Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 2:08 AM   Moonset 1:04 PM

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FXUS64 KSHV 020842 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Busy morning, so will have to keep this brief. Current MCS over N and ECntrl TX continues to make Ewd progress, ahead of the well- defined shortwave evident on the water vapor imagery over WCntrl TX. The heaviest rain has fallen just SW of the CWA over Cntrl and upper SE TX, with two MCV's evident just SW of LFK and near ACT focusing the stronger convection and the heavier concentrations of rainfall. While an isolated strong or severe storm can't be ruled out this morning mainly along the instability axis of SE TX into WCntrl LA, the threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the greatest concern mainly along and S of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA before diminishing from W to E later this morning through the afternoon with the departure of this trough. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts are possible through the afternoon, before the convection becomes more isolated/widely scattered later in the day.

Attm, will allow the Flood Watch to expire at 00Z this evening, although there is some hint amongst the progs with additional convection development late this afternoon/evening along the Red River of N TX/Srn OK, as well as farther NNE along a weak sfc front that will shift SE into SE OK/portions of SW AR late tonight. There is reasonable agreement amongst the progs that a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the SW flow will develop in VC of the Red River Valley late this afternoon, ahead of amplifying trough that will lift NE into the Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest. This attendant forcing will help to amplify convection to our NW, before it slides SE into portions of the area after midnight. Given the uncertainties with the extent and associated QPF with this convection, do not have enough confidence yet to extend or expand the Flood Watch through tonight, and thus will allow the day shift to review the latest model data and extend it if needed in the afternoon forecast package.

Convection should become more numerous across much of the area Friday with this trough passage, before a lull in the convection occurs Friday night. Near to below normal temps due to the rain cooled air is expected through the short term.

15

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend, as the flow aloft remains SW beneath the Nrn Plains troughing, before being replaced with the ahead of the next upstream troughing over the Great Basin. The lead perturbation is progged to traverse the area Saturday, with diurnal heating contributing to scattered convection development during the day, with a second perturbation in wake of the first one again focusing at least scattered convection over the region. Should start to see a more definitive warming trend commencing Monday, although the influence of the ejecting Cntrl Rockies trough may still yield the potential for isolated to scattered convection over the area.
Drier air should begin to mix down as the deep lyr flow becomes more SW Tuesday, which should result in isolated convection (at best) and even hotter conditions as we move through the latter portions of the extended. In fact, there is enough consensus of near 90 degree temps over Deep E TX/N LA Tuesday, becoming more widespread Wednesday/Thursday. Resultant heat indices should range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees for mid and late week.

15

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 02/06Z TAFs, conditions continue to deteriorate, with area METARs indicating descending CIGs ahead of showers and storms entering east Texas airspace from the south and west. This area of rainfall has shown a history of being very electrified, thus carrying more TSRA than SHRA as it treks into the ArkLaTex through this forecast period. With the heaviest convection, deterioration to LIFR conditions will be possible. Southeasterly winds will continue throughout at speeds of 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts possible in the vicinity of stronger convection.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 70 81 68 / 100 50 70 10 MLU 80 68 79 65 / 80 50 80 20 DEQ 76 64 81 64 / 90 50 50 20 TXK 77 66 80 66 / 90 50 60 20 ELD 77 66 79 64 / 80 60 70 20 TYR 80 68 82 68 / 100 40 50 10 GGG 78 67 81 67 / 100 50 60 10 LFK 82 68 82 68 / 100 50 70 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167.

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