Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bagdad, FL
May 10, 2024 12:22 AM CDT (05:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 7:44 AM Moonset 10:45 PM |
GMZ634 Expires:202405101530;;942433 Fzus54 Kmob 100253 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 953 pm cdt Thu may 9 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633-634-101530- perdido bay-pensacola bay system- 953 pm cdt Thu may 9 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
Saturday - North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - South winds around 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 953 pm cdt Thu may 9 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633-634-101530- perdido bay-pensacola bay system- 953 pm cdt Thu may 9 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 953 Pm Cdt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis - A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist through late tonight, becoming more westerly early on Friday. Winds become northerly and decrease somewhat by Friday night, with a light to moderate offshore flow then prevailing through most of the weekend. A light to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area during the early part of next week.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 100500 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1159 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
(Mesoscale and Near Term)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #226 has been issued and is valid until 5 AM CDT for much of interior southeast MS as well as interior southwest and south central AL. An outflow boundary from previous convection to the north of our forecast area has settled down around the Highway 84 corridor, and a complex of thunderstorms over western and central MS will move east across interior portions of our forecast area (along this aforementioned boundary). This complex will bring an enhanced threat of damaging winds with wind gusts up to 80 mph possible. Large hail will also be a threat. The most likely time for this activity to move east across our interior zones will be from about midnight tonight through 4 or 5 AM CDT Friday morning. Forecast products have been updated, adding the Watch #226.
The Hi-Res, Convective Allowing Models have been coming into better agreement this evening in indicating that another the area of developing thunderstorms, currently over eastern TX and central LA, will then move east across our area very late tonight into early Friday morning. Indications are that this cluster of storms will be further south than the overnight activity, but has the same potential to be severe with very strong straightline winds again possible. It is quite likely that another Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be required further south across our area (likely down to the coast) much later tonight into early Friday morning.
Currently working on the remainder of the overnight forecast package. Still looks somewhat cooler with a much drier airmass in place across the region Friday night through Saturday night. The next round of showers and storms then looks to come during the early part of next week. Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave energy moving over the Southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday before a positively tilted upper low passes north of the forecast area. The cold front which moved through over the weekend will have stalled over the Gulf of Mexico, and will begin to move north as a warm front into the southeast CONUS Monday into Tuesday, bringing the next chance for showers and storms to the area.
Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave energy moving over the southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday before a positively tilted upper low passes north of the forecast area. The cold front which stalled over the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend moves north as a warm front into the Southeast Monday into Tuesday. This will bring another round of precipitation to the forecast area. There is a chance of strong to severe storms Monday into early Tuesday. Guidance is advertising SBCapes rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range. Add in good wind shear (Bulk wind shear topping out between 50 and 60 kts Monday night into Tuesday). So an increased risk of severe weather could once again return to the area, but there is some disagreement in the models, so we will need to continue to monitor. From Tuesday night on, guidance has been inconsistent with the strength of the cold front and moisture levels behind, resulting in variations with PoPs Wednesday and after. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 718 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Convective evolution as we go through the rest of the evening into the overnight hours remains very complex with a higher degree of uncertainty than normal.
Severe thunderstorms have quickly developed across central Alabama and west central Mississippi early this evening in advance of a shortwave currently moving across MS. Very subtle height falls have occurred ahead of this wave up in that region, which has been enough to overcome a small cap around 750mb (as observed on the 00z JAN sounding). Storms have also focused up in that region along a subtle west to east oriented boundary. Meanwhile, further south in our area, the influence of this wave has not been enough to overcome this aforementioned cap up until this point. A few storms are trying to develop in south central AL from Crenshaw County eastward along a residual outflow boundary, but so far the capping has won out. As we go through the night, subtle height falls will spreads into the area from the west ahead of a stronger shortwaves that has resulted in the deep convection across east TX.
While the specific evolution of the convection is uncertain, we expect a gradual increase in convective coverage across the far northern portions of the forecast area by late evening, potentially influenced by a southward moving outflow boundary generated by cold pools from the central AL convection. Also, convective coverage will likely quickly increase back to our west across LA/MS late tonight with the influence of the aforementioned shortwave. This convection will spread east into the area overnight (mainly after midnight) and will impact at least the northern half to two-thirds of the forecast area. How far south this convection makes it is still uncertain.
The airmass ahead of this convection could not be any more favorable for severe weather. SBCAPES range from 3000 to 5000 j/kg as of 00z, with the highest values in the western half of the area.
Similar values will persist through the night. In addition, model guidance has been emphatic on spreading in an elevated mixed layer with mid level lapse rates near or in the excess of 8 C/km. This was confirmed in the JAN sounding which showed 8.5 C/km. In addition, deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kt will be very supportive of severe weather. Much of this shear is in the mid to upper levels with weaker flow in the low levels. This favors very strong cold pools that will drive a damaging wind threat and perhaps a significant wind event numerous gusts over 70mph possible. The damaging wind threat will increase with time as clusters of storms organize and it is possible we will have to contend with a west to east moving MCS across the area overnight.
If an MCS does organize, there could be some swaths of significant wind damage along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. Prior to the potential organization of a storm complex, individual supercells that develop will carry a substantial large hail threat as straight line hodographs favor splitting supercells, with the left movers being the more likely sig hail producers.
The greatest severe threat will likely shift east of the area by 5- 6am. How all the convection evolves overnight will determine what the extent of the threat will be closer to the coast in the predawn to morning hours on Friday. There will certainly be a severe threat in this area, but how much will hinge on how far south the initial convection makes it and if there is a lingering boundary to focus convection along the I-10 corridor through Friday morning.
34/JFB
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 701 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
General VFR conditions with local mid MVFR ceilings and isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected early this evening. We still expect that conditions will likely deteriorate later tonight into early Friday morning as several rounds of convection move east across the area. A cold front will sag south across the area through Friday morning, bringing low end MVFR/IFR conditions and more widespread showers and storms. Some of the storms could be intense, with strong damaging winds and large hail. South to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots through late tonight, but with locally variable strong winds near the convection. Winds shift to more westerly late tonight and then northwesterly Friday morning as the front passes and convection ends. VFR conditions expected by afternoon. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 353 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
A moderate onshore flow will persist through early Friday.
Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 71 86 62 84 63 82 65 78 / 70 70 0 0 0 10 40 70 Pensacola 73 85 64 83 66 82 68 78 / 70 80 0 0 0 10 40 70 Destin 74 83 66 83 67 81 69 78 / 40 80 0 0 0 0 30 60 Evergreen 68 85 57 81 59 83 60 77 / 80 80 0 0 0 10 40 70 Waynesboro 66 85 57 81 60 80 61 75 / 80 40 0 0 0 10 50 70 Camden 65 83 55 79 57 80 60 75 / 80 50 0 0 0 0 40 70 Crestview 69 85 58 84 58 83 61 79 / 70 90 0 0 0 10 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1159 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
(Mesoscale and Near Term)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #226 has been issued and is valid until 5 AM CDT for much of interior southeast MS as well as interior southwest and south central AL. An outflow boundary from previous convection to the north of our forecast area has settled down around the Highway 84 corridor, and a complex of thunderstorms over western and central MS will move east across interior portions of our forecast area (along this aforementioned boundary). This complex will bring an enhanced threat of damaging winds with wind gusts up to 80 mph possible. Large hail will also be a threat. The most likely time for this activity to move east across our interior zones will be from about midnight tonight through 4 or 5 AM CDT Friday morning. Forecast products have been updated, adding the Watch #226.
The Hi-Res, Convective Allowing Models have been coming into better agreement this evening in indicating that another the area of developing thunderstorms, currently over eastern TX and central LA, will then move east across our area very late tonight into early Friday morning. Indications are that this cluster of storms will be further south than the overnight activity, but has the same potential to be severe with very strong straightline winds again possible. It is quite likely that another Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be required further south across our area (likely down to the coast) much later tonight into early Friday morning.
Currently working on the remainder of the overnight forecast package. Still looks somewhat cooler with a much drier airmass in place across the region Friday night through Saturday night. The next round of showers and storms then looks to come during the early part of next week. Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave energy moving over the Southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday before a positively tilted upper low passes north of the forecast area. The cold front which moved through over the weekend will have stalled over the Gulf of Mexico, and will begin to move north as a warm front into the southeast CONUS Monday into Tuesday, bringing the next chance for showers and storms to the area.
Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave energy moving over the southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday before a positively tilted upper low passes north of the forecast area. The cold front which stalled over the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend moves north as a warm front into the Southeast Monday into Tuesday. This will bring another round of precipitation to the forecast area. There is a chance of strong to severe storms Monday into early Tuesday. Guidance is advertising SBCapes rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range. Add in good wind shear (Bulk wind shear topping out between 50 and 60 kts Monday night into Tuesday). So an increased risk of severe weather could once again return to the area, but there is some disagreement in the models, so we will need to continue to monitor. From Tuesday night on, guidance has been inconsistent with the strength of the cold front and moisture levels behind, resulting in variations with PoPs Wednesday and after. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 718 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Convective evolution as we go through the rest of the evening into the overnight hours remains very complex with a higher degree of uncertainty than normal.
Severe thunderstorms have quickly developed across central Alabama and west central Mississippi early this evening in advance of a shortwave currently moving across MS. Very subtle height falls have occurred ahead of this wave up in that region, which has been enough to overcome a small cap around 750mb (as observed on the 00z JAN sounding). Storms have also focused up in that region along a subtle west to east oriented boundary. Meanwhile, further south in our area, the influence of this wave has not been enough to overcome this aforementioned cap up until this point. A few storms are trying to develop in south central AL from Crenshaw County eastward along a residual outflow boundary, but so far the capping has won out. As we go through the night, subtle height falls will spreads into the area from the west ahead of a stronger shortwaves that has resulted in the deep convection across east TX.
While the specific evolution of the convection is uncertain, we expect a gradual increase in convective coverage across the far northern portions of the forecast area by late evening, potentially influenced by a southward moving outflow boundary generated by cold pools from the central AL convection. Also, convective coverage will likely quickly increase back to our west across LA/MS late tonight with the influence of the aforementioned shortwave. This convection will spread east into the area overnight (mainly after midnight) and will impact at least the northern half to two-thirds of the forecast area. How far south this convection makes it is still uncertain.
The airmass ahead of this convection could not be any more favorable for severe weather. SBCAPES range from 3000 to 5000 j/kg as of 00z, with the highest values in the western half of the area.
Similar values will persist through the night. In addition, model guidance has been emphatic on spreading in an elevated mixed layer with mid level lapse rates near or in the excess of 8 C/km. This was confirmed in the JAN sounding which showed 8.5 C/km. In addition, deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kt will be very supportive of severe weather. Much of this shear is in the mid to upper levels with weaker flow in the low levels. This favors very strong cold pools that will drive a damaging wind threat and perhaps a significant wind event numerous gusts over 70mph possible. The damaging wind threat will increase with time as clusters of storms organize and it is possible we will have to contend with a west to east moving MCS across the area overnight.
If an MCS does organize, there could be some swaths of significant wind damage along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. Prior to the potential organization of a storm complex, individual supercells that develop will carry a substantial large hail threat as straight line hodographs favor splitting supercells, with the left movers being the more likely sig hail producers.
The greatest severe threat will likely shift east of the area by 5- 6am. How all the convection evolves overnight will determine what the extent of the threat will be closer to the coast in the predawn to morning hours on Friday. There will certainly be a severe threat in this area, but how much will hinge on how far south the initial convection makes it and if there is a lingering boundary to focus convection along the I-10 corridor through Friday morning.
34/JFB
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 701 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
General VFR conditions with local mid MVFR ceilings and isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected early this evening. We still expect that conditions will likely deteriorate later tonight into early Friday morning as several rounds of convection move east across the area. A cold front will sag south across the area through Friday morning, bringing low end MVFR/IFR conditions and more widespread showers and storms. Some of the storms could be intense, with strong damaging winds and large hail. South to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots through late tonight, but with locally variable strong winds near the convection. Winds shift to more westerly late tonight and then northwesterly Friday morning as the front passes and convection ends. VFR conditions expected by afternoon. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 353 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
A moderate onshore flow will persist through early Friday.
Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 71 86 62 84 63 82 65 78 / 70 70 0 0 0 10 40 70 Pensacola 73 85 64 83 66 82 68 78 / 70 80 0 0 0 10 40 70 Destin 74 83 66 83 67 81 69 78 / 40 80 0 0 0 0 30 60 Evergreen 68 85 57 81 59 83 60 77 / 80 80 0 0 0 10 40 70 Waynesboro 66 85 57 81 60 80 61 75 / 80 40 0 0 0 10 50 70 Camden 65 83 55 79 57 80 60 75 / 80 50 0 0 0 0 40 70 Crestview 69 85 58 84 58 83 61 79 / 70 90 0 0 0 10 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 16 mi | 52 min | SSW 8.9G | 81°F | 29.83 | |||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 45 mi | 97 min | S 2.9 | 81°F | 29.83 | 80°F | ||
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 46 mi | 42 min | SSW 14G | 81°F | 82°F | 29.82 | 78°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNDZ WHITING FIELD NAS SOUTH,FL | 9 sm | 26 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 75°F | 84% | 29.83 | |
| KNSE WHITING FIELD NAS NORTH,FL | 10 sm | 26 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.83 | |
| KPNS PENSACOLA INTL,FL | 12 sm | 29 min | SSW 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 73°F | 79% | 29.82 | |
| KHRT HURLBURT FIELD,FL | 19 sm | 27 min | S 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 77°F | 89% | 29.82 | |
| KNPA PENSACOLA NAS/FORREST SHERMAN FIELD,FL | 23 sm | 2.3 hrs | S 14 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 75°F | 79% | 29.78 |
Tide / Current for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 01:17 PM CDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM CDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 01:17 PM CDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM CDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.6 |
| 1 am |
| -0.6 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.5 |
Lora Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM CDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:32 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:42 PM CDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM CDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:32 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:42 PM CDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.6 |
| 1 am |
| -0.5 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.6 |
Northwest Florida,
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