Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Tucson, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday June 22, 2017 1:28 PM MST (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:05AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Tucson, AZ
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location: 32.22, -110.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 221707
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
1005 am mst thur jun 22 2017

Synopsis Expect very hot and near record temperatures into this
weekend. Dry conditions will prevail for much of the area into
Saturday. A more favorable pattern will then provide scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms especially Sunday and continuing
into the middle of next week.

Discussion Very hot temperatures to continue today, although not
quite as hot as temperatures that were recorded earlier this week.

Several hrrr solutions as well as the univ of az wrf-nam suggest
that a few thunderstorms may occur briefly this afternoon across the
white mountains and near the international border adjacent santa
cruz cochise counties. However, am opting to maintain a dry forecast
area-wide at this time.

Have also noted that the 22 12z mav met guidance wind speeds have
trended downward for ksad versus the past several solutions. Thus,
am still leaning toward a scenario of wind speeds in the upper gila
river valley (including safford), as well as in the northern portion
of fire zone 152, will only be marginally sufficient to briefly
achieve wind advisory or red flag warning criteria.

The current forecast is in excellent shape and no updates are
warranted at this time. Please refer to the additional sections for
further detail.

Aviation Valid thru 23 18z.

Expect clear skies to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft agl into Friday
morning. Surface wind this afternoon nwly 10-25 kts with gusts to
near 35 kts. The strongest speeds will be northeast of ktus and
especially near ksad. Surface wind variable in direction less than
12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
amendments.

Fire weather Dry conditions will prevail today and Friday and
across much of the area Saturday. The exception is near the new
mexico border where a slight chance of thunderstorms may occur
Saturday afternoon. A more favorable pattern for thunderstorms will
then prevail Sunday through next Wednesday. Expect scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially east to south of
tucson. However, the coverage of thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday
may expand further west to also include fire zone 150 west of tucson.

Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven less than
15 mph. The exception is this afternoon and evening, when gusty
northwest winds should occur, especially northeast of tucson and
across the upper gila river valley including safford. The
combination of the gusty winds and minimum relative humidity of 5 to
10 percent may create critical fire weather conditions in the
northern portion of fire zone 152 late this afternoon. However,
these conditions are not expected be widespread nor long-lived.

Prev discussion 320 am mst Ir satellite imagery indicated
scattered debris cloudiness across southeast arizona this morning.

As such, surface temperatures were still quite warm, as much as 5
degrees warmer than 24 hours ago in some locations.

Drier air aloft moves in today through Saturday along with a slight
moderation in daytime high temperatures. Even so, highs will be
above normal and dangerously hot, with the excessive heat headlines
remaining in place through Sunday evening. Another concern for this
afternoon will be gusty NW winds in the upper gila river valley
including safford. MOS guidances over the last 24 hours have trended
upward with regard to wind speeds, but the inclination is that the
numbers are a bit overdone. However, wind speeds may cross the
threshold to create critical fire weather conditions. Even so,
decided against issuing a red flag warning as conditions will likely
be very localized and short-lived. Please see the fire weather
section below for more details.

Dry conditions continue Friday into Saturday morning, with some
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over the mountains along
the az nm border on Saturday afternoon. Sunday into next week, high
pressure migrates to a much more favorable location to draw deeper
moisture into the region from the south. With that, we'll see a
decrease in chances for dry lightning and an increase in convection
producing measurable rainfall, especially as we get into Monday and
Tuesday. The official forecast calls for isolated to scattered
showers and storms mainly from tucson eastward to the az nm border
starting Sunday and continuing each day next week through Thursday.

As per usual, the best precip chances will be across the higher
elevations including the white and the chiricahua mountains.

As expected, it usually takes a long stretch of very hot
temperatures to kick-start the monsoon, and we should see exactly
that happen over the week. Additionally, we'll get a well-deserved
break from the extreme heat, with highs dipping below warning and
advisory criteria on Monday Tuesday and dropping even further to
near-normal by next Wednesday Thursday.

Twc watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory until 7 pm mst Sunday for azz510>514.

Excessive heat warning until 7 pm mst Sunday for azz501>509-515.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ5 mi91 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds101°F53°F21%1005.6 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ7 mi36 minWNW 910.00 miFair106°F46°F14%1004.7 hPa
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ12 mi1.7 hrsWSW 4 G 1410.00 miFair102°F53°F20%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW9
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SE11SE3N3S3S6CalmSE5E5S13S9S7E6E5S5CalmW3NW7W8W8
1 day agoNE6N9N12
G14
SW11
G18
W10N8N9E4S6SE7SE5E3S6CalmSE6S5S9SE8SE3CalmCalmW3NW6N4
2 days agoW8W10NW12NW16
G21
NW16NW12E18
G22
E9SE4S4SW6S10S7E9SE11SE6SE9S4E5NE5N3N7NW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.