Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:44 AM   Moonset 4:31 PM

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FXUS64 KSHV 051527 AAA AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1027 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A decaying thunderstorm complex has pushed across most of the area as of 10 AM this morning, although some related showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue for another hour or two in far northern and eastern areas for the next hour or two. Our atmosphere will be briefly stabilized by the recent complex, but expect a return to destabilization this afternoon with lingering boundaries likely serving as a focus for more, but less organized, scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A few strong storms containing gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours will be possible this afternoon into this evening, but atmospheric ingredients necessary for anything more than very isolated storms should not be in place. Since activity later today will mainly be driven by instability, expect conditions to dry out by a few hours after sunset. Damp ground and high boundary layer moisture content should allow for at least patchy fog formation late tonight into early tomorrow and the details on that potential will be examined more closely for the afternoon forecast package.
/50/

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread now in advance of an upper level disturbance embedded in southwesterly flow aloft across the Upper Red River Valley of N TX/S OK. Strongest storms reside along the southern edge of the large mass of precipitation that is currently impacting our Deep East Texas zones and these storms reside in some descent sfc based instability along with descent mid-level lapse rates. Further north, closer to the I-20 Corridor and north, elevated instability is sufficient enough that we could still see some hail with any elevated cores with descent lapse rates once again as far north as SE OK. 0-6km Bulk Shear values are weak such that we should not have to concern ourselves with supercell thunderstorms but multi-cell hail and/or wind producers will be possible again, mainly across the southern third of our region through the morning hours today. Kept the same trends of categorical pops across the western 2/3rds of our region today with the back edge of this activity quickly moving from west to east across our region through the morning hours. Beyond the Noon hour, we should see a break in the storm coverage across NE TX into N LA with precip coverage remaining high across our northern third due to the proximity of upper forcing with the exiting of the upper trough itself. There will continue to be a heavy rain/isolated flooding threat as well, mainly near and/or south of the I-20 Corridor this morning with the key word being mostly isolated.

Pops come to and end across our northeast zones this evening with the departure of the disturbance. Weak ridging will prevail in the wake of the upper trough's departure overnight but another, much weaker disturbance will move quickly north and east towards our region during the day Monday. This will provide the upper forcing necessary for additional shower and thunderstorm chances during the day Monday but coverage will not be near like what we have experienced this morning.

Did not stray too far from NBM temps today through Monday.

13

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

By Monday Night, a vigorous upper level trough will rapidly move out of the Intermountain West and into the Southern and Central Plains. This promises to be quite the severe weather producer from the Upper Red River Valley northward into Central Ok and much of KS but our far northwest zones will just get clipped by sufficient forcing for the development of scattered thunderstorms near but mainly north and west of the I-30 Corridor. Kept pops out of the forecast for Tue/Tue Night but southwest flow aloft begins to tighten once again for Wed into Wed Night as an elongated, longwave trough takes up residence from the Intermountain West, eastward across the Central Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes. This pattern is vigorous enough such that a cold front will begin moving south and east towards the I-30 Corridor Wed Night and towards the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and N LA during the day Thu into Thu Night. Needless to say, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across our far northwest zones late Wed/Wed Night and areawide Thu/Thu Night until we can get the cold front south of our region which may not occur until early Friday.

The NBM has finally caught onto post frontal conditions and a welcomed drying trend for Fri thru at least Sat with milder post frontal temperatures as well so did not have to make much in the way of pop changes for late week into the upcoming weekend.

13

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

SHRA and some embedded TSRA continues to prevail across the airspace this morning. This trend will continue through much of the morning and early afternoon before some recovery by the mid to late afternoon period. Regardless, even after SHRA dissipates later this morning, BKN/OVC CIGs will continue through the package. There remains some uncertainty regarding any possible SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. CAMs this morning continue to suggest this closer to 00z, so decided to hold steady with VCSH for most terminals by this stage of the package. This will be monitored with the latest trends through the afternoon. By the end of the package, guidance continues to advertise lowering CIGs once more, with some possible BR development.

RK

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 69 85 73 / 40 30 40 10 MLU 82 67 85 71 / 90 40 30 10 DEQ 76 62 81 67 / 80 30 40 40 TXK 79 67 84 71 / 70 30 40 20 ELD 79 64 83 68 / 100 40 40 10 TYR 78 68 83 72 / 30 10 30 10 GGG 78 67 84 72 / 30 20 40 10 LFK 80 67 85 72 / 30 20 30 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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