Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 3:47 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 946 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east late. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Patchy fog. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 946 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface high pressure continues to build into the marine area from the east. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 032334 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions will return this evening across the area as winds relax in the wake of showers and storms. After midnight, some patchy fog and IFR ceilings should develop mainly across the Florida Panhandle and interior portions of southern Alabama. Some reductions to IFR or LIFR visbys and ceilings will be possible.
Ceiling and visbys return to VFR tomorrow morning as winds turn light out of the south once again. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have begun to initiate across portions of the southeast this afternoon, as a weak shortwave moves through the region. Despite a lack of strong forcing, this activity has been aided in diurnal temperatures, and are expected to remain fairly unorganized. Given an abundance of moisture across the area (PWs around 1.5 inch), locally heavy rainfall will be possible, along with brief wind gusts. This activity should begin to diminish towards the late afternoon and early evening hours as the shortwave moves to the east and we lose our daytime heating.

The upper flow pattern will remain fairly unchanged through the overnight hours and into Saturday, as a series of shortwaves move through the region. Without any large scale ascent, dry conditions will prevail overnight, with mid and high clouds persisting across the area. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s just before daybreak on Saturday. Patchy fog is possible once again tonight, and may be dense in some locations. However, given the cloud cover, the coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this point. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected once again on Saturday, though the coverage will be scattered at best. The better chance for thunderstorms will be over the northern half of the area, where the influence of the shortwaves may be a tad higher. Otherwise, expect highs to warm into the upper 80s across much of the area.
/73

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Weak ridging will begin to build into the area Saturday night, with another shortwave moving through during the day Sunday. This will bring another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with lesser coverage over our southern zones. Locally heavy rainfall and brief winds gusts will be possible with any storm that develops and this activity will likely diminish Sunday evening with the loss of daytime heating. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon, falling into the lower to mid 60s Sunday night.

By Monday, a strong ridge begins to build into the region, amplifying on Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves into the Planes. Dry conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, with the main focus on the potential heat next week. Under the influence of the ridge, and after several days of persistent southerly flow, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s (~10 degrees above seasonal norms). Heat indices will be in the upper 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, which may lead to heat stress concerns. Overall, though, RH will likely remain low enough to prevent widespread heat concerns. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s each night. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface high pressure continues to ridge into the marine area from the east. Bay waters will have a light to moderate chop through the period. Seas offshore generally remain 2 feet or less over the next few days, but increase to around 2 to 3 feet late in the weekend and into the early part of next week due to the slight increase in winds. Winds will be a little higher and occasionally gusty each afternoon near the coast in association with the daily sea breeze circulation. A few showers or storms are possible over the bays and inland waterways this weekend. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 86 67 86 68 85 69 86 / 10 20 0 10 10 20 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 69 83 70 83 72 84 / 20 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 82 69 82 70 83 72 82 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 65 89 63 89 64 88 65 89 / 20 30 10 20 10 20 0 10 Waynesboro 64 89 64 88 64 88 66 89 / 10 30 10 30 10 20 0 10 Camden 65 87 64 88 65 86 66 88 / 30 30 10 30 20 20 0 10 Crestview 64 89 63 89 64 88 65 88 / 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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