Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Perdido Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:29PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:47 AM CDT (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 1:57AMMoonset 4:03PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 1028 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Winds light becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Winds light becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1028 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure from the western atlantic across the north central gulf will remain in place through the end of the week. This will maintain a generally light to occasionally moderate west to southwest wind flow. A weak front will approach late in the weekend resulting in a higher coverage of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and seas will be locally higher near Thunderstorm activity.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perdido Beach, AL
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location: 30.39, -87.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 170458 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1158 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... PrevailingVFR conditions forecast along the
northern gulf coast region over the next 24 hours. Added vicinity
thunderstorms starting at 17.18z to all TAF sites for developing
afternoon convection, and a prob30 group from 17.20z to 18.02z.

Light and variable to calm winds overnight will become west at 5
to 7 knots at kmob and kpns, turning to the southwest in the
afternoon. Winds at kbfm will turn to the south-southeast due to a
developing bay breeze. 22

Prev discussion issued 346 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
near term now through Thursday ... Convection will come to an
end this evening as the boundary layer cools due to the loss of
daytime heating. Muggy overnight conditions continue with lows in
the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Upper
ridging builds over the area on Thursday resulting in less coverage
of showers and thunderstorms. However, with precipitable water
values still around 2 inches, isolated to scattered showers and
storms can be expected with the greatest coverage across
northeastern areas where better deep layer moisture will reside. The
lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms will result in high
temps in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. 13
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... Upper ridging
centered over the north central gulf coast Thursday evening will
begin to get shunted westward with the approach of an inverted
trough axis from the east. Any shower and storm activity we see
on Thursday should quickly wane with the loss of heating in a
generally subsident environment associated with the ridge.

Moisture levels will be on the increase Friday as the influence of
the approaching trough sends precipitable water values back to
near or above the 2 inch mark by Friday evening. With deeper
moisture in place and more favorable large scale lift, we will see
an increase in shower and storm coverage for Friday. Forecast
soundings show around 2000 j kg of MLCAPE and some modestly dry
air in the mid levels of the atmosphere across the area Friday
afternoon. Will have to watch any storms that form in this
environment as they will be capable of gusty downburst-type winds,
heavy rain and frequent lightning. Certainly not expecting
widespread severe weather but the strongest thunderstorm cores
could produce winds approaching 50mph given the dry air noted in
the mid levels.

The upper trough axis sets up across the area on Saturday resulting
in more widespread cloudiness, showers and storms. Will carry likely
pops across the southern half of the area with chance pops across
the northern tier. Area forecast soundings continue to show
around 2000 j kg of MLCAPE for Saturday and any of the stronger
storms will be capable of the usual summer time threats of heavy
rain, frequent lightning and localized gusty winds where the
stronger thunderstorm cores collapse.

Temperatures will not vary much over the short term with low to
mid 90s expected inland and upper 80s at the coast. Heat index
values will be in the 103-107 range on Friday and tad cooler on
Saturday. Lows will remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80
along the immediate coast. 05 rr
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Deep layer moisture and
modest support for upward motion associated with the trough axis
will persist on Sunday. Precipitable water values will continue
near or above the 2 inch mark. General shower and storm coverage
will be similar to Saturday with areas of likely pops over
southeast ms with chance pops elsewhere.

Medium range models begin to diverge with respect to timing and
placement of the upper level features into early next week. The
ecmwf keeps the weakening trough in place across the north central
gulf coast. The operational GFS tries to build upper ridging
across the area but a quick glance at the GFS ensemble height
anomalies looks more like the ECMWF solution. Will side with the
more consistent euro solution and keep chance pops across the area
Monday and Tuesday and decrease to slight chance for Wednesday as
ridging builds back in.

Temperatures will remain at seasonal levels through the extended
forecast period... Generally low 90s during the day and mid to
upper 70s for lows.

Eclipse: Monday afternoon is still pretty far out in the long range
for a truly skillful cloud cover forecast but a cursory glance at
model relative humidity through the column shows the potential
for a few low level cloud layers around during eclipse time. Cloud
cover climatology across the southeast us at roughly mid-day in
august is not typically favorable for clear skies but stay tuned!
05 rr
marine... A ridge of high pressure from the western atlantic across
the north central gulf will remain in place through the end of the
week. This will maintain a generally light to occasionally moderate
west to southwest wind flow. A weak front will approach late in the
weekend resulting in a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Winds and seas will be locally higher near thunderstorm activity.

13

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 10 mi78 min W 1.9 84°F 1018 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 12 mi48 min 84°F 89°F1017.9 hPa (-0.8)
WBYA1 21 mi48 min 84°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 21 mi63 min 78°F 77°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 23 mi58 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 85°F 87°F1 ft1017.8 hPa (-0.5)77°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 31 mi18 min 83°F 1015.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 33 mi48 min NNE 1.9 80°F 1017.3 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 33 mi48 min SSW 6 G 6 85°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 36 mi48 min S 7 G 8.9 85°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.7)
PTOA1 37 mi48 min 80°F 75°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 38 mi48 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 86°F1018.4 hPa (-0.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 38 mi78 min SSW 4.1 86°F 1018.3 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 39 mi48 min 81°F 85°F1017.7 hPa (-0.8)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 42 mi78 min SSW 4.1 86°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi52 minN 0 miFair79°F75°F88%1017.8 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi55 minSSW 310.00 miFair82°F75°F82%1017.9 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL15 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair76°F76°F100%1017.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi53 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F77°F100%1017.9 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS5SW6SW9SW10NE13N3S5S6W4SW53SW3W3SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW86
G20
N63SW9SW8SW9W4SW5W3CalmCalmSW3Calm
2 days agoW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW444SW4S9SW14SW12SW14
G20
5Calm5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91110.90.80.70.60.50.40.20.10.10-0-0

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:04 PM CDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.911.21.31.31.41.41.31.210.90.70.50.30.20.1-0-0-00.10.20.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.