Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Perdido Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:46PM Monday May 29, 2017 2:40 AM CDT (07:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 1038 Pm Cdt Sun May 28 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Choppy becoming a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Winds light becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1038 Pm Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis..South to southwest wind flow...moderate at times...will continue through Monday as high pressure slowly shifts east. Southerly winds will diminish slightly Tuesday through midweek as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast. Winds and waves will be higher near scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms through midweek. A light to moderate southerly wind flow can be expected later in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perdido Beach, AL
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location: 30.39, -87.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 290437 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1137 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... A large area of deep convection has migrated
eastward into southwest ms and there are indications that storms
will hold together as they track east and southeast during the
pre-dawn hours. Cig bases at ifr to MVFR categories. Tsra will be
of most impact to approaches departures, bringing brief strong
wind gusts and vsby reducing downpours. 10

Prev discussion issued 922 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... A complex mesoscale setup with evening analysis showing
a weak outflow boundary having settled southward to the coast
thru the day and is now stalled near the central gulf coast. To
the west, a very impressive eruption of cold cloud tops and storms
has been evolving from louisiana to central and southern texas in
the vicinity of a surface frontal zone where 29.00z precipitable
water values range from 1.4 to 1.8 inches. Given latest satellite
trends, clouds will continue to thicken overnight from west to
east and will maintain the eastward shift in rain chances thru
the pre-dawn hours to daybreak as shown in latest gridded
forecasts. This is also consistent with the latest high resolution
hrrr model radar reflectivity output. This also out of respect
for the passage of mid-level impulses in the southwest flow aloft, which
will bring a contribution to deep layer ascent. 10
prev discussion... Issued 628 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Generally a few CU around 5 kt with broken, thin
high based cirrus carrying over into the evening. Vsby ok. Winds
are forecast to become light and variable. Potential for late
night low stratus developing with bases ranging from ifr to MVFR
categories. Indications are that some storms could be in the vcty
of the coastal terminals by daybreak Monday due to a weak
boundary near-by. 10
prev discussion... Issued 417 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017
near term now through Sunday night ... The outflow boundary
produced by last night's MCS has made it all the way to the i-10
corridor in al NW fl. The boundary has been slowing down over the
past few hours as the remnant cold pool weakens. While scattered
showers and storms have developed at times along and ahead of the
boundary, the lack of upper forcing and a warm layer near 850mb
has kept most storms from getting strong even with mlcapes of
2500-3000 j kg. The outflow boundary will wash out along the coast
or just offshore by late this afternoon early evening. Not much
in the way of precip expected through the evening as there will be
some CIN to overcome in the wake of the outflow. However, cannot
rule out an isolated storm along the coast due to the outflow and
over far inland SW al SE ms as isolated storms approach from the
west. The big question is when where does the next best chance of
storms develop. Guidance has struggled through the day with the
mesoscale pattern so confidence is lower than normal. At this
point, it appears a subtle shortwave will approach from the west
early in the morning and serve to initiate scattered convection
along the coast or just offshore around daybreak (potentially
aided by the remnant outflow boundary). Any convection that
develops will move to the northeast with coverage increasing over
inland areas by late morning into the afternoon. Convective
coverage should also be enhanced by a surge of deep layer moisture
with precipitable waters increasing to 1.75-2 inches during the
day. The severe weather risk appears low at this time with 0-6km
shear only 25-30 kt. However, a few strong storms with gusty
winds small hail are possible. In addition, torrential downpours
and localized nuisance flooding is possible with the increasing
precipitable waters. Lows tonight will be muggy in the lower to
mid 70s. Highs tomorrow tempered some by the increased convection
and will generally be in the low to mid 80s. 34 jfb
short term Monday through Tuesday night ... Broad upper trof
moving east of the central plains states late Mon will shift east of
the north central gulf gulf states and forecast area by early wed
morning. Ahead of the upper system a weak frontal boundary near
the surface is still expected to move south and stall near the
ms al nwfl coast by early Tue morning. This frontal boundary will
be the main focus for heavier showers and thunderstorms through
the short term period due to better moisture convergence near and
along the front. Aloft several mid level impulses are noted in the
model guidance generally tracking from east texas to central and
lower parts of ms and al through early Wed morning. For Mon night
expect scattered pops across most locations in the forecast area
followed by likely to scattered pops across the forecast area
during the day on tue, with the best chance of rain generally
along and west of the i-65 corridor. With continued forcing in the
mid levels combined with moderate instability near the surface a
few strong thunderstorms will be possible Mon night through early
wed. Gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning
and periods of very heavy rain will be the main threats with the
stronger thunderstorms. With training cells over the same location
especially near the front some localized nuisance flooding will
be possible especially over the western half of the forecast area.

Nighttime lows will continue to be slightly above seasonal averages
through Wed morning with highs running a tad below seasonal averages
each day due to clouds and rain. Lows Mon night will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s inland and the lower to middle 70s near the
coast. Highs tues will range from the lower to middle 80s for
most areas except the middle to upper 80s over inland areas well
to the east. Lows Tue night will range from the middle to upper
60s inland and the lower 70s near the coast. Highs Wed will range
from the middle to upper 80s inland and the middle 80s near the
coast.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ... By Wed a weak upper ridge
will be approaching the central gulf coast region from the west with
ridge axis moving east of the forecast by early Fri morning. Expect
drier conditions late Wed through early Fri followed by scattered
pops during the day Fri and sat. The better rain chances late in the
week are in response to next upper trof approaching from the west
late in the week. Daytime highs look to be near seasonal averages
with night time lows running a few degrees above average. 32 ee
marine... A light to moderate south to southwest wind flow will
continue through Mon as high pressure slowly shifts east. Southerly
winds will diminish slightly Tue through midweek as a weak frontal
boundary stalls near the coast. Winds and waves will be higher near
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through midweek. A
light to moderate southerly wind flow can be expected later in the
week. Seas will range from 2 to 3 feet through early in the week
then 2 feet or less from mid to late week. Less coverage of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected late Wed through thu
night. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 10 mi40 min Calm 79°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 12 mi40 min 78°F 80°F1016.4 hPa (-0.0)
WBYA1 21 mi40 min 80°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 22 mi70 min WNW 6 80°F 1015.6 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 23 mi50 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 79°F3 ft1015.9 hPa (+1.6)77°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 31 mi70 min N 4.1 79°F 1015.9 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 33 mi40 min W 7 G 9.9 80°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 33 mi40 min NNE 1.9 76°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 36 mi40 min WSW 5.1 G 6 79°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.8)
PTOA1 37 mi40 min 77°F 74°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 38 mi70 min NW 6 80°F 1015.9 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 38 mi40 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 79°F1016.5 hPa (+0.0)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 39 mi40 min 77°F 78°F1015.9 hPa (+0.0)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 42 mi70 min W 8 80°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi44 minN 0 miOvercast76°F73°F91%1016.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi47 minN 09.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1016.1 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL15 mi45 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F77°F100%1015.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi45 minN 07.00 miOvercast77°F77°F100%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8SW7W3CalmSW5SW7SW8SW9SW11SW11SW13SW10
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1 day agoSW8SW10SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW7S12S10S11S13S11SW14SW12SW10SW7SW7SW7SW7SW11SW10SW9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S10S10S11S10S11S9S9S8S8S9SW6SW3S5S8S9S10S9S11

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
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Mon -- 03:54 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:12 PM CDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.30.40.50.70.80.90.910.90.90.80.70.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:20 PM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.70.911.21.31.31.31.31.210.80.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.