Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelahatchie, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:34PM Friday April 20, 2018 3:24 PM CDT (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelahatchie, MS
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location: 32.38, -89.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 202009
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
309 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018

Discussion
Tonight and Saturday afternoon...

high pressure at the surface, and ridging aloft, will overall
maintain quiet weather across the forecast area through the
period. Scattered high clouds will continue to stream east
southeast across the region through the overnight hours. Still,
another cool night will be on tap across the CWA as lows range
from the mid 40s to around 50.

The upper ridge axis will shift east of the region Saturday, as the
surface high likewise positions itself further northeast. A closed
low aloft digging southeast across the southern plains, will result
in a developing storm system west of the CWA Saturday afternoon.

While surface winds become more southeast in the process, they'll
become a bit more breezy during the day as the pressure gradient
across the region tightens.

Clouds will gradually increase across the forecast area during the
afternoon, as moisture continues to stream into the region ahead of
this next system. Despite this increase in clouds and moisture, the
forecast area currently looks to remain dry during the afternoon
period. Warmer conditions are expected, with highs topping out
in the low and middle 70s. 19
Saturday night through Friday...

the main focus during the period will be a storm system that is
progged to move through the arklamiss Saturday night through Sunday
and will bring the potential for flash flooding and severe weather.

A closed low and associated trough will be located over the southern
plains Saturday evening with ascent and moisture return
overspreading the region. A warm front is expected to lift north
overnight and will be located along or just north of the i-20
corridor by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will move into
the area along and ahead of the warm front from the west southwest.

Uncertainty still exists with regards to convective evolution as the
latest hi-res cam families offer varying solutions. Nonetheless, the
overall consensus is that there could be two rounds of
thunderstorms. The first round would be late night Saturday into
Sunday morning and tied to the warm front. The strongest shear,
especially at the low levels, will be in place during this first
round of convection, however instability will be lacking with only a
few hundred j kg of sbcape. Strong forcing and shear could be enough
to enhance the storm-scale dynamics and overcome the lack of
instability, so a "marginal" threat for severe weather will be
possible with this activity with the main threats being damaging
wind, a tornado or two, and isolated hail.

Once the initial warm frontal convection moves out, there's
potential that a second round of convection could develop near the
mississippi river during the late morning to afternoon hours on
Sunday. This convection would have access to the warm sector with
mid to upper 60s dewpoints and increased instability from diurnal
heating with SBCAPE values approaching 1000-1500 j kg. While more
instability will be available, the best low-level shear associated
with the low-level jet will have moved out of the area into alabama.

Sufficient deep layer shear of 40-50kts will still be sufficient for
organized convection with the main threat for damaging winds and
isolated hail. It is important to note, however, that a few members
of guidance keep enough 0-1km shear and helicity (20kts and 150-200
m2 s2 respectively) in place that a tornado or two cannot be
completely ruled out either. For both rounds of convection, the main
threat area would be roughly along and southeast of a line from
natchez to columbus. As previously mentioned, there is still a lot
of uncertainty as to exactly how the convection will evolve so the
reader is encouraged to check future forecasts for further updates.

Additionally, anomalous moisture (90th percentile pwats of 1.5-
1.75") combined with the strong forcing will result in locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Widespread 1-2" of rain is
expected with locally higher amounts possible. There are still
indications that a narrow swath of 2-4" could be realized, however
guidance and their respective ensemble members continue to struggle
with placement of this swath, so will continue to advertise the
ongoing limited risk for now.

The majority of the precip should exit the area and push into
alabama by Sunday evening, however a few isolated showers are
expected to linger across the area overnight as the center of the
closed low passes overhead. Northwest flow will quickly dominate the
pattern over the arklamiss through next week as a mean longwave
trough becomes oriented from the hudson bay area down the east
coast. Isolated to scattered northwest flow shower activity will be
possible with lingering moisture still in place through Tuesday. A
series of shortwave troughs embedded in the northwest flow will help
send a couple reinforcing cold fronts through the region Wednesday
and Friday with additional rounds of showers expected. Tw

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
vfr flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites through the next
24 hours. Ongoing northeast winds, will gradually become more
easterly late this afternoon and evening, and southeasterly on
Saturday as mainly high clouds continue to stream into the region
from the west. Winds will be sustained around 8 knots today, before
becoming light to calm overnight. Southeast winds on Saturday will
generally be sustained between 8-13 knots, with a few higher gusts
possible in the late morning and afternoon hours. 19

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 49 76 62 71 0 9 66 100
meridian 47 76 61 69 0 5 43 100
vicksburg 49 75 62 73 0 12 94 91
hattiesburg 50 76 63 73 0 9 43 98
natchez 49 76 63 73 0 12 90 94
greenville 48 73 61 70 0 12 100 83
greenwood 48 75 60 68 0 8 76 100

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Tw 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jackson, Jackson International Airport, MS12 mi31 minNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds67°F39°F36%1023.5 hPa
Jackson, Hawkins Field Airport, MS19 mi32 minVar 410.00 miFair66°F37°F34%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from JAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
G18
NW11
G20
N11N11NW10N8N9N8N9N8N8N7NE10NE7NE6NE6NE8E10
G15
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1 day agoSW10SW9SW8SW7SW6SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3NW10
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NW7NW8N11N9N9N13N13
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2 days agoS14
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S10S10S10S8S10S11S12S10S12S7S6S7S9S10SW9SW10SW15
G19
SW13
G18
SW12
G21
SW11SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.