Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 4:15 PM   Moonset 4:14 AM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 246 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south near 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Tonight - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wednesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 246 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis -
a weak cold front will approach from the north today and tonight. The front will move into area waters by early Sunday. The front will begin to accelerate southward Sunday through Monday. Scattered Thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage late this weekend. A surge of north to northeast winds will follow behind the front by Sunday night and continue Monday, then weaken and turn onshore Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure then builds across area waters once again.
a period of small craft advisory conditions will be possible beginning as early as Sunday night.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of apr 13, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
69 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 103 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 200655 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 255 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA LATE TODAY...

NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Currently, temps are in the 60s to around 70 with light west winds. Dewpoints in the 60s and the light winds combined with subsidence producing some patchy radiation and advection fog over the inland northeast FL area. This fog will shift eastward over course of the next few hours.

Flow aloft is nearly zonal, but an upper level trough over the southwest CONUS will translate eastward, and attempt to phase with energy across the northern U.S. embedded in a long wave trough. Heights across the southeast U.S. are expected to decrease and models show weak embedded shortwaves moving into our area in mainly zonal flow this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. The cold front looks to be positioned across SC to central GA to south central AL this morning, and will move slowly southeastward through tonight into our area. The front may drop to around the FL/GA border by late tonight. The frontal boundary combined with lift from shortwave energy will support isolated to scattered convection. Some potential for a strong storm or two mainly over northern most zones, given adequate effective shear of up to 25-30 kt and MLCAPE reaching upwards of about 800-1400 J/kg late today and tonight. Main threats will be strong gusty winds and marginally severe hail. Timing may be more toward evening hours and possibly til about 1-2 AM tonight. SPC has highlighted a marginal risk of severe storms from Waycross northward through tonight.

Higher than normal max temps today with upper 80s to possibly lower 90s in a few spots and will be close to record levels. Notes in the climate section.

Tonight, isolated to scattered convection expected through the evening over the north zones, with activity shifting west to east. Expecting a downward trend in intensity and coverage after midnight. Some patchy fog possible overnight but looks fairly low chances at this time.
Lows tonight mainly in the 60s, warmest readings over the north portions due to clouds and some precip.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The cold front will sit near the FL/GA state border on Sunday, allowing for a decent range in high temperatures, inland SE GA will see highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with NE FL reaching the mid to upper 80s, potentially reaching 90 near the St. Johns river basin. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin in the morning for SE GA, spreading southward throughout the day, with the greatest coverage over SE GA in the afternoon and evening hours, shifting eastward overnight. Storms will slowly move south and eastward throughout the day on Monday as the front moves southward, with most of the area clear by sunset. Monday will be much cooler, with highs only reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Dry weather will be in place for the rest of the week behind the cold frontal passage as high pressure builds. A gradual warm-up in temperatures is expected throughout the week, by Wednesday SE GA and NE FL outside of the immediate coast will see high temperatures back in the 80s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail at this time, but some chances for fog and a low cig for VQQ and GNV in a few hours, with best chances at GNV.
Confidence in this is low to medium at this time, but satellite imagery and a few nearby observations beginning to show some potential over the few hours for GNV. After any fog and low cig dissipate by about 12z-14z, prevailing VFR conditions expected through the daytime hours. HOwever, there is some potential for isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly from JAX to SSI late today and this evening. Have shown VCTS or VCSH for now. Sfc winds will be light southwest to west early this morning, then increasing to near 5-10 kt by late morning. An Atlantic sea breeze begins to shift winds at SGJ and SSI by 17z-18z and CRG by about 21z-22z.

MARINE
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light west to southwest winds this morning will begin to turn southerly this aftn as the sea breeze develops. A slight ramp up in winds expected this evening before turning offshore again. Cold front will begin to enter the area waters Sunday and then shift well south of the area Monday. Small craft advisory conditions may begin as early as Sunday night as northerly winds increase. SCA looks probable for Monday til Tuesday, with winds dropping of during the day on Tuesday, though seas will remain elevated. Winds and seas continue to be diminish by Wednesday as high pressure ridge will dominate the area by then.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk is placed in for northeast FL with swells of about 2 ft with periods about 10 seconds. Lower end risk for southeast GA beaches for today. Somewhat lower risk appears in place for Sunday given mostly an offshore wind and smaller swell heights.

CLIMATE
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites today, 4/20, and will be close to record levels, mainly for JAX and CRG.

Record High Average 1st date Saturday 4/20 to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 92/1995 April 25 Craig Field, FL (CRG) 91/2002 April 22 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 94/1892 April 21 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 93/1968 May 2

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 66 78 53 / 40 30 70 50 SSI 86 67 81 56 / 20 30 60 60 JAX 90 65 86 57 / 20 20 50 70 SGJ 89 64 88 61 / 10 10 30 60 GNV 89 61 85 59 / 10 0 30 50 OCF 89 61 85 63 / 10 0 20 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Bailey Cut
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bailey Cut, 0.8 mile west of, Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:05 AM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:16 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:37 PM EDT     2.07 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

Full Color Weather Map

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