Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:27PM Friday June 22, 2018 9:44 PM CDT (02:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 1:36AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
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location: 32.35, -93.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 230055
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
755 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018

Update
This updated package will reflect the removal of severe weather
wording across portions of the four-state region, as the severe
weather threat has diminished. In addition, adjusted the pops to
exhibit only slight chance pops across locales near and including
monroe la through 03z, and removing the pop mention completely
thereafter. A decaying MCS is still poised to affect the northern
zones after midnight, and could be accompanied by brief gusty
winds and moderate rainfall. Otherwise, tweaked the ongoing
surface temperature curve to reflect current trends and
subsequently adjusted the relative humidity values and dewpoint
temperatures.

Prev discussion issued 621 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018
aviation...

isolated -shra -tsra have been intermittently developing south of
keld north of kmlu early this evening, and this trend will likely
persist for a few more hours. Have elected to insert a vcts at
both kmlu and keld to account for any near term development.

Otherwise, computer models hint at precipitation coming to an end
more or less by 23 02-03z whilst sct-bknVFR CIGS persist.

Similar to recent nights, CIGS are anticipated to deteriorate to
MVFR to possibly ifr criteria overnight at the majority if not all
of the terminals, before improving toVFR by mid-late Saturday
morning. Another round of -shra -tsra is poised to affect locales
north of ktxk and keld, with enough confidence of inserting a
vcsh at ktxk and keld for now. Will of course amend as necessary.

Slightly breezy south-southwest winds early this evening will
drop to below 10 kts a few hours after sunset. Wind speeds will
pick by Saturday mid-morning with sustained wind speeds of 10-15
kts 15-22 kts wind gusts by the afternoon hours. Breeziest
conditions will occur across ktyr and kggg.

Prev discussion... Issued 356 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018
short term... Tonight through Saturday night
as of 2035z, a weak frontal boundary was north of the interstate
30 corridor. An outflow boundary was noted on both the kshv 88d
and as a line of cumulus clouds on visible satellite imagery.

This outflow boundary was located from near mineola tx to near el
dorado ar. Storms have so far struggled to develop west of severe
thunderstorm watch #197. The CU field outside remains relatively
flat with only a couple of exceptions despite MLCAPE between 2000
and 3000 j kg. However, the latest mesoanalysis indicates much
better vertical shear profiles for supporting convection over
southern southeast arkansas and north central northeast louisiana.

A mention of severe weather will be kept for now, and severe
thunderstorm watch #197 will also be maintained. Much of the model
guidance suggests the convection will either rapidly dissipate
and or exit our area around 00z this evening, which seems to be
supported by recent trends. Therefore, no mention of severe
convection was kept in the forecast after that time.

There may be a lull in convective activity for several hours
tonight and into the early morning hours. However, a complex of
storms is expected to develop along the frontal boundary in
oklahoma. Northwest flow aloft should steer these storms toward
the area and may begin to affect portions of southeast oklahoma
and northeast texas just before sunrise. The best rain chances
should stay north of the interstate 30 corridor for Saturday as
storms redevelop ahead of the front and along another remnant
outflow boundary. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds keep warm and
humid conditions in place. The front should be farther north on
Saturday, so compressional warming should not be as much of a
factor, thus daytime temperatures should be close to or slightly
cooler than today. However, if winds veer a little more to the
southwest, temperatures may be warmer than currently forecast.

Cn
long term... Sunday through Friday
an embedded shortwave impulse across the middle red river valley of
srn ok SW ar will quickly exit ene and weaken Sunday morning, as
upper level ridging begins to expand W into the region from the se
conus, and amplify N across the lower ms valley. Did maintain
slight chance pops for SE ok the NRN sections of SW ar Sunday
morning before dropping pops for the afternoon as subsidence
increases beneath the ridge. This ridge should continue to expand
and amplify further Monday from much of the ark-la-tex E into the
tn valley SE conus, maintaining the above normal temps and dry
conditions areawide. As temps climb into the mid (and possibly
upper 90s in some areas) each day. Heat indices will near or
possibly exceed 105 degrees each day mainly over portions of
e tx N la, which may necessitate the need for a heat advisory for
portions of next week. However, later forecasts will be refined and
can be determined if one is needed at that time.

There remains some uncertainty in the latter portions of the
extended given the varying synoptic pattern depicted by the gfs
and ecmwf, with the ECMWF slowly retrograding the upper ridge
w over the SRN plains into the mid ms valley. Meanwhile, the gfs
weakens the ridge and nudges it S into the NE gulf, which allows
for a weak shear axis to drift S from the tn valley SW into NE la.

With the ECMWF also suggesting a weakness rounding the sern
periphery of the ridge Thursday over NE and cntrl la and deep
e tx, have inserted slight chance pops into the forecast
Thursday afternoon for the SRN and ERN zones, although any
isolated convection will diminish by sunset with the loss of
heating. Also maintained slight chance pops for these areas Friday
as well per the more consistent ecmwf, which retrogrades this
weakness aloft W into E tx. However, the primary story will
remain the heat, as these above normal temps will only continue
to dry out what topsoil moisture was partially restored from the
recent rains, and thus, further aggravate the drought conditions in
place.

15

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 78 94 77 94 10 10 10 10
mlu 77 93 76 94 20 10 0 10
deq 74 92 75 93 40 60 30 20
txk 77 93 76 93 30 30 20 10
eld 76 93 75 93 20 20 10 10
tyr 77 94 76 94 10 10 10 10
ggg 78 94 76 94 10 10 10 10
lfk 76 94 77 94 10 10 10 10

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

29 09 15


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi1.8 hrsSSW 810.00 miFair93°F71°F50%1007.2 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi49 minS 810.00 miFair89°F75°F63%1006.8 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi52 minS 810.00 miFair92°F73°F56%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from BAD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S5S8S8SW10SW9SW8SW9SW9SW10SW12SW12SW10SW11SW11
G17
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SW13SW9SW10SW8S8
1 day agoCalmCalmS6CalmCalmE3S3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW6SW4SW9SW6W9W7SW9NW8W9W8W9W5W4
2 days agoSE7E4E4CalmCalmE3SE4SE4E4SE5E4SE5SE6SE5SE7SE5E4SE5SE10SE9SE5E3E3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.