Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Tucson, AZ
March 18, 2024 6:53 PM MST (01:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 6:35 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM Moonset 2:53 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTWC 182100 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level low over Arizona will bring unsettled weather, especially into this evening to locales northeast of Tucson where scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms are expected.
Precipitation chances shift Tuesday and Wednesday into the higher terrain of Graham and Greenlee County with dry conditions elsewhere.
Dry and warmer area-wide Thursday through Saturday, then another storm system by Sunday into early next week with cooler temperatures, gusty winds and precipitation chances.
DISCUSSION
The upper low has retrograded west this afternoon into southeast California. Our forecast area is now on the eastern flank of this system and we're seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Tucson northeastward. In addition, strong east to southeast winds continue for eastern sections of our forecast area and we've had a gust to 45 MPH at Safford airport in the past couple of hours. Latest HRRR/HRRR is in good agreement with the placement of convection this afternoon and matches what we're seeing on radar.
Main area of concern with a few stronger storms is eastern Pinal and western Graham County. The strongest storms will have gusty winds to around 40 mph and small hail. As we get into the evening hours, showers will tend to diminish with the main focus shifting into Graham and Greenlee Counties. The strong gradient winds for eastern areas will also lessen as the afternoon progresses and into the evening. Snow levels today are 8000 to 8500 feet with several inches of additional snow possible on the mountain peaks around 9000 feet.
The upper low is finally going to shift eastward Tuesday across central Arizona. However, drier air on the southern flank of the system should keep most of our forecast area dry with the exception of the White Mountains and adjacent higher terrain of Graham/Greenlee Counties. The low will shift into New Mexico Wednesday as it opens up with slight chances of showers continuing for the White Mountains with dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals for most locales through Wednesday.
Drier and warmer conditions Thursday through Saturday with transient shortwave ridging Thursday and Friday. West to southwest flow aloft increases slightly Saturday ahead of the next system with an uptick in breezes. The more notable changes come in by Sunday/Monday as another trough moves into the western US. Still some differences in the ensembles on timing and trajectory but confidence is increasing in a cooling trend with gusty winds and precipitation chances Sunday into early next week.
AVIATION...Valid through 20/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 7k-10k ft MSL mainly from KTUS eastward. SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA mainly to the northeast of KTUS across eastern Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties thru 19/03Z. SFC winds ELY/SELY for KSAD and KDUG 15-25 kts with gusts 30 to 35 kts this afternoon, diminishing to around 10 kts aft 19/02Z. Further west for KTUS/KOLS, westerly/southwesterly SFC winds 6 to 12 kts this afternoon, becoming variable at 10 kts or less tonight. SFC winds become SWLY/WLY 8-16 kts aft 19/12Z for all locales. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into this evening from Tucson northeastward, then Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in the White Mountains. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, then warming to above normal by Thursday. Gusty east to southeast winds with gusts above 30 mph for eastern areas today, otherwise typical diurnal wind patterns are expected through the week with minimum RHs remaining above 20% through Wednesday then dipping into the teens in the valleys thereafter. Dry Thursday through Saturday then another weather system around Sunday and early next week with gusty winds, cooler temperatures and rain chances.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level low over Arizona will bring unsettled weather, especially into this evening to locales northeast of Tucson where scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms are expected.
Precipitation chances shift Tuesday and Wednesday into the higher terrain of Graham and Greenlee County with dry conditions elsewhere.
Dry and warmer area-wide Thursday through Saturday, then another storm system by Sunday into early next week with cooler temperatures, gusty winds and precipitation chances.
DISCUSSION
The upper low has retrograded west this afternoon into southeast California. Our forecast area is now on the eastern flank of this system and we're seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Tucson northeastward. In addition, strong east to southeast winds continue for eastern sections of our forecast area and we've had a gust to 45 MPH at Safford airport in the past couple of hours. Latest HRRR/HRRR is in good agreement with the placement of convection this afternoon and matches what we're seeing on radar.
Main area of concern with a few stronger storms is eastern Pinal and western Graham County. The strongest storms will have gusty winds to around 40 mph and small hail. As we get into the evening hours, showers will tend to diminish with the main focus shifting into Graham and Greenlee Counties. The strong gradient winds for eastern areas will also lessen as the afternoon progresses and into the evening. Snow levels today are 8000 to 8500 feet with several inches of additional snow possible on the mountain peaks around 9000 feet.
The upper low is finally going to shift eastward Tuesday across central Arizona. However, drier air on the southern flank of the system should keep most of our forecast area dry with the exception of the White Mountains and adjacent higher terrain of Graham/Greenlee Counties. The low will shift into New Mexico Wednesday as it opens up with slight chances of showers continuing for the White Mountains with dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals for most locales through Wednesday.
Drier and warmer conditions Thursday through Saturday with transient shortwave ridging Thursday and Friday. West to southwest flow aloft increases slightly Saturday ahead of the next system with an uptick in breezes. The more notable changes come in by Sunday/Monday as another trough moves into the western US. Still some differences in the ensembles on timing and trajectory but confidence is increasing in a cooling trend with gusty winds and precipitation chances Sunday into early next week.
AVIATION...Valid through 20/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 7k-10k ft MSL mainly from KTUS eastward. SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA mainly to the northeast of KTUS across eastern Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties thru 19/03Z. SFC winds ELY/SELY for KSAD and KDUG 15-25 kts with gusts 30 to 35 kts this afternoon, diminishing to around 10 kts aft 19/02Z. Further west for KTUS/KOLS, westerly/southwesterly SFC winds 6 to 12 kts this afternoon, becoming variable at 10 kts or less tonight. SFC winds become SWLY/WLY 8-16 kts aft 19/12Z for all locales. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into this evening from Tucson northeastward, then Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in the White Mountains. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, then warming to above normal by Thursday. Gusty east to southeast winds with gusts above 30 mph for eastern areas today, otherwise typical diurnal wind patterns are expected through the week with minimum RHs remaining above 20% through Wednesday then dipping into the teens in the valleys thereafter. Dry Thursday through Saturday then another weather system around Sunday and early next week with gusty winds, cooler temperatures and rain chances.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDMA DAVIS MONTHAN AFB,AZ | 5 sm | 58 min | WNW 17G21 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 36°F | 30% | 29.93 | |
KTUS TUCSON INTL,AZ | 7 sm | 60 min | NNW 15G22 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 37°F | 31% | 29.97 | |
KRYN RYAN FIELD,AZ | 12 sm | 68 min | NW 14 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 34°F | 26% | 29.95 | |
KAVQ MARANA RGNL,AZ | 19 sm | 18 min | NW 08 | 10 sm | -- | 70°F | 34°F | 26% | 29.96 |
Tucson, AZ,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE