Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday March 17, 2018 1:32 PM ADT (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 7:14PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 171352
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
952 am edt Sat mar 17 2018

A warm front will lift north into the area today, then move back
south as a cold front tonight. A strong area of low pressure
will affect the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure
will build in from the northwest late next week.

Near term today
As of 950 am sat... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure
anchored off the SE coast, with stationary front just to the
south. The stationary front that has sagged through E nc will
lift north this afternoon though not make it all the way
through, making temps and winds tricky. North of the boundary
for areas adjacent to the albemarle sound, winds will remain
easterly for the most part, while remainder of E nc gets into
southerly flow. Temps range widely as a result, with 50s for
highs NE zones to lower 70s SW zones. Adjusted pops slightly
based on high res guidance... Scattered showers likely move in
from the west this afternoon, then expect a lull this evening,
before better precip chances tonight.

Short term tonight
As of 950 am sat... Deeper moisture will gradually move in from
the south and west Saturday night as mid-level shortwave energy
dives south generating weak low pressure along or just south of
the nc coast. This will lead to a likely chance of showers late
Saturday night, ending before dawn Sunday. Instability still
looks limited overnight, mu CAPE values 250-500 j kg, but with
the boundary in the vicinity it could be enough to support
isolated strong thunderstorms. Added sc TSTM into forecast after
05z. Lows will range from the lower 40s north obx to mid upper
40s southwest.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 330 am Saturday... Low pressure will move away from the
coast early Sunday quickly taking away any leftover
precipitation. Surface high pressure and a mid-level ridge will
build over the region Sunday afternoon night into Monday before
moving offshore Monday afternoon. A strengthening closed mid-
level low will lead to rapid strengthening of a surface low that
will move across tennessee and intensify off the nc coast early
Tuesday at about 995 mb. Widespread showers will enter the
region Monday afternoon with the heaviest precipitation Monday
night. With strong low-level wind fields and backed SE flow,
there would be some concern for strong storms, but instability
appears to be limited to offshore areas at this time and will
continue to carry showers. A unsettled pattern looks to continue
Wednesday into Thursday as deep moisture swings through the
area with deep mid-level trough and strong shortwave energy.

Thermal profiles from both the GFS and ECMWF continue to support
a rain snow mix Wednesday night with light rain possible
Thursday. Have pops in the slight chance to low chance range at
this time, but with models showing a bit better agreement, may
be to raise those pops on later updates. Drier air returns
Friday with weak surface ridge building in from the northwest.

Temperatures will show wide variation through the extended
period with highs well into the 70s Tuesday in the S SW flow
ahead of the strong low, dropping into the lower 30s by Thursday
morning behind the low with the possible light rain snow mix.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through 06z Sunday ...

as of 950 am sat... Mid and high clouds will increase across the
region today as a low pressure system approaches from the west.

Scattered showers will develop late in the afternoon but it
will still be trying to overcome a very dry sub-cloud layer and
expect conditions to remainVFR through 00z. Sub-vfr in numerous
showers from late this evening through the overnight. Light
southeast winds this morning will veer to southwest 10-20 knots
this afternoon. Light west southwest winds less than 10 knots
this evening will veer to northeast after midnight.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 am Saturday... Conditions should deteriorate Saturday
night with periods of sub-vfr conditions in showers expected.

High pressure will bring drier air andVFR conditions Sunday
through about midday Monday. Deep moisture associated with the
next system will lead to widespread showers Monday night and
Tuesday with MVFR ifr conditions expected along with gusty SW w
winds. With lingering precipitation associated with a strong
upper-level feature, some MVFR ceilings with showers are
possible Wednesday.

Short term today and tonight ...

as of 950 am sat... Latest show light E SE winds 5-10 kt with
seas 2-4 ft, locally up to 5 ft off oregon inlet. Tricky wind
forecast comes into play today as stationary front to the south
moves north but stops short of the northern obx and albemarle
sound. Expect SW winds to increase to 15-25 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots for the central southern waters in the afternoon,
while remaining E and only 5-10 kt for the northern waters and
albemarle sound. Seas will build to SCA range central southern
waters by late afternoon and especially the evening. The
boundary will move back south late tonight, with winds
diminishing. The wind direction will shift to northeast over the
central waters late tonight, and over the southern waters early
Sunday morning. Seas will subside below 6 feet after midnight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 330 am Saturday... N winds at 15-20 knots initially on
Sunday will become E NE 5-15 knots Sunday night through Monday
with seas subsiding from 3-5 feet to 2-3 feet Monday as weak
high pressure settles over the waters. By Monday night, SE winds
increase to 15-20 knots with seas building to 4-6 feet. Winds
will veer to SW then W Tuesday into Wednesday with seas building
to as high as 9 feet in the central waters by Wednesday morning.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Sunday for amz152-154-156-158.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Cqd hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc hsa
marine... Ctc cqd hsa

Weather Reporting Stations
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.