Friday, September21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:17PM Friday September 21, 2018 12:17 PM ADT (15:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211337
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
937 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger across the eastern
carolinas through the weekend. A weak front will drop into the area
early next week. A stronger cold front will impact the area late in the
week with cooler and drier air.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 930 am Friday... Fcst in good shape with no changes
planned. High pres will keep skies mclr with highs in the 80s.

Prev disc... No major changes to the current forecast as surface
high pressure ridging south from new england coupled with a
strong mid-level ridge will lead to another dry and pleasant day
across eastern nc. Under sunny skies, highs will reach the mid
80s in most areas, but dewpoints will be in the pleasant 60s.

This will set up another good day for hurricane recovery
activities across eastern nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 335 am Friday... The axis of the surface high pressure
ridge will gradually start to shift offshore tonight, but not
before providing another pleasant night. Skies will be mostly
clear inland with a few patchy clouds near the coast. Expect low
temperatures to drop into the mid upper 60s most areas, with
lower 70s over the outer banks.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 4 am Friday... Shortwave energy moves well north of the
area early Saturday acting to suppress the upper ridge across
the area while a cold front pushes south to near the nc va
border. Expect mainly dry conditions much of the day but could
see an isolated shower or thunderstorm late in the day across
the northern tier as the cold front nears the area. Temps are
expected to be around 5 degrees above normal with low level
thicknesses supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Strong high pressure building in from the north will serve to
push the front through the area Sunday and expect scattered
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with frontal
forcing. Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe
limits with only modest instability and limited upper level
support despite somewhat improved shear across the region. N ne
flow will allow highs to be a few degrees cooler with highs in
the mid 80s inland to around 80 NE coast.

Predominantly E SE flow across the area Monday and Tuesday with
high pressure sliding off the new england coast and an area of
low pressure moving westward beneath the high towards the
southeast coast Tuesday. Sufficient moisture, instability and
shear will be present to bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the region though expect most storms to remain
below severe limits. High Monday expected in the low to mid 80s
once again, but low level thicknesses begin to increase Tuesday
with highs expected to generally be in the mid 80s.

High pressure will be centered off the SE coast Wednesday and
Thursday with SW flow continuing to bringing a warm, moist and
unstable airmass across the region with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. High will continue to be in the mid

Aviation 13z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 12z Saturday ...

as of 645 am Friday... Only some brief patches of dense fog were
observed at at kpgv and koaj this morning. MainlyVFR conditions
are expected through this TAF cycle. Conditions look a bit more
favorable for fog later tonight early Saturday morning, and will
forecast a period of MVFR fog early Saturday morning.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 430 am Friday... PredVFR conditions expected much of the
period though patchy late night early morning fog possible each
morning. Also could see isolated to scattered afternoon evening
showers or thunderstorms with somewhat better chances Monday and

Short term through tonight ...

as of 930 am Friday... Fcst looks good with NE winds 10 to 15
kts with a few gusts to near 20 kts. Ene swell will keep seas
elevated over NRN half of wtrs.

Prev disc... Northeast swells have subsided and seas have
dropped to 5 feet or less, so allowed small craft advisory to
expire at 6 am this morning. Winds should continue mostly NE e
at 10 to occasionally 15 knots today, with seas mostly 3-5 feet.

Latest local swan model does indicate another round of
increased swell energy late tonight, but will cap seas at 5 feet
for now over the central waters.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 5 am Friday... High pressure gradually weakens across the
waters Saturday as a cold front drops to near or just south of
the nc va border and expect S SE wind mainly below 10 kt with
seas around 3-5 ft northern waters and 2-4 ft south. Nwps does
show a small area of 6 ft seas across the outer portions of the
central waters through Saturday night but wavewatch is not
higher than 5 ft and will cap at this level for now.

The front pushes south of the area Sunday with strong high
pressure builds in from the north and expect winds to become
n NE during the day Sunday, then predominantly NE 10-15 kt
Sunday night. Seas continue around 3-4 ft north with up to 5 ft
central waters, and 2-4 ft southern waters.

High pressure slides off the new england coast Monday and
Tuesday while continuing to ridge into the region and expect e
winds around 10-20 kt Monday, trending to the SE Tuesday as a
weak are of low pressure moves westward to ward the southeast
coast. With a prolonged fetch of E winds, seas are expected to
build early next week to 5-8 ft northern central waters and 3-6
ft southern waters Monday night into Tuesday.

As of 345 am Friday... Major flooding continues
for inland rivers. Heed all local law enforcement instructions
and do not drive into flooded roadways.

Areal and river flood warnings continue farther inland and
south. Warnings here will persist as water upstream continues
to flow through rivers across eastern nc. The neuse, trent and
cape fear rivers will likely take the longest to fully
recede... With forecasts remaining well above flood stage through
the remainder of the week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz103.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Rf ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Rf ctc sk
hydrology... Mhx

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.