Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cuthbert, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:36PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuthbert, GA
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location: 31.77, -84.79     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 291456
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1056 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms have pushed across the western
portion of the cwa. In addition, extensive high clouds have spread
across much of the area and this may help to limit some of the
instability this afternoon. While some hi-res models suggest no
convection this afternoon, with remnant boundaries and some
heating despite the high clouds, not going to rule out some
convection still this afternoon and thus have left mainly 20-40
percent pops in the forecast for today. High clouds and morning
showers will help to limit severe potential for this afternoon.

Prev discussion [643 am edt]
Near term [through today]
A weakening MCS continues to move eastward across mississippi as of
3 am, although showers and a few thunderstorms are starting to
develop along an outflow boundary on the southern edge of this
feature in southeastern ms. Latest cams differ on the handling of
this feature, but some suggest that a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms will make it as far eastward as SE alabama and the fl
panhandle. Despite some dry air at mid levels, there is very moist
air at lower levels and ample instability near the gulf coast with
sbcape around 2000-3000 j kg and little to no CIN in this area
(increasing CIN farther inland). As a result, it is possible that
scattered showers and thunderstorms could make it to our western
zones in the morning before dissipating, and therefore I have
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms to 30-50 percent in
the fl panhandle and SE alabama during this time.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
across most of our area in the afternoon and evening hours when
ample instability is expected to develop (sbcape from 2000-3000 j kg
across our area), and leftover outflow boundaries from the
aforementioned MCS could provide forcing. Chances will be highest
across our northwestern areas where deep layer moisture will be
present (pwat values increasing to near 2" during the late afternoon
and evening), and lowest in the eastern fl big bend where mid-level
dry air will be present. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is
possible across our northern areas, where the moderate-high
instability will combine with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear
to create potential for isolated damaging wind and or hail. Hot and
humid conditions will continue, with highs in the low-mid 90s across
sw georgia and inland fl big bend. Highs should remain in the 80s
near the gulf coast and across our western areas, where ample cloud
cover is expected to persist for much of the day.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
The upper-level pattern over the CONUS will be characterized
primarily by a broad, fairly strong trough centered over the great
lakes. This will keep the storm tracks well to our north. At the
surface, our forecast area will be on the western extent of the west
atlantic ridge. Precip water values will be near average at about
1.50 inches. In the absence of significant synoptic scale forcing,
we will rely on mesoscale boundary interactions to trigger daily
thunderstorms, primarily through the sea breeze fronts and outflow
boundaries from any nearby storm clusters. Daytime pops will range
from 20 to 40%, which is close to average for the beginning of our
summer rainy season. While neither the CAPE nor deep-layer shear
appear impressive, localized updraft enhancement could allow a storm
or two to briefly become marginally severe.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
Nearly zonal upper-level flow over the southeast will gradually
morph into a broad longwave trough by the weekend. The consensus of
global models forecasts a gradual increase in deep-layer moisture
across our region, which, along with southwest flow aloft, would
generally correlate to increasing rain chances later this week and
into the weekend. Temperatures on Thursday will be near normal
with lows around 70 and highs in the lower 90s. However, as clouds
and rain chances increase, highs will "only" be in the upper 80s.

Aviation [through 12z Tuesday]
Lifr ifr CIGS and visibility have developed at tlh during the past
couple hours as patchy fog has increased in this area. At all
other terminals in our area,VFR conditions currently prevail. A
cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving northeastward
across the fl panhandle and could impact ecp and dhn with brief
visibility reductions and or gusty winds later this morning.

During the afternoon, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
spread eastward to our other terminals with brief visibility
reductions possible, butVFR conditions prevailing for most of the
day. Dhn and aby could see another brief round of showers and
thunderstorms tonight, but chances are too low at this time to
include in the tafs.

With a high pressure ridge near the area, west to southwest winds
will mainly be less than 15 knots with significant waves less than 3
feet. Winds and chop will tend to be a little higher near the coast
each afternoon as the daily sea breeze develops.

Fire weather
Although dispersion values could briefly exceed critical
thresholds this afternoon, no fire weather concerns are
anticipated due to light winds and minimum rh values remaining
well above critical thresholds.

Organized heavy rain is unlikely, but isolated heavy rain is
possible each afternoon over the next several days. Area rivers were
below their local action stages.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 91 70 90 70 90 30 0 30 20 30
panama city 83 74 84 72 84 40 10 20 10 20
dothan 87 70 85 68 88 50 20 40 20 40
albany 91 70 88 69 89 40 30 40 20 30
valdosta 93 70 91 69 90 20 20 30 20 40
cross city 92 70 92 70 92 10 0 10 10 30
apalachicola 86 72 86 72 87 20 0 10 10 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt 7 pm cdt this evening for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Fieux
near term... Lahr
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Lahr
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Lahr
hydrology... Fournier

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eufaula Municipal Airport, AL22 mi75 minVar 610.00 miFair79°F72°F79%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from EUF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW9
1 day agoW743W9
2 days agoW53W5SW5CalmS65SW5S3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW3SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm365

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fort Rucker, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.