Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frierson, LA
March 19, 2024 5:19 AM CDT (10:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:17 AM Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 1:28 PM Moonset 3:29 AM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 190920 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 420 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The early morning sfc analysis indicates ridging has settled into SE OK/SW AR, with the center of the ridge expected to drift farther S into Deep E TX/N LA by daybreak. A mostly clear sky and light winds have yielded good radiational cooling, with temps having quickly fallen into the lower/mid 30s across much of the Freeze Warning area as of 08Z (with the exception of the more urban areas). This sfc ridge still remains progged to drift farther S into SE TX/S LA by early afternoon, which will begin a moderating trend in temperatures commencing today through Wednesday. While the cirrus shield noted on the morning satellite imagery over much of W and N TX is currently spilling E towards E TX, drier air aloft noted on the morning water vapor imagery along the backside of the longwave trough digging towards the Gulf Coast should help to erode these cigs, with strong insolation resulting in a large diurnal swing in temps from this morning's lows. Did bump max temps up a degree or so to account for the good insolation, with temps again falling off quickly this evening within the dry air mass and light winds. However, min temps Wednesday morning should run some 10-15 degrees warmer than this morning, given light SW winds on the backside of the departing sfc ridge to our SE, and an increase in AC cigs that will shift NE into the Wrn half of the region late this evening and overnight.
These cigs will be in advance of a weak shortwave trough that will translate E across NCntrl TX overnight, and across the region during the day/evening Wednesday. While some sprinkles can't be ruled out Wednesday from these cigs, the presence of very dry low level air should preclude much of this from even reaching the ground.
Rex blocking over the Wrn CONUS that has been persistent the last few days remains progged to weaken tonight, with the Cntrl AZ closed low finally beginning to drift E through NM Wednesday, before opening up into a trough as it moves through TX Thursday.
Good agreement exists amongst the short term progs that this trough will remain somewhat amplified as it approaches the region, in time as low level moisture begins to increase Wednesday across the Wrn half of the area, which deepens further Wednesday night.
This trough will also tap the subtropical jet to our S and allowing it to nudge back N, with Pacific moisture aloft deepening through the day. Large scale forcing is set to increase ahead of the trough late Wednesday night across Cntrl OK S into Cntrl TX, with the developing convection beginning to move into SE OK/E TX just prior to daybreak Thursday. Have maintained mid and high chance pops late Wednesday night across SE OK/E TX, before the convection overspreads the remainder of the area Thursday.
15
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The models have trended a bit slower and stronger with this approaching trough, which should result in more numerous convection over the region Thursday, where likely pops were expanded over much of the area. Fortunately, the better instability remains progged to linger over S TX Thursday, although mid level lapse rates should be steep enough to support embedded thunder, with the increasing convection helping to saturate to bndry lyr. The slowing trough should result in convection persisting longer than earlier forecast into at least Thursday evening, where pops were increased to mid and high chance, before diminishing from W to E late. Did maintain slight chance pops Friday morning across the Ern zones to account for any lingering isolated -SHRA near the trough center.
What has changed since the morning model runs Monday is that there is greater consensus that the more amplified troughing solution will result in sfc low development Thursday night over far SE TX near or W of Sabine Pass, with this sfc low sliding E across S LA Friday. Thus, a more Nrthly deep lyr flow would result on the N and back side of this sfc low, and persist through the day Friday.
Post-frontal cigs in wake of this system will inhibit insolation, thus resulting in cooler than advertised daytime temps. Have trimmed back temps areawide Friday, but should this trend continue, cooler conditions than currently advertised will result.
Should finally see the return of the sun by Saturday, along with moderating temps back above normal, but the sun will be short- lived as elevated moisture will quickly spill back E over the area Sunday, ahead of long wave troughing that will dig through the Great Basin into the Rockies and Desert SW. Low level moisture return will commence in earnest Sunday afternoon/night over the Srn Plains with large scale forcing and associated convection increasing again ahead of the trough Sunday night. While scattered convection may affect areas NW of the I-30 corridor late Sunday night, the bulk of the more widespread convection will affect the region Monday. Instability return still remains questionable though, but confidence is high enough for likely pops for much of the area. It remains to be seen though as to whether there will be multiple rounds of convection as we move through midweek, especially as troughing will persist to our W, thus maintaining SW flow aloft through at least midweek.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
For the 19/06Z TAFs, unrestricted VFR conditions will prevail, with widespread SKC aside from SCT to FEW high cirrus across portions of east Texas airspace. As high pressure settles in, winds will become light and variable with some sites nearly calm by daybreak while areas of frost develop. After 19/12Z winds will become southerly, transitioning to southwesterly at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with a few gusts of up to 15 kts possible.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 44 72 54 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 64 40 71 49 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 66 39 69 50 / 0 0 0 30 TXK 65 43 69 52 / 0 0 0 30 ELD 64 39 70 49 / 0 0 0 20 TYR 67 47 70 55 / 0 0 0 50 GGG 67 44 70 54 / 0 0 0 40 LFK 67 46 71 55 / 0 0 0 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ001>006- 012>014-019>022.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-138.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 420 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The early morning sfc analysis indicates ridging has settled into SE OK/SW AR, with the center of the ridge expected to drift farther S into Deep E TX/N LA by daybreak. A mostly clear sky and light winds have yielded good radiational cooling, with temps having quickly fallen into the lower/mid 30s across much of the Freeze Warning area as of 08Z (with the exception of the more urban areas). This sfc ridge still remains progged to drift farther S into SE TX/S LA by early afternoon, which will begin a moderating trend in temperatures commencing today through Wednesday. While the cirrus shield noted on the morning satellite imagery over much of W and N TX is currently spilling E towards E TX, drier air aloft noted on the morning water vapor imagery along the backside of the longwave trough digging towards the Gulf Coast should help to erode these cigs, with strong insolation resulting in a large diurnal swing in temps from this morning's lows. Did bump max temps up a degree or so to account for the good insolation, with temps again falling off quickly this evening within the dry air mass and light winds. However, min temps Wednesday morning should run some 10-15 degrees warmer than this morning, given light SW winds on the backside of the departing sfc ridge to our SE, and an increase in AC cigs that will shift NE into the Wrn half of the region late this evening and overnight.
These cigs will be in advance of a weak shortwave trough that will translate E across NCntrl TX overnight, and across the region during the day/evening Wednesday. While some sprinkles can't be ruled out Wednesday from these cigs, the presence of very dry low level air should preclude much of this from even reaching the ground.
Rex blocking over the Wrn CONUS that has been persistent the last few days remains progged to weaken tonight, with the Cntrl AZ closed low finally beginning to drift E through NM Wednesday, before opening up into a trough as it moves through TX Thursday.
Good agreement exists amongst the short term progs that this trough will remain somewhat amplified as it approaches the region, in time as low level moisture begins to increase Wednesday across the Wrn half of the area, which deepens further Wednesday night.
This trough will also tap the subtropical jet to our S and allowing it to nudge back N, with Pacific moisture aloft deepening through the day. Large scale forcing is set to increase ahead of the trough late Wednesday night across Cntrl OK S into Cntrl TX, with the developing convection beginning to move into SE OK/E TX just prior to daybreak Thursday. Have maintained mid and high chance pops late Wednesday night across SE OK/E TX, before the convection overspreads the remainder of the area Thursday.
15
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The models have trended a bit slower and stronger with this approaching trough, which should result in more numerous convection over the region Thursday, where likely pops were expanded over much of the area. Fortunately, the better instability remains progged to linger over S TX Thursday, although mid level lapse rates should be steep enough to support embedded thunder, with the increasing convection helping to saturate to bndry lyr. The slowing trough should result in convection persisting longer than earlier forecast into at least Thursday evening, where pops were increased to mid and high chance, before diminishing from W to E late. Did maintain slight chance pops Friday morning across the Ern zones to account for any lingering isolated -SHRA near the trough center.
What has changed since the morning model runs Monday is that there is greater consensus that the more amplified troughing solution will result in sfc low development Thursday night over far SE TX near or W of Sabine Pass, with this sfc low sliding E across S LA Friday. Thus, a more Nrthly deep lyr flow would result on the N and back side of this sfc low, and persist through the day Friday.
Post-frontal cigs in wake of this system will inhibit insolation, thus resulting in cooler than advertised daytime temps. Have trimmed back temps areawide Friday, but should this trend continue, cooler conditions than currently advertised will result.
Should finally see the return of the sun by Saturday, along with moderating temps back above normal, but the sun will be short- lived as elevated moisture will quickly spill back E over the area Sunday, ahead of long wave troughing that will dig through the Great Basin into the Rockies and Desert SW. Low level moisture return will commence in earnest Sunday afternoon/night over the Srn Plains with large scale forcing and associated convection increasing again ahead of the trough Sunday night. While scattered convection may affect areas NW of the I-30 corridor late Sunday night, the bulk of the more widespread convection will affect the region Monday. Instability return still remains questionable though, but confidence is high enough for likely pops for much of the area. It remains to be seen though as to whether there will be multiple rounds of convection as we move through midweek, especially as troughing will persist to our W, thus maintaining SW flow aloft through at least midweek.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
For the 19/06Z TAFs, unrestricted VFR conditions will prevail, with widespread SKC aside from SCT to FEW high cirrus across portions of east Texas airspace. As high pressure settles in, winds will become light and variable with some sites nearly calm by daybreak while areas of frost develop. After 19/12Z winds will become southerly, transitioning to southwesterly at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with a few gusts of up to 15 kts possible.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 44 72 54 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 64 40 71 49 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 66 39 69 50 / 0 0 0 30 TXK 65 43 69 52 / 0 0 0 30 ELD 64 39 70 49 / 0 0 0 20 TYR 67 47 70 55 / 0 0 0 50 GGG 67 44 70 54 / 0 0 0 40 LFK 67 46 71 55 / 0 0 0 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ001>006- 012>014-019>022.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-138.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBAD BARKSDALE AFB,LA | 10 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 32°F | 81% | 30.25 | |
KSHV SHREVEPORT RGNL,LA | 13 sm | 23 min | calm | 7 sm | A Few Clouds | 41°F | 28°F | 61% | 30.26 | |
KDTN SHREVEPORT DOWNTOWN,LA | 14 sm | 26 min | calm | 7 sm | Clear | 39°F | 28°F | 65% | 30.27 |
Shreveport, LA,
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