Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 11:42 PM   Moonset 8:27 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 280258 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Rest of tonight...

GOES East water vapor imagery & RAP analysis indicate stout upper cold core trough digging over the Four Corners, which is leading to widespread ascent, convection & severe weather across the Great Plains. Our region remains in the drier pattern, with center of mean ridging in the Carolinas & sfc subtropical high centered in the western Atlantic. 00Z sounding indicate PWs less than 1.3 inches this evening. The Gulf coast states remain in southerly return flow, but there is some indications that some dry thermodynamic profiles could advect in off the Gulf, keeping a quiet night in store. No rain is expected but some stratus is possible to build across the southern half of the area. 4-5mb gradient currently analyzed in LAPS analysis this evening.
Sustained winds around 10mph will persist, with some higher gusts at times. Seasonably warm lows, some 5-10 deg F above normal, in the low-mid 60s are expected. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Through Sunday:

In the near-term, dry air with analyzed PWATs generally below 1.3 inches this afternoon is the limiting factor for much in the way of shower or thunderstorm potential. Surface-based CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and decent low-level and mid-level lapse rates would otherwise support convection. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out this evening, but gusty gradient winds up to 30-35 mph will be the main concern this evening. Continued moisture advection and a better-timed shortwave trough passing through the ArkLaTex region tomorrow afternoon could support a few showers or thunderstorms during the daytime. Most of the activity should stay to our west through the daytime however, as the wave interacts with a dryline feature and generates organized severe weather threat for East Texas into western Louisiana. Gusty southerly winds will continue across the area, so will keep the Limited wind graphic in effect through the day tomorrow.

Sunday night through Saturday:

The severe thunderstorm activity to our west on Sunday will have the chance to make a run into at least northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas tomorrow night. Hi-res guidance runs show a mature squall line developing from the afternoon activity, and potentially bowing out as it reaches the western portions of our forecast area late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. A Slight Risk area for potential damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado have therefore been added for the Sunday night time frame. This line should continue eastward into the day, possibly stalling out or losing momentum before it fully clears our forecast area. A Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will continue into the day Monday, and the potential for heavy rain with this system will also necessitate a Limited Flash Flooding risk as well. Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics have been updated and issued accordingly.

A fairly progressive split flow regime sets up over the CONUS through the rest of next week, driving a few potential periods of showers and thunderstorms as shortwave troughs moving east and interact with spring-like humid and unstable air masses across the South. When not raining, afternoon high temperatures should push the upper 80s/lower 90s range. /NF/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Gusty southeasterly sfc winds will continue through early evening, mainly winding down by 28/02-04Z. In the wake, increased flow in the low-levels will support onset of low-level wind shear (LLWS) around 30-40kts at most TAF sites, mainly after 28/04-09Z.
This will remain psbl through around daybreak. MVFR stratus should develop at central & southern TAF sites (i.e. HKS, JAN, PIB, HBG & HEZ), with onset between 28/09-13Z & earlier onset at southern TAF sites. Daytime mixing will lead to VFR flight cats by midday & gusty southeasterly sfc winds, up to 20mph sustained & gusts up to 30mph, psbl through the end of the TAF period. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 65 83 67 78 / 0 20 10 80 Meridian 64 84 63 82 / 0 20 10 60 Vicksburg 66 86 68 76 / 0 20 20 90 Hattiesburg 65 83 67 81 / 0 20 10 60 Natchez 66 85 68 77 / 0 20 20 90 Greenville 66 84 67 74 / 0 20 40 100 Greenwood 65 84 67 75 / 0 20 20 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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