Monday, March18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:30PM Monday March 18, 2019 12:28 PM ADT (15:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 5:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181345
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
945 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon and
early this evening. High pressure will build in from the
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday while a weak area of low
pressure will move near the coast late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, followed by a cold front late Thursday. High pressure
will build into the area late week and into the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 945 am Monday... Temperatures are rising quickly this
morning and with no cloud cover evident on satellite expect some
decent insolation before cloud cover builds this afternoon.

Thus, have nudged highs up a couple of degrees for today.

Otherwise, forecast is in excellent shape and no further
changes are needed.

Prev discussion... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure off
the mid- atlantic coast extending into the carolinas, with weak
low pressure lingering along a stalled frontal boundary well off
the SE coast. High pressure will weaken and continue to slide
eastward today as weak cold front moves in from the NW this
afternoon and evening. Moisture still looks somewhat limited
with this feature, but models seem to be trending slightly
wetter than previous runs. Given that trend and pretty good
forcing, increased pops slightly late afternoon and evening,
with best chances north of hwy 264. Mostly sunny skies early,
becoming partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon with
increasing mid clouds. Low level thickness values support temps
near normal, with highs in the mid upper 50s along the outer
banks and NE sections, and low mid 60s inland and southern
sections. Could see a few spots get into the upper 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 630 am mon... Strong shortwave and associated moisture
will slide offshore quickly by late evening, with shower
activity ending quickly from west to east. High pressure will
build in from the west late. Lows overnight dropping into the
low mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast.

Could see some patchy fog develop inland early Tue morning.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 230 am Monday... Broad upper troughing will reside over
the eastern united states through the work week. Low pressure
tracking well offshore could bring light rain Wednesday night
into Thursday with best chances near the coast, but otherwise
expect dry conditions. High pressure will build over the area
this weekend bringing a warming trend. Temperatures will be near
to slightly below normal mid week, warming to near or a bit
above normal late week and over the weekend.

Tuesday through Wednesday... A broad upper trough will continue
across the eastern CONUS this period with wnw flow aloft across
the carolinas and high pressure centered across the mid-atlantic
states into the south. A front will be stalled well offshore
while an area of low pressure lifts ene along the front.

Moisture will remain offshore and expect dry conditions across
eastern nc but could see a few showers offshore near the gulf
stream. Gradients will remain pinched between the high to the
north and the low tracking along the stalled front offshore
bringing breezy conditions along the coast Tue into Tue night,
then gradients begin to relax Wed as the surface high migrates
over the area ahead of a shortwave trough and surface front.

Temps will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the mid
to upper 50s Tue and upper 50s to lower 60s wed. Areas of frost
possible Tue night with lows in the mid 30s away from the
immediate coast. Lows will be around 40 along the coast.

Wednesday night through Thursday night... A robust upper trough
and attendant cold front will approach the area Wed night and
thu and move across the area Thu night. An area of low pressure
will develop along the stalled boundary offshore as upper level
dynamics improves with the left exit region of the upper jet
moving over the area. Could see a few showers pushing inland
from the coast if the low tracks close enough to shore, but most
models are keeping the moisture offshore with pw values
remaining around 1 2" or less over most of eastern nc and limit
pops to slight chance to low chance, highest along the coast.

The low moves away from the area Thu afternoon but a slight
chance showers continues into the afternoon with the approach
of the upper trough, mainly across the northern tier. Temps
continue to gradually moderate and are expected to be near
normal Thu with highs in the mid 60s inland to around 60 along
the coast. Patchy front possible inland Wed night with lows in
the mid 30s but expect low to mid 40s along the coast. Temps
expected to be a bit warmer Thu night with lows in the low to
mid 40s.

Friday through Sunday... The upper trough pushes offshore fri
with height rises through the weekend with an upper ridge and
surface high pressure becoming centered over the area sun. Dry
conditions continue with a continued warming trend. Highs
expected in the low to mid 60s inland to mid 50s coast Fri and
Saturday, with a few upper 60s possible southern sections sat.

Temps expected to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s inland to
low to mid 60s coast Sunday.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am mon... ExpectVFR conditions to prevail through the
taf period. Brief patchy fog early this morning at ewn and pgv,
will continue to tempo through 12z. A weak cold front will move
through the terminals this afternoon, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front. Some mid clouds will stream into the
area this afternoon and evening, then clearing tonight. An
isolated shower will be possible at pgv this evening. Patchy
fog will be possible inland late tonight and Tuesday morning.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 3 am Monday... PredVFR conditions expected through the
long term. An area of low pressure will track offshore Wed night
into Thu while an upper trough will push across the area late
thu and these features may bring light showers across routes
with best chances along the coast. Most models keep the precip
offshore withVFR continuing but cannot rule out periods of MVFR
conditions if precip does spread farther inland.

Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am mon... Latest obs show NE E winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-4 ft. High pressure in control will weaken and drift east
today as weak cold front approaches the waters. The front will
move through the waters late this afternoon and early evening.

E NE winds less than 15 kt continue today, with conditions
deteriorating tonight. Guidance continues to show N nne surge
15-25 kt developing this evening and overnight. Will begin scas
for the coastal waters, pamlico sound and the albemarle sound
and alligator rvr. Seas 2-4 ft today, then building to 4-6 ft
late tonight and early Tue morning.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 315 am Monday... Gradients across the waters remain
pinched Tue into Wed with high pressure centered to the N and w
and a stalled front offshore. NE expected around 15-25 kt tue
into Wed morning, then gradients begin to relax as the high
begins to migrate into the region with winds diminishing to
10-20 kt Wed afternoon and becoming N NW generally less than 15
kt Wed night into thu. Seas continue around 4-6 ft across the
northern waters and 5-9 ft across the central and southern
waters through Wed morning, then begin to subside to around 3-5
ft, except continuing around 4-6 ft across the central waters
wed night into thu. A cold front will push across the waters
late Thu with N NW winds increasing to 10-20 kt Thu night and
fri with seas building only slightly due to offshore flow.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am edt
Wednesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Tuesday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt
Thursday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 7 am edt
Wednesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd ms
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.