Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 11:21 PM   Moonset 8:15 AM

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FXUS64 KSJT 271010 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 510 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into tonight

A potent mid/upper trough currently over the southwest states, will lift northeast into the central/southern plains tonight and early Sunday. Ahead of this system, a weak disturbance is expected to generate thunderstorms along the dryline across west Texas around daybreak, and lift northeast across portions of west central, northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma through the morning hours. Some model discrepancies exist regarding the evolution of this activity, with the HRRR keeping most of the storms north of the forecast area, while the NAMNST has storms farther south into the Big Country and portions of the Concho Valley. A very unstable airmass exists across west/northwest Texas east of the dryline early this morning (SBCAPE's 3000 J/Kg)
and deep layer shear is strong (40-50 kts). This environment will support severe thunderstorms, with the primary risk being large hail, although an isolated tornado is also possible. Activity this morning is expected to lift east/northeast of the area by early afternoon.

As large-scale ascent increases with the approaching trough, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the dryline late this afternoon and early evening. A very unstable airmass (CAPE's 3000-3500 J/kg) and deep layer shear of 40 to 50kts will support supercells initially, with storms becoming more linear with time later this evening/overnight as a Pacific front advances east across the area. All severe hazards are possible, including large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes (some potentially strong). The greatest risk for tornadoes will extend from the eastern half of the Big Country, into north central Texas and Oklahoma, where a tornado outbreak is possible. Farther south across the remainder of West Central Texas, the primary hazards will be large to very large hail and damaging winds tonight, but embedded supercells within the squall line will have the potential to produce some tornadoes as well. In addition to the severe weather, heavy rainfall is possible, which may lead to some localized flooding, especially across eastern portions. Thunderstorms are expected to end over far southeast counties early Sunday morning, with skies clearing as the Pacific front moves east.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After the aforementioned activity moves out to the east, a break in the active weather pattern will ensue. Zonal flow will develop aloft following the departure of the low pressure. We will generally see a gradual warm up into the lower 90s through Tuesday. A series of minor disturbances aloft may yield enough support for a few thunderstorms for the middle part of next week. Otherwise, both the GFS and ECMWF depict the same forecast for the most part giving a fair amount of confidence in this forecast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings will develop from south to north overnight, with ceilings scattering out across the northern terminals by late morning, but lingering into early afternoon across the southern terminals. Some brief showers and thunderstorms are possible at from mid morning through noon, but coverage should be limited.
Thunderstorm will be possible at KABI by late afternoon and will include VCTS after 23Z. Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase at all TAF sites tomorrow evening into the overnight hours. Expect gusty south to southeast winds through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 83 56 82 57 / 60 80 0 0 San Angelo 89 56 85 55 / 20 70 0 0 Junction 86 60 87 59 / 20 90 10 0 Brownwood 80 59 82 57 / 60 90 40 0 Sweetwater 86 57 83 58 / 50 60 0 0 Ozona 89 55 85 57 / 10 60 0 0 Brady 81 59 82 60 / 40 90 20 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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