Sunday, February17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
South Tucson, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:12PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:41 PM MST (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Tucson, AZ
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location: 32.22, -110.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 180407
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
906 pm mst Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis Increasing moisture for mostly valley rain and mountain
snow especially Monday into Tuesday. This cold system should produce
some snow to valley floors east of tucson Monday night into early
Tuesday, and snow potentially within portions of the tucson metro
area as well. Dry conditions on Wednesday as unseasonably cool
temperatures prevail. The next system late in the week will produce
more rain and potentially significant mountain snow accumulations.

Discussion The initial round of valley rain and mountain snow
showers continued to approach southeast arizona late this evening.

Regional radars detected showers developing across extreme northern
pinal and gila counties at this hour along with a webcam showing
snow flurries on mount graham. The current forecast depicted showers
increasing tonight and spreading eastward area-wide by Monday
afternoon. The latest trends suggested a slight delay on the onset
of showers across the area, but not enough to justify an update.

That said, please refer to the additional sections in this product
for more details on this initial wave of precipitation, and the next
storm system impacting the area on Thursday into Friday night.

Aviation Valid through 19 06z.

Few-sct clouds 5k-8k ft agl will gradually thicken through the
forecast period as shra shsn develop tonight continuing into Monday.

Surface winds mainly wly 6-14 kts, decreasing early Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather The cool and wet pattern continues with a series of
weather systems this week. The first system brings rain and low
elevation snow Sunday night into Tuesday morning, with a second more
vigorous system Thursday into Saturday morning. 20-foot winds become
breezy at times, especially Thursday afternoon as southwesterly
winds reach 15-25 mph.

Prev discussion A series of impulses embedded within a persistent
upper trough over the western CONUS will move across southeast
arizona into Tuesday. Precipitation chances will increase across the
area later tonight, and especially Monday into Monday night, before
precip gradually decreases on Tuesday.

There were timing differences between the deterministic 17 12z
nam12 gfs ECMWF mainly regarding the onset and ending of precip at
any given location (gfs generally faster versus ecmwf, and
especially versus the slowest nam12). Thus, forecast confidence is
lowered somewhat regarding timing exactness.

At any rate, the official forecast depicts much of southeast arizona
to remain precip-free this evening. The exception is generally north
of an ajo-picacho peak-safford line where isolated valley rain and
higher terrain snow showers should prevail. Thereafter, a fairly
fast increase in valley rain mountain snow is expected to occur late
tonight and especially Monday. Winter weather advisories for snow
continue for several mountain ranges northeast to south of tucson.

Please refer to AWIPS product phxwswtwc wmo header wwus45 ktwc for

Some ensemble members as well as the weather prediction center
forecast suggests that snow may also fall at some valley floors east
to south of tucson Monday night into early Tuesday morning. There
was an addition made to the inherited winter weather advisory in
this regard. For this forecast issuance, have opted not to include
portions of the tucson metro area in the winter weather advisory.

However, would not be surprised that a winter weather advisory for
snow includes portions of the tucson metro area, especially the far
east to southeast portions of the area - the vail area, for example.

Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches which meet criteria may briefly
occur Monday night early Tuesday morning.

Precipitation chances will gradually decrease on Tuesday with no
additional snow accumulations of significance. Dry conditions to
prevail area-wide Wednesday.

Thereafter, the global models continue to suggest that a markedly
wetter system will bring potentially significant mountain snowfall
to the area Thursday into Friday. Have noted that chances for snow
accums at lower elevations ("valley floors") may actually be lower
versus the early week system. However, for point emphasis, forecast
confidence is low at this time regarding this prospect. Reality may
be such that more snow eventually occurs across lower elevations.

Residual moisture on Saturday as the mid upper trough axis moves
east of the area is sufficient for slight chance of valley rain
mountain snow showers. Dry conditions to prevail next Saturday night
into Sunday under zonal flow aloft.

Unseasonably cool (or cold, depending upon point of view) daytime
temperatures will prevail into next Saturday. The potential for a
widespread hard freeze across pima southern pinal counties appears
somewhat lower versus 24 hours ago, at least based on the various
17 12z models.

Twc watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 3 am mst
Tuesday for azz510 above 5000 feet.

Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 pm mst
Monday for azz511-513-514 above 5000 feet.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 8 am mst Tuesday for

Winter weather advisory from 8 pm Monday to 3 am mst Tuesday for

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ5 mi1.7 hrsWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F23°F37%1014.4 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ7 mi48 minW 510.00 miFair47°F24°F41%1015.1 hPa
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ12 mi1.9 hrsWSW 610.00 miFair46°F26°F46%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
1 day agoSE5SE3W4W6NW3W6CalmNW9NW7NW6W4W4NW7NW9
2 days agoS11W4CalmNW4CalmCalmSW5S3W3W4N4N5NW5NW4CalmNW5NW7N7N7N8N8NW7NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.