Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:21PM Monday May 29, 2017 12:04 PM ADT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 291349
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
949 am edt Mon may 29 2017

A weak cold front will approach from the northwest today and
tonight, then drift into the region Tuesday. The front will
stall near the area through mid to late week then dissipate.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 950 am Monday... Latest visible satellite imagery shows
clear skies area-wide as low clouds have dissipated over the
albemarle sound and northern outer banks. The 12z morehead city
sounding was much drier, especially above 850 mb, with deep
westerly flow. This should limit convection through 00z and have
dropped pops for this time period. Most all of the high-
resolution models including the hrrr, 3km NAM and rap show
a cluster of showers thunderstorms to enter our CWA from the
west after 00z tonight. Temperatures already off to a very warm
start and many spots, especially near the coast, should
experience their warmest day of the year thus far with highs
around 90 along the crystal coast, lower 90s inland and
mid upper 80s along the central and northern outer banks today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 230 am mon... Limited precip chcs into evening then as
weak front drifts SE toward NRN tier and weak short wave
approaches aloft expecting increasing shra and a few storms
overnight. By the time better forcing and moisture arrives
instab will be waning and shld limit svr threat. Have slight
pops in evening ramping up to good chc most areas late. Cont
warm and muggy with lows mainly 70 to 75.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 4 am mon... An unsettled pattern will be the rule through
most of the long term period as shortwaves disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of subtle short waves passing through the region.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... A weak front is expected to stall across
or just northwest of the area Tuesday with additional short
wave energy passing through. Tuesday convective chances will
depend on what happens to potential Monday night convective
complex that passes through. Potential boundary will be laid
down and will determine where thundershowers develop on Tuesday.

Meso model suite is all over the place with location and timing
of best pops, so have broad 40 pop through the entire day for
the fa. Better moisture will be focused along the stalled front
and channeled shortwave vorticity over the region coincident
with peak afternoon heating if morning clouds dissipate. More
cloud cover and lower thicknesses will keep MAX temps mainly in
the 80s. Lows Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. Spc
continues the entire area under a marginal risk of severe for
their day 2 outlook with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Thursday... Another weak front will sag southeast into
the region Wednesday, serving as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be more marginal than
previous mon-tues, thus while thunderstorms will be possible,
severe potential appears much more limited at this time. Also,
hts are a bit higher and think storms will be more diurnally
driven and only isolated in nature, therefore only advertising a
20 pop for Wed and thu. Low level thicknesses near 1400 meters
supporting MAX temps in the mid upr 80s inland to around 80 for
the beaches.

Friday-Sunday... Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks and
followed closely with blended guidance approach wpc ecmmos
guide. Generally expecting increasing precip chances through the
weekend, with a 20-30 pop fri, 30-50 pop for the weekend. Max
temps continue quite warm with 85-90 interior to around 80 on
the beaches. Lows continue muggy with upr 60s low 70s.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 am mon...VFR expected to dominate thru mid evening
then may see pds of subVFR as sct shra tsra increase later
tonight. Some light fog or stratus trying to develop at oaj but
will quickly dissipate with Sun coming up. Models cont to show
little to no precip thru early evening and expect mainly sct cu
this aftn with wsw low lvl flow.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 4 am mon... MainlyVFR through the period, though ocnl
periods of subVFR in showers and storms for Tuesday. Less
coverage for Wednesday into Thursday as a weak front should wash
out while moving offshore. Better chances for ocnl subVFR
again by Friday as better moisture comes into the area with
showers storms possible.

Short term today and tonight ...

as of 950 am Monday... Minimal changes needed to the current
marine forecast as winds are generally west at 5-15 knots with
seas 2-4 feet, except a few 5-footers around diamond shoals.

These conditions will continue through the afternoon. Fairly
light SW winds will cont over SRN tier tonight with winds
becoming light and variable NRN tier as weak front drifts into

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 4 am mon... The period will experience zonal flow with
weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into the
area. Mainly SW winds 5-15 kt for the marine domain through the
period. The northern waters will see some periods of shifting
winds as the lingering front may pass through at times but with
speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some periods
of seas building to 5 feet for outer portions with stronger sw
winds around 20 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-4 feet during
the extended period. Nwps and wavewatch in good agreement
through the period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Ctc
short term... Rf
long term... Dag tl
aviation... Rf tl
marine... Rf ctc tl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.