Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 4:44 AM   Moonset 6:08 PM

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FXUS64 KSJT 061100 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 600 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low clouds will continue to stream north across West Central Texas this morning, and persist through late morning or early afternoon. After that, a dryline develop and push into the area.
Ahead of the dryline, an unstable air mass will prevail with CAPE values well above 3000 J/KG. However, mid level temperatures have warmed and are acting as a cap, and most if not all CAMs are indicating that this cap will prevent convection across most of the area. A little hesitant about this with many of the CAMs also hinting at a mid level CU field developing across the eastern big Country south into the Heartland, an indication the models are at least trying to break through the cap. Will include some small POPs a little farther west than the CAMs indicate just to be safe, especially given the instability in place.

Otherwise, warm this afternoon with hottest temperatures across the Concho Valley on the back side of the dryline. Highs in the 90s in those locations.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Highs across the Big Country will be in the mid 80s to near 90, with highs elsewhere in the low to mid 90s. Expect generally dry conditions to prevail.

On Thursday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas Thursday morning. Expect gusty north winds along with cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs in the Big Country will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with highs elsewhere in the mid 80s to near 90. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front, mainly across our southeast counties. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to near 60. The cooler temperatures will continue into Friday, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

This weekend, the GFS and ECMWF both show an upper level trough/low developing across the Desert Southwest Saturday. This feature will then track across the Southern Plains Sunday. The ECMWF is a bit slower and deeper with this feature than the GFS, which results in a wetter solution. Given the uncertainty, PoPs this weekend were kept in the slight chance to low end chance category. Highs this weekend will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mainly MVFR cigs continue to stream north across West Central Texas early this morning. These should persist through mid to late morning and then lift and break up, leaving VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, south winds this morning will shift southwest and then become gusty for the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 88 57 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 91 60 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 88 68 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 84 63 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 Sweetwater 90 58 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 90 63 92 67 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 83 66 89 70 / 10 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,