Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM   Moonset 8:23 AM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 334 Am Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am cdt this morning through late Sunday night - .
Today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to around 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 334 Am Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis - A strong southeasterly wind flow pattern will prevail over the marine area through the weekend with building seas. Southeasterly winds gradually diminish with subsiding seas during the early to middle part of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KMOB 271150 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 650 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent across our forecast area through the period. Broken mid/upper level cloud decks will continue to move overhead today but should gradually scatter out by this evening. Southeasterly winds will increase to 10-20 knots with a few gusts over 25 kt across much of the region today. /21

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 519 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft is taking shape across our forecast area between an upper level ridge of high pressure that is shifting to the east of our region early this morning and also well in advance of an upper level low pressure system over the western CONUS. Regional IR satellite imagery shows abundant mid and upper level cloud cover spreading over our region within the southwesterly flow pattern aloft early this morning. Temperatures are starting off quite mild in the lower to mid 60s over inland locations and generally around 70 degrees along the coast.

Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the Eastern Seaboard and New England states today, while the upper level low pressure system slowly makes its way across the southern Rockies. A decent MSLP gradient will set up across the north central Gulf Coast region today between a surface ridge of high pressure along the east coast/western Atlantic and an area of surface low pressure over the Plains. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected across our forecast area today with sustained wind speeds up to 15-25 mph along with a few gusts up to 30-35 mph possible at times. A dry forecast continues today and tonight. Highs today are once again expected to range in the lower to mid 80s over inland areas along and north of Interstate 10, while readings along the immediate coast should generally range in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight remain mild in the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.

A similar pattern continues on Sunday with upper ridging extending along the southeastern and eastern U.S. while the upper level low pressure system lifts into the central Plains. Southeasterly winds will remain elevated and gusty at times across our area again on Sunday. Some of the latest model guidance is indicating weak isentropic ascent in the vicinity of southeast MS by Sunday afternoon, which may result in the development of isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. We have introduced a 20% POP from west of Waynesboro down to around Wiggins.
Highs on Sunday continue to range in the lower to mid 80s inland and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

Coastal hazards: The increased southeasterly winds and persistent fetch will result in dangerous rip currents and building surf along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches today through early next week. The risk of rip currents will be HIGH along area beaches through the weekend and probably lasting through Tuesday night. Surf will build to 4-6 ft today through Monday with a few breakers up to around 7 ft possible along the western Florida panhandle beaches on Sunday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coast through early Monday evening. Those visiting area beaches should be prepared to encounter dangerous surf and rip currents. Please follow lifeguard instructions and pay close attention to beach warning flags. /21

SHORT - LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper level ridge stretching north along the East Coast deamplifies in the coming week as a series of shortwave troughs move through. This de-amplification of the ridge shifts a surface ridge south over the East Coast to over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean, keeping the northern Gulf coast under moist southerly flow off the Gulf. A tongue of greater Gulf moisture over the Lower Mississippi River Valley shifts east, with precipitable h20 values rising into the 1.4"-1.6" at times over most of the forecast area Monday into Monday night. Best combination of moisture and decreased subsidence remains west of the forecast area Monday into Monday night, and with that, best chance of rain is expected to be west of the Alabama River. Rain chances shift east for late Monday night into Tuesday as the tongue of moisture shifts east. For the first passing shortwave Sunday night into Monday night, guidance indicates enough instability to add rumbles into the forecast, with SBCapes rising into the 750-1000J/kg. Wind shear remains limited with the shifting of the surface ridge helping to keep wind shear low, so am expecting the chance of organized strong to severe storms to be low. With the second, a weaker shortwave trough passes late Monday night into Tuesday night. The band of increased moisture shifts more over the Southeast, spreading scattered showers and thunderstorms more eastward over the forecast area. Instability remains modest (SBCapes of 1000-1500J/kg) with wind shear remaining minimal, so am expecting the chance of any strong to marginally severe storms to remain low. Through the rest of the forecast, an upper ridge builds a bit over the Southeast, with the surface high off the East Coast shifting north and the best moisture influx shifts west of the forecast area, rain chances drop for the rest of the week.

Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with subsidence from the eastern upper ridge remaining strong enough over the Southeast. High temperatures in the mid to at times upper 80s are expected over inland areas, around 80 along the coast. Low temperatures are expected to range from around 60 over central Alabama to mid to upper 60s over portions of inland southeast Mississippi and along the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the marine area through late Sunday night as southeasterly winds range between 15-25 kt with gusts up to around 30 kt. Seas also build to 5-8 ft over the Gulf marine zones this weekend. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 82 66 81 66 82 66 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 30 0 Pensacola 78 69 77 68 79 67 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 0 Destin 78 69 78 68 78 67 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 Evergreen 84 62 83 59 85 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 0 Waynesboro 84 62 83 63 84 63 84 64 / 0 0 10 0 40 50 40 10 Camden 83 62 82 60 84 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 30 0 Crestview 83 63 84 59 84 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650- 655-670-675.

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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:51 AM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:47 PM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:23 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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