Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frierson, LA
May 17, 2024 6:36 AM CDT (11:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:57 PM Moonset 2:07 AM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 170823 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 323 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The synoptic scale pattern around 08z this morning is characterized by a split-flow pattern in the mid and upper levels, with an enlongated trough of low pressure in the southern stream extending from the Four Corners area eastward through the Southern Plains and towards the TN Valley, with a belt of stronger W/NW flow and lower amplitude troughing in the northern stream across the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Near the surface, several weak boundaries are noted, one along the TX and LA Coasts and extending east into the northern GOM, with another boundary across OK and into the Midwest, with high pressure closer to the East Coast.
Focusing in on the Four State Region, MRMS imagery depicts that precip has exited to the south and east of the area, where much of the severe storms and heavy rain moved across southern LA earlier last evening. Although isolated showers cannot be ruled out through daybreak, expect dry conditions to largely prevail, with the development of patchy fog.
The local area will remain within SW flow aloft through the day on Friday, with the main trough axis remaining to the west across Northern TX/Southern OK. Despite this, several shorter-wave vort maxes/perturbations will eject across the eastern flank of the larger scale trough, one moving across AR and the other across Southern LA. These shortwaves, combined with an unstable airmass and some residual boundaries, especially across Southern Louisiana will still prove sufficient for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage will be nothing near what was experienced on Thursday and the activity is largely expected to remain sub-severe and pose no great threat for heavy rainfall and flooding. For this reason, have opted to end the Flood Watch for the area. Conditions today are still expected to remain mostly cloudy, with some area experiencing some breaks in cloud cover.
Clouds should help temper high temps in the low to mid 80s.
The main axis of the larger scale upper level troughing will then become more progressive late Friday evening into Friday night.
This will maintain low-end chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast into early Saturday morning. Along with some residual shower activity early Saturday, conditions also appear more favorable for areas of fog as winds remain light and skies have the better ability to scatter some above a moist surface. The trough axis will then be slow to shift east of the forecast area on Saturday. With its continued presence over the area on Saturday, very isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, although most locations will experience and dry and overall pleasant day with high temperatures creeping into the mid to upper 80s as skies continue to scatter/clear.
Kovacik
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The larger scale upper level trough will finally begin to shift east of the region Saturday night into Sunday, becoming gradually replaced by an upper level ridge of high pressure. Fog will be likely yet again Sunday morning under calm winds and clear skies.
The ridge of high pressure will maintain its influence over the area through Monday and Tuesday, turning the main forecast concern towards the return to hot and muggy conditions. Under sunny skies on Monday, expect high temperatures to reach the low 90s. Tuesday is likely to be a few degrees warmer, despite some low level cloud cover in the morning, mainly across portions of W LA and E TX. Dewpoints will be creeping into the low 70s by this time, which will make for muggy conditions, however, the current forecast does not support any heat related headlines.
By mid-week, the ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with a trough moving across the Northern/Central Plains and into the Upper MS Valley and helping to deamplify the ridge of high pressure over the Southern US. As would be expected at this point in the forecast period, it remain a bit unclear as to what degree the ridge breaks down across the local area and how much/how close any forcing from the trough is realized, but in general guidance is supportive of a return of at least lower-end rain/storm chances. Temperatures would be expected to cool a few degrees if this pattern evolution were to verify, however, high temps are still expected to hover around 90 degrees.
Kovacik
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Terminal impacting SHRA/TSRA has departed east, with a mix of low mid and high clouds present to start the TAF package. Upper trough will continue to enter the airspace overnight and swing through during the afternoon and evening. This should help to break up some of the low clouds expected to remain in place through the mid to late morning and early afternoon hours. Given the influence of the upper trough, a return to near BKN, maybe some SCT by the evening, is expected. CAM's still advertise SHRA/TSRA development near KTXK late this afternoon. How this evolves will dictate what terminals see downstream impacts. There remains some uncertainty regarding any FG development through the morning. Low clouds may support some BR however, which could reduce VSBY temporarily before and shortly after sunrise.
RK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 68 87 68 / 30 30 20 0 MLU 82 66 84 66 / 40 40 30 0 DEQ 81 62 84 62 / 70 30 10 0 TXK 82 65 86 65 / 50 40 10 0 ELD 82 64 83 63 / 50 40 20 0 TYR 81 66 87 67 / 20 20 10 0 GGG 82 66 86 66 / 30 20 10 0 LFK 82 66 88 67 / 30 20 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ136-149>153- 165>167.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 323 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The synoptic scale pattern around 08z this morning is characterized by a split-flow pattern in the mid and upper levels, with an enlongated trough of low pressure in the southern stream extending from the Four Corners area eastward through the Southern Plains and towards the TN Valley, with a belt of stronger W/NW flow and lower amplitude troughing in the northern stream across the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Near the surface, several weak boundaries are noted, one along the TX and LA Coasts and extending east into the northern GOM, with another boundary across OK and into the Midwest, with high pressure closer to the East Coast.
Focusing in on the Four State Region, MRMS imagery depicts that precip has exited to the south and east of the area, where much of the severe storms and heavy rain moved across southern LA earlier last evening. Although isolated showers cannot be ruled out through daybreak, expect dry conditions to largely prevail, with the development of patchy fog.
The local area will remain within SW flow aloft through the day on Friday, with the main trough axis remaining to the west across Northern TX/Southern OK. Despite this, several shorter-wave vort maxes/perturbations will eject across the eastern flank of the larger scale trough, one moving across AR and the other across Southern LA. These shortwaves, combined with an unstable airmass and some residual boundaries, especially across Southern Louisiana will still prove sufficient for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage will be nothing near what was experienced on Thursday and the activity is largely expected to remain sub-severe and pose no great threat for heavy rainfall and flooding. For this reason, have opted to end the Flood Watch for the area. Conditions today are still expected to remain mostly cloudy, with some area experiencing some breaks in cloud cover.
Clouds should help temper high temps in the low to mid 80s.
The main axis of the larger scale upper level troughing will then become more progressive late Friday evening into Friday night.
This will maintain low-end chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast into early Saturday morning. Along with some residual shower activity early Saturday, conditions also appear more favorable for areas of fog as winds remain light and skies have the better ability to scatter some above a moist surface. The trough axis will then be slow to shift east of the forecast area on Saturday. With its continued presence over the area on Saturday, very isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, although most locations will experience and dry and overall pleasant day with high temperatures creeping into the mid to upper 80s as skies continue to scatter/clear.
Kovacik
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The larger scale upper level trough will finally begin to shift east of the region Saturday night into Sunday, becoming gradually replaced by an upper level ridge of high pressure. Fog will be likely yet again Sunday morning under calm winds and clear skies.
The ridge of high pressure will maintain its influence over the area through Monday and Tuesday, turning the main forecast concern towards the return to hot and muggy conditions. Under sunny skies on Monday, expect high temperatures to reach the low 90s. Tuesday is likely to be a few degrees warmer, despite some low level cloud cover in the morning, mainly across portions of W LA and E TX. Dewpoints will be creeping into the low 70s by this time, which will make for muggy conditions, however, the current forecast does not support any heat related headlines.
By mid-week, the ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with a trough moving across the Northern/Central Plains and into the Upper MS Valley and helping to deamplify the ridge of high pressure over the Southern US. As would be expected at this point in the forecast period, it remain a bit unclear as to what degree the ridge breaks down across the local area and how much/how close any forcing from the trough is realized, but in general guidance is supportive of a return of at least lower-end rain/storm chances. Temperatures would be expected to cool a few degrees if this pattern evolution were to verify, however, high temps are still expected to hover around 90 degrees.
Kovacik
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Terminal impacting SHRA/TSRA has departed east, with a mix of low mid and high clouds present to start the TAF package. Upper trough will continue to enter the airspace overnight and swing through during the afternoon and evening. This should help to break up some of the low clouds expected to remain in place through the mid to late morning and early afternoon hours. Given the influence of the upper trough, a return to near BKN, maybe some SCT by the evening, is expected. CAM's still advertise SHRA/TSRA development near KTXK late this afternoon. How this evolves will dictate what terminals see downstream impacts. There remains some uncertainty regarding any FG development through the morning. Low clouds may support some BR however, which could reduce VSBY temporarily before and shortly after sunrise.
RK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 68 87 68 / 30 30 20 0 MLU 82 66 84 66 / 40 40 30 0 DEQ 81 62 84 62 / 70 30 10 0 TXK 82 65 86 65 / 50 40 10 0 ELD 82 64 83 63 / 50 40 20 0 TYR 81 66 87 67 / 20 20 10 0 GGG 82 66 86 66 / 30 20 10 0 LFK 82 66 88 67 / 30 20 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ136-149>153- 165>167.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBAD BARKSDALE AFB,LA | 10 sm | 41 min | NE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.74 | |
| KSHV SHREVEPORT RGNL,LA | 13 sm | 40 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 29.74 | |
| KDTN SHREVEPORT DOWNTOWN,LA | 14 sm | 43 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.75 |
Shreveport, LA,
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