Gusty winds again today will be the only concern; NWerly early, backing to become Werly in the afternoon, SWerly this evening. No fog concerns with very dry air mass in place and light breeze persisting overnight.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday and Saturday with low pressure system impacting the area. Rain chances increase through the day Friday, becoming widespread moderate to heavy at times Friday night into Saturday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tues Night/...
As of 0640 Tuesday...Threat of infrequent 35-40kt gusts has ended this morning. Have updated the MWW to better represent the windspeeds that can be expected for the duration of the SCAs.
Rest of the forecast remains on track.
Previous Disco as of 0400 Tuesday...Gusty N-NWerly winds early as axis of shortwave in upper trough passes departs. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. An SCA is in place for all waters through the day, however there will be a period of sub- SCA conditions this afternoon as high pressure builds in, relaxing winds while backing to become Werly 10-15kt this afternoon. Conditions deteriorate again this evening and tonight as winds continue to veer to become SWerly 15-20G25kt by 2000edt, SWerly 20-25G30kt by midnight local. Seas are currently 4-7ft forecast to subside to 2-5ft by this afternoon, increasing again overnight with the strengthening winds to 4-7ft.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas 3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters through Wed eve/night. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours Thursday morning. Flow will grad veer Thu night becoming E 10-15 kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.
Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week, as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.
FIRE WEATHER
As of 250 AM Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today. The day shift will reassess the need for another IFD SPS WED,
Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland, 25-30% coast, and breezy NWerly winds early becoming Werly 10-15mph with gusts 20-25 mph.
Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 250 AM Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-136- 137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 642 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 0635 Tuesday...All shower activity has pushed offshore and skies continue to clear as high pressure builds over the FA from the W. Winds gusty at times early with Nerly surge of CAA but will relax while backing to become Werly by this afternoon as the jets embedded in the trough aloft push offshore through the morning. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for all of Mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section below for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s, low 50s OBX.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 0400 Tuesday...Quiet night on tap with high pressure continuing to build over the FA and flow aloft becoming more zonal briefly with base of the upper level trough over ECONUS broadening as one shortwave exits the region to the NE and another digging down the Wern half of the trough toward the Great Lakes. A light SWerly breeze through the overnight will keep WAA in place which will lead to warmer MinTs than MON night despite the clear skies and high pressure nearby. MinTs low 40s away from immediate coast, mid 40s to low 50s beaches.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the area, which could linger into early next week.
Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.
Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. The GFS continues to be the more progressive solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger sfc low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At this time best rain chances will be Friday night into Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night.
Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue to fine tune specifics over the next few days.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 0640 Tuesday...VFR flight cats with gusty winds expected through the TAF period. SKC lasts into midweek now that the trough axis has cleared area terminals. Gusty winds again today will be the only concern; NWerly early, backing to become Werly in the afternoon, SWerly this evening. No fog concerns with very dry air mass in place and light breeze persisting overnight.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday and Saturday with low pressure system impacting the area. Rain chances increase through the day Friday, becoming widespread moderate to heavy at times Friday night into Saturday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tues Night/...
As of 0640 Tuesday...Threat of infrequent 35-40kt gusts has ended this morning. Have updated the MWW to better represent the windspeeds that can be expected for the duration of the SCAs.
Rest of the forecast remains on track.
Previous Disco as of 0400 Tuesday...Gusty N-NWerly winds early as axis of shortwave in upper trough passes departs. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. An SCA is in place for all waters through the day, however there will be a period of sub- SCA conditions this afternoon as high pressure builds in, relaxing winds while backing to become Werly 10-15kt this afternoon. Conditions deteriorate again this evening and tonight as winds continue to veer to become SWerly 15-20G25kt by 2000edt, SWerly 20-25G30kt by midnight local. Seas are currently 4-7ft forecast to subside to 2-5ft by this afternoon, increasing again overnight with the strengthening winds to 4-7ft.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas 3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters through Wed eve/night. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours Thursday morning. Flow will grad veer Thu night becoming E 10-15 kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.
Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week, as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.
FIRE WEATHER
As of 250 AM Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today. The day shift will reassess the need for another IFD SPS WED,
Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland, 25-30% coast, and breezy NWerly winds early becoming Werly 10-15mph with gusts 20-25 mph.
Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 250 AM Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-136- 137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.
Airport Reports
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