Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:01PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:31 PM ADT (15:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:53AMMoonset 3:58PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 171429
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1029 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure moves off the coast today. A cold front will
move into the area this weekend and stall. This front will move
south of the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1030 am Thursday... Morning fog has burned off with an
expanding CU field developing inland. An area of enhanced clouds
along the nc va border should skirt to our north. High
resolution guidance still seems to pinpoint inland areas,
roughly along and west of a line from jacksonville to new bern
to washington, for isolated to scattered convection this
afternoon. Highs expected around 90 inland to mid 80s along the
coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 320 am Thursday... Inland showers expected to diminish
during the evening with loss of heating but the upper ridge
pushes east after midnight with shortwave energy approaching
from the west and could see a few showers moving into the
coastal plain after midnight and may isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly west
of highway 17. Light southerly winds and increasing clouds with
an approaching system expected to limit fog development tonight
but could see patchy light fog late bringing mainly MVFR vsbys.

Could also see a few showers move into the region after
midnight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 310 am Thursday...VFR conditions see a few showers off
the water pushing into southern coastal sections. Patchy fog
possible late but light winds isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly west of highway
17. Light southerly winds and increasing clouds with an
approaching system expected to limit fog development tonight but
could see patchy light fog late bringing mainly MVFR vsbys.

Could also see a few showers move into the region after
midnight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 310 am Thursday...VFR conditions increasing cloud
coverage expected to keep the fog pretty light. Lows expected in
the mid 70s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 3 am Thursday... A more unsettled pattern is expected
Friday and Saturday, before slightly drier air takes hold Sunday
into early next week. An approaching mid-level trough will lead
to better rain chances by the middle of next week.

Friday through Saturday... A northward moving frontal trough
Friday will lead to an increase in low-level moisture and
instability and higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours Friday and
Saturday. Instability will be especially high for Friday with
forecast CAPE values in excess of 3000 j kg and LI values in the
range of -8 to -10 during peak heating. Will have high chance
pops Friday and Saturday. A decent mid-level shortwave may also
keep storms going over the northern tier Friday night and will
have high chance pops north and slight chance south overnight
Friday night. Temperatures will also be quite warm Friday with
the SW winds, reaching the lower 90s over all but the immediate
coast. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler for Saturday,
but still warm and very humid.

Sunday through Tuesday... Somewhat drier conditions are expected
Sunday into Tuesday as a mid-level ridge expands across the
area leading to hot temperatures and less convection as
precipitable water values drop to 1.5 inches or less for a
couple of days. There may be a few storms along the sea breeze,
but pops will be below climo through this period.

Wednesday... Upper ridge retrogrades to the west as a
strengthening mid-level trough dives south across the eastern
portion of the country. This will lead to better chances of
showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday into the latter part of
next week.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am Thursday... Fog wasn't quite as widespread as expected
this morning and should burn off in the next hour or two with
predVFR conditions by mid morning. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly west
of highway 17. Light southerly winds and increasing clouds with
an approaching system expected to limit fog development tonight
but could see patchy light fog late bringing mainly MVFR vsbys.

Could also see a few showers move into the region after
midnight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 310 am Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail for much of
the extended period. However, occasional MVFR ceilings and vsbys
may occur in scattered convection Friday and Saturday with some
locally heavy downpours and gusty winds probable. A somewhat
drier pattern will lead to much smaller chances of precipitation
Sunday and Monday. Some early morning fog and patchy stratus
may also be possible in areas that receive decent rainfall
through the period.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1030 am Thursday... Weak high pressure moves off the mid-
atlantic coast today allowing light northerly flow below 10
knots to veer to south through the afternoon. Southerly flow
around 5-15 kt expected tonight with slight tightening of
gradients as a system approaches from the west. Seas will remain
around 2-3 ft through the period.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 315 am Thursday... A fairly quiet marine forecast through
the extended period. High pressure offshore will lead to several
days of SW winds at 15 knots or less. Seas will generally run
2-4 feet through the extended period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Eh sk
short term... Sk
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk


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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.