Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferry Pass, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:39PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:44 PM CST (03:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:35PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 357 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy dense fog in the evening. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 357 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue through this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to strong northerly flow will develop in the wake of the front late tonight through Monday then gradually shift east by early Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow is expected on Tuesday followed by a light to moderate southerly flow Wednesday into Thursday in response to another cold front slowing approaching from the west. Areas of fog mostly over the near shore waters of alabama will redevelop this evening then clear with the windshift overnight. Patchy dense fog will also be possible further east occurring mostly over the near waters of northwest florida through early Monday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferry Pass, FL
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location: 30.52, -87.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 172341 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
541 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... Cold front was draped over from northern al to off
the southwest coast of la to open up the TAF period. Ahead of the
boundary, MVFR to ifr cig bases forecast this evening with vsby
also expected to trend lower to ifr, to perhaps lifr categories
in fog. Scattered light shra possible. Front makes passage late in
the night, bringing wind shift and gusty conditions with cig
bases lifting to MVFR categories. 10

Prev discussion issued 401 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
near term now through Monday ... A broad upper trof located over
much of the western CONUS stretching northeast over parts of the
northern plains and lower canada will shift slightly east through
the next 24 hours as a continued series of potent mid level
impulses continue to dive south and round the base of the main
upper system. Well to the east a large blocking ridge of high
pressure stretching from the central atlantic to the southwest
gulf and western caribbean will move little through Mon helping to
maintain unseasonal moisture content for many locations further
west or generally across much of the eastern u.S. Near the surface
a shallow cold front currently located from the tx la border
stretching northeast across central parts of la and ms and
northern al will continue to shift southeast moving across western
and northern sections of the forecast area by 06z or midnight
tonight then further south moving off the al and nwfl coast by 12z
or 6 am Sun morning. Ahead and along the front expect scattered
to numerous showers to move south and east across the forecast
area tonight and early Mon followed by more low clouds and
scattered areas of light rain in the wake of the front moving
across the forecast area through midday mon. Also, for this
evening expect more low clouds mixed with dense fog occurring
mainly along the immediate coast mixing out with the wind shift
along the front late tonight and early Mon morning. Dense fog,
mostly patchy, could also spread further inland after sunset this
evening possibly reaching areas along and south of the i-10
corridor mainly through about midnight, possibly lingering over
most areas of the western fl panhandle and coastal sections of al
through about 3 am Mon morning. A this time with the lack of
significant forcing aloft combined with limited instability in the
lower levels of the boundary layer no thunderstorm development is
expected through tonight. Although some heavy rainfall may occur
later this evening and overnight especially over western and
northern sections of the forecast area ahead and along the front
no significant or widespread flooding is expected.

Temperatures will continue to be mild through most of tonight
running about 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms then about 2 to 4
degrees below seasonal norms during the day on mon. Lows tonight
will range from the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s generally along
and north of highway 84 and the middle 50s to lower 60s further
south stretching to the immediate coast. Highs Mon will range from
the lower 60s generally north of highway 84 and the middle 60s
further south and east stretching to the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Monday night through Wednesday night ... Within a
5-wave scale pattern over the western states baja area, an upper
trof moves across the central states then shears out across the
great lakes region during the period while a large, stubborn
upper ridge remains centered over the bahamas. A massive surface
high over much of the eastern half of the CONUS gradually retreats
into the easternmost states through Tuesday night but leaves
strong ridging in place over the extreme southeast states while a
surface low associated with the upper trof moves from the texas
coast northeastward roughly along the mississippi river valley.

The surface low brings an old frontal boundary over the northern
gulf northward as a warm front through the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning, with the passage occurring
first over the western portion but will be delayed over the
eastern portion until Wednesday morning due to the surface ridge
over the extreme southeast states. The surface low ends up near
the eastern great lakes region Wednesday night, meanwhile bringing
a trailing cold front slowly into the western portion of the
forecast area as the surface ridging gradually weakens over the
extreme southeast states. Deep layer moisture increases
dramatically during the period, with precipitable water values
initially ranging from 0.5 to 1.25 inches over the area Monday
evening increasing to around 1.5 inches Tuesday morning then to
1.5-1.9 inches on Wednesday. To put this in perspective, this
means values increase from 90 to 150% of normal to around 250% of
normal during the period.

One important characteristic of this pattern for the forecast area
is the stubborn upper ridge centered over the bahamas will tend to
deflect passing shortwaves in the southwest flow over the region
along with fringe subsidence effects. So, during the period pops
will be higher generally along west of i-65 compared to further to
the east while the warm front progresses through the area
followed by the trailing cold front moving into the area Wednesday
night. Isentropic lift in the 295-305k layer will support slight
chance to chance pops Monday night. Good chance to likely pops
generally follow for Tuesday into Tuesday night west of i-65 as
the warm front progresses through this portion within an
environment of increasing deep layer moisture along with some
support from passing shortwaves, while further to the east expect
chance pops. By Wednesday, pops increase to likely categorical
along west of i-65 as another series of shortwaves affect the area
while chance pops continue further to the east, then similar pops
follow for Wednesday night as the trailing cold front begins to
moves into the area.

Rainfall amounts from Monday night through Wednesday night range
from about 0.75 to 1.75 inches along west of i-65 with amounts of
0.25 to 0.75 east of i-65. These amounts might lead to some
nuisance type flooding over interior southeast mississippi and
interior southwest alabama and will need to monitor. Lows Monday
night range from the mid 40s well inland to the lower 50s near the
coast then near seasonable daytime highs follow for Tuesday,
ranging from lower 60s well inland to mid 60s over the southern
half. Tuesday night will be warm and range from 55-60 well inland
to mid 60s closer to the coast, then Wednesday night will be in
the mid 60s for essentially the entire area. Highs on Wednesday
will be well above seasonable levels with mid 70s prevailing. A
high risk of rip currents is expected through much of the period.

29
long term Thursday through Sunday ... The stubborn upper ridge
remains centered over the bahamas through Friday while an upper
trof slowly advances from the western states. The frontal boundary
which had advanced into the western portion of the area Wednesday
night remains near this position on Thursday then moves slowly
into central alabama mississippi on Friday. The upper ridge
finally breaks down during the remainder of the period as the
upper trof advances across the central states then weakens to a
shortwave trof while moving across the eastern states. The frontal
boundary moves well north of the area on Saturday as a surface
low develops over texas, then the surface low moves quickly off to
the northeast states and brings another cold front through the
forecast area. Will have likely pops for much of the area Thursday
then rain chances decrease to slight chance to chance pops by Saturday
as the frontal boundary moves north of the area leaving a light
southerly flow pattern over the area. Chance pops are expected on
Sunday as the front moves through, but higher pops could
eventually be supported once confidence increases with the timing
of the frontal passage. 29
marine... A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue
through this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A
moderate to strong northerly flow will develop in the wake of the
front late tonight through Monday then gradually shift east by early
Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow is expected on Tuesday
followed by a light to moderate southerly flow Wednesday into
Thursday in response to another cold front slowing approaching from
the west. Areas of fog mostly over the near shore waters of alabama
will redevelop this evening then clear with the windshift overnight.

Patchy dense fog will also be possible further east occurring mostly
over the near waters of northwest florida through early Monday
morning. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 6 am cst Tuesday for
gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

Dense fog advisory until midnight cst tonight for gmz630>632.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi51 min S 9.9 G 12 69°F 63°F1012.6 hPa
WBYA1 35 mi51 min 70°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi120 min 71°F 1012 hPa69°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 37 mi45 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.5)66°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 37 mi105 min S 5.1 1011.5 hPa (+1.0)
PTOA1 47 mi51 min 66°F 66°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi51 min S 5.1 G 7 67°F 62°F1012.3 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 48 mi51 min 66°F 58°F1012.1 hPa
MBPA1 49 mi51 min 66°F 66°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL4 mi52 minS 66.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F93%1012.7 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL14 mi49 minS 66.00 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1012.6 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL15 mi1.8 hrsSSW 86.00 miFog/Mist70°F70°F100%1010.7 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL16 mi49 minS 65.00 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S6S4S6S5SE6SE7SE9S8S9S8S9S11S12SE13S8SE8S10S9S7S7S4S6S6
1 day agoSW6SW6SW7W7W6SW6SW5W6W6W9SW9W10W7W64S9
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2 days agoSW6S6SW3CalmNW3CalmCalmE3SE3SE4S3SW8S10SW10SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:47 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:27 AM CST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:35 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:43 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.60.81.11.31.51.61.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:47 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:51 AM CST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:30 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.80.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.40.70.91.21.41.51.61.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.