Thursday, June20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

Version 3.4
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:52 AM ADT (04:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:42PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200239
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1039 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

The region will remain between high pressure well offshore and
low pressure over the great lakes through tomorrow night, when
a cold front approaches from the west. More settled weather
returns later Friday and into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 11 pm wed... Expect lingering showers along the shores of
the pamlico sound and the albemarle sound roanoke river region
to diminish over the next hour or two as diurnal cooling
suppresses any remaining boundary layer based instability.

Despite pwats near 2 inches on the 00z kmhx sounding, mainly dry
conditions will prevail overnight given modest profile lapse
rates and the absence of any significant lifting mechanism.

Partly cloudy conditions are expected for most areas, with
mostly cloudy conditions closer to the southern coast where
marine stratus should once again push onshore late. Temps remain
very warm overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 200 pm wed... A stronger shortwave vort MAX will round the
broader upper level trough tomorrow, and reach eastern nc by
the afternoon. While at the surface strong SW winds will
continue, and a prefrontal surface trough may also develop
across inland nc. High humidity and hot temperatures will also
be present which will allow MUCAPE values to climb above 2000
j kg with many locations approaching 3000 j kg. All this
combined with strengthening deep layer shear of 30+ kts, will
translate to a increased threat of severe weather tomorrow, and
the SPC has included the whole area in a slight risk. As for
timing, it looks like a solid consensus in high res models that
robust thunderstorm development will hold off until late in the
afternoon to early evening in eastern nc.

It will also be very hot tomorrow, as increased low level
heights and mostly sunny skies will allow temps to climb into
the mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s closer to the
coast. With dewpoints in the mid 70s (even some upper 70s along
the coast), heat indices are expected to range from 100-105 in
the afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 325 pm Wednesday... The potential for some locally strong
to severe storms will continue into Thursday night, before drier
air filters into the region behind a cold front early Friday,
providing quiet weather through Saturday. A warm unstable
airmass returns Sunday through the middle of next week, but with
weak upper ridging, rain chances will remain fairly low.

Thursday night... High-resolution models showing a couple of
lines of strong to potentially severe storms to impact the cwa
during Thursday evening into Thursday night. The initial line
may impact the albemarle sound region with a second line moving
across the central and southern zones and offshore by around 06z
or so Friday morning. Strong gusty winds will be the primary
threat in any potential severe storms. Low temperatures will be
in the low mid 70s by Friday morning.

Friday through Saturday... As cold front moves offshore early
Friday, lower dewpoints will advect into the region with the
precipitable water briefly going below 1 inch Friday afternoon
into Saturday. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with
highs into the upper 80s to around 90 inland, and low mid 80s
outer banks, but dewpoints should be in the more comfortable 60s
Friday and Saturday afternoons.

Sunday through Wednesday... High pressure will re-establish
itself offshore by the latter part of the weekend with a S sw
flow returning enhancing low-level moisture across the region,
as dewpoints return to the 70s. Widely scattered convection
will form on the sea breeze each afternoon, but with decent mid-
level ridging in place, will keep pops on the low-end of the
spectrum with 20-30 pct each afternoon. Temperatures will be
quite warm Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low mid 90s with
heat indices near 100 degrees.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tomorrow afternoon ...

as of 730 pm wed...VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the night, though sct to bkn stratus are expected to push onshore
from the southern coast once again late. Several hours of MVFR
ceilings are possible for mainly koaj and kewn around sunrise,
but winds should remain elevated enough and low level moisture
should be too limited for ifr conditions.VFR is expected to
prevail Thursday with mostly dry conditions and gusty southwest

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... Sub-vfr conditions will be possible in
scattered showers and tstms Thursday evening, before the
activity moves east of the TAF sites overnight into early Friday
morning. Some storms late Thursday evening could be locally
strong to severe. PredominantVFR conditions expected Friday and
Saturday as dry air filters in behind cold front. A return to
sea breeze thunderstorms can be expected Sunday and Monday with
brief reductions in ceilings and vsbys. Some early morning
fog stratus may occur in areas that receive daytime rainfall as

Short term through Thursday ...

as of 1015 pm wed... Gusty southwest winds continue to spread
northward along the coast, with scas in place to cover gusts to
25+ kt overnight for the waters south of oregon inlet and the
croatan and roanoke sounds. The gradient will weaken mid to late
morning with winds subsiding to 15 to 20 kt across the waters
through midday, but an approaching cold front will bring the
return of gusty winds late in the day.

Seas are currently 3 to 5 ft, but 6 ft seas should start to
arrive later tonight as southerly windswell increases. Seas
will then increase further with the stronger winds arriving
Thursday afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... Gusty SW winds of 20-25 knots with
gusts to around 30 knots will continue on the coastal waters and
pamlico sound Thursday night before winds veer to west behind
the cold front early Friday morning and diminish to 15-20 knots.

With weak high pressure building in, winds should be mostly N nw
at 15 knots or less Friday night and Saturday, before becoming
s SW 10-15 knots again for Sunday into Monday as high pressure
builds offshore with seas 2-3 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Thursday through
Thursday evening for ncz195-196-204-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for amz135-231.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for amz154.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 8 am edt Friday for

Small craft advisory until noon edt Friday for amz152.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sgk cb
short term... Sgk
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc cb
marine... Ctc sgk cb

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.