Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX
May 6, 2024 1:39 AM MDT (07:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 4:08 AM Moonset 5:34 PM |
FXUS64 KEPZ 060541 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1141 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Warm and breezy conditions will continue with winds peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. Combined with very dry conditions, the fire danger will be high. We see a decrease in winds from Thursday onward.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
An upper level trough covers the western half of the CONUS this afternoon with an elongated low covering roughly the state of NV.
The parent low will do a cyclonic rotation over the Northern Rockies through much of the period. This pattern will keep us at the best of the long-wave trough and at the southern end of the H500 jet. Persistent lee troughing will result though the location for the center of the low will vary across the Central and Southern High Plains. We will stay breezy to low-end windy each afternoon as a result. A more notable trough passes tonight into tomorrow morning, which will keep east slope locations breezy tonight. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest day as another s/w passes to our north during the afternoon. Wednesday will be a nudge lower than Tuesday. The main impact will be high fire danger. Temperatures will be near or just above seasonal normals though added breezes will keep morning lows above normal.
On Thursday, the Desert SW will still be at the base of this persistent long-wave trough while the same parent low mentioned above continues its tour of the Intermountain West. The main difference for Thursday will be a cooler air mass that will push down the plains, inhibiting lee troughing forcing a broad surface trough axis to form across the SW quadrant of NM. The weak pressure gradient will weaken winds, allowing just some modest afternoon breezes.
As has maddeningly been the case, models show the cooler, more moist air mass pushing into the CWA on Friday before retreating back to the east in the afternoon, doing the same thing on Saturday. At the same time, our vacationing UL low begins pivoting to the southwest, providing some dynamics both Friday and Saturday. Wherever this moisture and dynamics interplays, there may be at least isolated thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I find myself very skeptical our CWA will maintain sufficient moisture for precip. How many discussions have I written now commenting on models bringing in moisture in the day 6-9 time frame only for it to never materialize? Add this one to the count. Maybe this time, it will be correct, but even then, far eastern areas would be favored. Indeed, NBM has some low POPs for the Sacs and eastern border for Saturday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Surface winds remaining gusty tonight as dry, southwest flow aloft increases at the base of a low pressure system advancing across the northern Rockies. WSW surface flow 230-260 at 10 to 20 knots overnight. FL070 winds of 40 knots tonight, with a few of those gusts reaching ground level along mountain peaks and east slopes. Expect a few gusts to 30 knots early Monday morning at KELP. Winds will increase further Monday afternoon more out of the west 250-280 at 20 to 30 knots with peak gusts to 35 knots. Will need to monitor for blowing dust and possible visibility reductions Monday afternoon. Skies generally FEW200-SCT200 overnight with skies clear on Monday.
30-Dennhardt
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
We will continue to see a stretch of near critical to critical fire conditions with periods of extremely critical, especially Tuesday.
The air mass that brought good to excellent moisture recoveries to the eastern half of the CWFA has retreated back to the east with another afternoon of very low min RH values anticipated. Overnight tonight, a Pacific front will sweep through which will bring modest cooling and slightly better min RH values tomorrow afternoon. Nevertheless, min RH values will still fall below 15 percent and combine with afternoon winds around 20 MPH to create critical fire concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect. RFTI values for Monday will range 3 to 6, with the lower end assuming winds will fall just short of 20 MPH.
On Tuesday, winds increase some for the entire area while min RH values fall a few points. This will lead to more widespread critical to locally extreme fire concerns as Max RFTI values will be as high as 8. A fire weather watch is in effect though winds will be a bit more borderline within our Texas zones. Red flag conditions are more likely to be met across higher elevations and east slope areas within Texas. Wednesday looks to be similar to Tuesday, so more fire headlines will likely be issued over the coming days. Finally by Thursday, winds subside enough to alleviate fire concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 61 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 54 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 58 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 81 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 78 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 88 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 86 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 52 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 83 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 83 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 46 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 74 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 75 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 73 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 75 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 81 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 81 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ110>113.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1141 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Warm and breezy conditions will continue with winds peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. Combined with very dry conditions, the fire danger will be high. We see a decrease in winds from Thursday onward.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
An upper level trough covers the western half of the CONUS this afternoon with an elongated low covering roughly the state of NV.
The parent low will do a cyclonic rotation over the Northern Rockies through much of the period. This pattern will keep us at the best of the long-wave trough and at the southern end of the H500 jet. Persistent lee troughing will result though the location for the center of the low will vary across the Central and Southern High Plains. We will stay breezy to low-end windy each afternoon as a result. A more notable trough passes tonight into tomorrow morning, which will keep east slope locations breezy tonight. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest day as another s/w passes to our north during the afternoon. Wednesday will be a nudge lower than Tuesday. The main impact will be high fire danger. Temperatures will be near or just above seasonal normals though added breezes will keep morning lows above normal.
On Thursday, the Desert SW will still be at the base of this persistent long-wave trough while the same parent low mentioned above continues its tour of the Intermountain West. The main difference for Thursday will be a cooler air mass that will push down the plains, inhibiting lee troughing forcing a broad surface trough axis to form across the SW quadrant of NM. The weak pressure gradient will weaken winds, allowing just some modest afternoon breezes.
As has maddeningly been the case, models show the cooler, more moist air mass pushing into the CWA on Friday before retreating back to the east in the afternoon, doing the same thing on Saturday. At the same time, our vacationing UL low begins pivoting to the southwest, providing some dynamics both Friday and Saturday. Wherever this moisture and dynamics interplays, there may be at least isolated thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I find myself very skeptical our CWA will maintain sufficient moisture for precip. How many discussions have I written now commenting on models bringing in moisture in the day 6-9 time frame only for it to never materialize? Add this one to the count. Maybe this time, it will be correct, but even then, far eastern areas would be favored. Indeed, NBM has some low POPs for the Sacs and eastern border for Saturday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Surface winds remaining gusty tonight as dry, southwest flow aloft increases at the base of a low pressure system advancing across the northern Rockies. WSW surface flow 230-260 at 10 to 20 knots overnight. FL070 winds of 40 knots tonight, with a few of those gusts reaching ground level along mountain peaks and east slopes. Expect a few gusts to 30 knots early Monday morning at KELP. Winds will increase further Monday afternoon more out of the west 250-280 at 20 to 30 knots with peak gusts to 35 knots. Will need to monitor for blowing dust and possible visibility reductions Monday afternoon. Skies generally FEW200-SCT200 overnight with skies clear on Monday.
30-Dennhardt
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
We will continue to see a stretch of near critical to critical fire conditions with periods of extremely critical, especially Tuesday.
The air mass that brought good to excellent moisture recoveries to the eastern half of the CWFA has retreated back to the east with another afternoon of very low min RH values anticipated. Overnight tonight, a Pacific front will sweep through which will bring modest cooling and slightly better min RH values tomorrow afternoon. Nevertheless, min RH values will still fall below 15 percent and combine with afternoon winds around 20 MPH to create critical fire concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect. RFTI values for Monday will range 3 to 6, with the lower end assuming winds will fall just short of 20 MPH.
On Tuesday, winds increase some for the entire area while min RH values fall a few points. This will lead to more widespread critical to locally extreme fire concerns as Max RFTI values will be as high as 8. A fire weather watch is in effect though winds will be a bit more borderline within our Texas zones. Red flag conditions are more likely to be met across higher elevations and east slope areas within Texas. Wednesday looks to be similar to Tuesday, so more fire headlines will likely be issued over the coming days. Finally by Thursday, winds subside enough to alleviate fire concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 61 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 54 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 58 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 81 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 78 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 88 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 86 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 52 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 83 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 83 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 46 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 74 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 75 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 73 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 75 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 81 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 81 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ110>113.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 3 sm | 44 min | WSW 15G23 | 7 sm | Clear | 77°F | 7°F | 7% | 29.85 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 4 sm | 48 min | SW 16G26 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 7°F | 7% | 29.81 | |
| KDNA DONA ANA COUNTY INTL JETPORT,NM | 14 sm | 24 min | WSW 15G24 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 5°F | 7% | 29.83 |
El Paso, TX,
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