Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 10:49 PM   Moonset 7:38 AM

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FXUS64 KEPZ 270526 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1126 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Another windy day is expected for Saturday with most areas seeing west winds of 20-35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Temperatures will also be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Friday. For most of next week, 10-20mph winds will prevail almost daily with temperatures warming back up into the mid 80s to low 90s for the lowlands by midweek.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper trough is currently over the Great Basin with energy dropping down the west side of it which will allow it to cutoff as it enters the Four Corners. A decent surface gradient will remain over the area through 06Z-09Z but then appears to be a 3-6 hour break before quickly picking up again. Windy conditions will likely continue through the evening hours(especially eastern mountain slopes) before this wind break moves in. The Borderland will again be in the favorable location for a windy day on Saturday. Models showing about 5KTS less wind at H85 and H70 with this system compared to yesterday and direction will be a little more west than southwest. We will still see some areas reach Wind Advisory criteria. 75th Percentile wind speed gusts are around 42-46KTS for the lowlands from Luna County into Otero and El Paso counties plus the Sacs. Will go with a Wind Advisory for this area. A little slower wind speeds, cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and a westerly wind direction should limit dust to maybe localized areas of 1-3SM. As this system pushes through, models still showing some light precip in the Gila region. Models don't increase dew points much above 30-35, but with cooler temps aloft, some higher elevation areas could squeeze out a tenth of an inch or less. Could even be snow down to around 7k feet Sat morning.

The storm system will lift into the Northern Plains Sunday and we will see a mainly west to southwest flow setup over the area for the remainder of the period. In general, temperatures will gradually be warming up with some areas reaching 90 degrees again by Tuesday. Winds generally 10-20 mph through this time. The one change that is possible in the pattern is both GFS and EC showing dryline pushing west through the area Thu Night/Fri Morn. Moisture isn't very deep this far west though with dew points dropping into the 30s during the day Fri. The operational GFS is more aggressive with cooler temperatures and possible precip chances, but this is the cold end of the ensemble spread with the GEFS Mean closer to the operational EC, so went closer to this solution which brings a little cool down, but temperatures remain near average.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The gusty winds will likely continue at least off and on tonight so all the TAF sites have at least some gusty winds from the west mentioned. The strongest winds tonight will be around KELP. The gusty winds will continue during the morning on Saturday and get stronger as we go into late morning and early afternoon. The winds on Saturday will be stronger than today's (Friday) winds, but probably not as strong as the winds we saw on Thursday. Having said that we did see a little blowing dust today, so I would imagine we will see a little more patch blowing dust tomorrow, but with a little lower winds speeds and a little lower temperatures, we won't see the same amount of dust as we saw on Thursday. Our ceilings tonight will remain unlimited. During the day on Saturday we will see some low or mid clouds, but ceilings should continue to be unlimited.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Another critical weather day is expected for eastern zones on Saturday as a system similar to the last one moves through the Four Corners with winds still 20-30mph and gusts over 45 mph.
Will keep RFW going as is. For the remainder of the period, a zonal flow will keep west winds around 10-20 mph and RH's 6-12%.
So no critical conditions expected after Saturday, but near critical is possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 56 75 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 46 70 43 75 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 30 46 30 53 / 0 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 68 45 76 / 0 10 0 0 Silver City 39 58 38 68 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 45 70 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 68 40 74 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 72 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 71 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 52 71 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 69 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 47 71 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 70 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 39 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 57 34 64 / 0 10 0 0 Timberon 32 57 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 59 38 69 / 0 10 0 0 Hillsboro 41 66 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 68 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 58 31 69 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 39 63 36 71 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 39 66 38 74 / 20 10 0 0 Mule Creek 36 60 37 70 / 20 20 0 0 Faywood 41 63 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 44 69 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 69 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 41 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ407-410-411- 414>416-427.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ112.

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