Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Tucson, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:26PM Monday November 12, 2018 11:55 PM MST (06:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Tucson, AZ
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location: 32.22, -110.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 130420
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
920 pm mst Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis A hard freeze will occur late tonight into early Tuesday
morning across valleys east to south of tucson. Expect gusty winds
at times with unseasonably cool daytime temperatures as well into
Wednesday. Thereafter, a warming trend with less wind as dry
conditions continue later in the week and into this weekend.

Discussion Clear skies prevail across southeast arizona at this
time. A very dry regime was ongoing with dew points at lower
elevations valid 9 pm mst ranging from near zero in south central
pinal county to near 20 degrees f at safford and douglas. The 13 00z
ktwc sounding total precip water value was a remarkably-low 0.12
inch. Surface winds at lower elevations were from the northeast to
east mainly at 5-15 mph. The exception was near douglas where a gust
to 32 kts (37 mph) was recorded at 8:40 pm mst.

13 00z upper air plots depicted a highly amplified ridge axis
adjacent the west coast, and a deep upper positively tilted trough
axis that extended from the upper great lakes southwestward into
southern new mexico. Moderate to fast nwly nly flow prevailed across
southeast arizona above 700 mb.

Based on satellite trends and moisture fields via the various
numerical weather prediction models, clear skies will continue
across southeast arizona the rest of tonight and into Tuesday. The
very dry regime in combination with the aforementioned flow will
result in low temps late tonight and early Tuesday morning fairly
similar or generally a few degrees colder than temps that occurred
late last night and early this morning.

Based on various guidance including the most recent 13 00z nam12,
see no reason to tamper at this time with the inherited hard freeze
warning in effect from 2 am to 8 am mst Tuesday for valleys east to
south of tucson. As was noted in the previous discussion section
(see below), the stronger than usual surface wind speeds for the
rest of tonight will have an impact on temps for wind-prone locales.

However, continued cold advection at all levels behind the departing
upper trough is expected to support the inherited forecast temps.

Gusty generally easterly winds should prevail Tuesday followed by
some decrease in wind starting Tuesday evening and into Wednesday,
especially for areas east of tucson. Forecast high temps Tuesday
will be well below seasonal normals for mid-november. This scenario
continues to be handled extremely well via the inherited forecast.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

Aviation Valid through 14 06z.

Clear skies into Tuesday evening. Surface wind into Tuesday
afternoon mainly ely 8-20 kts with gusts near 35 kts at times.

Surface wind Tuesday evening diminishing generally to 5-15 kts with
a continued mainly ely component. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Very low humidity levels and gusty northeast to
east winds of 15-25 mph will continue tonight through Tuesday. Wind
speeds late tonight into early Tuesday will be highly variable
depending on topographic shadowing and where inversions are able to
setup despite the general wind. While the overall fire danger is
low, the wind and very low rh conditions could result in challenging
dead grass fires during the afternoon hours. Easterly winds will
persist on Wednesday, but at lesser speeds for much of the area.

Cool temperatures expected through Wednesday with a moderating trend
into the weekend with humidity levels remaining low. Going to be
awhile before there is a good chance of wetting rains, at least
seven days.

Prev discussion 300 pm mst Breezy winds overnight will be one
result of a dry shortwave tracking south along the az nm border into
Tuesday morning. This occurrence will also introduce additional
cool dry air to the same valleys which froze this morning, inducing
a hard freeze for those spots. There is some trickiness to this
forecast though; locations which are shielded well from the easterly
winds could experience low temperatures Tuesday morning 3 to 6
degrees colder compared to this morning.

On the other hand, locales which are well exposed to easterly
breezes may only freeze to the same degree as this morning, or
potentially warm a degree or two. Regardless, there remains high
confidence that low temperatures will have noticeable impacts, and
so the hard freeze warning remains in effect from 2 am mst to 8 am
mst Tuesday morning. Also want to note that wind speeds are not
expected to meet or exceed wind advisory criteria for an extended
period of time.

The trough moves out of the picture during the day Tuesday, but a
surface pressure gradient will remain in place, allowing for
easterly breezes to continue in the favored locations. Daytime
temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees cooler compared to today behind
the departed trough. Heading into Wednesday, expect another cold
morning as less wind for much of the area will allow more of a
radiational cooling process to take place, and for some this could
be the coldest morning of the fall so far. We should start to see
temperatures begin their rebound by Wednesday afternoon though, with
high pressure building in from the west.

A slow warming trend under northwesterly and eventually westerly
flow aloft will continue into Friday, with daytime temperatures
within a degree or two of mid-november averages. Morning lows should
also begin to creep out of the bitter cold during this period.

Seasonable conditions will persist this weekend into early next week
with some passing high clouds, less wind and no rain.

Twc watches warnings advisories
Hard freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am mst Tuesday for azz503-507>509.

Discussion... Francis
aviation... Francis
fire weather... Cerniglia
previous discussion... Carpenter
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ5 mi2 hrsESE 1410.00 miFair49°F9°F20%1026.1 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ7 mi63 minE 1010.00 miFair50°F14°F24%1027.4 hPa
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ12 mi4.2 hrsNNE 8 G 1810.00 miFair55°F1°F11%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE3S5SE4SE6S5CalmCalmS5SE5CalmCalmN6NW5NW5NW5E12
G18
NE14E9E6E9E10E14E9
1 day agoS4S4S6S8S8S7SE7SE4CalmS6CalmNW7W3NW8
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W13NW11NW11NW10NW9NW5W6W4SW7
2 days agoE11E11SE12SE11SE14SE12SE15SE13SE15SE15
G22
SE12SE11S5SW5NW7SW9N11N10NW5NW5CalmS6S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.