Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 2:41 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 170254 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 954 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The severe storm threat and locally heavy rain threat has ended for the night. Regional radars showed and mcs moving east across southern Louisiana and the coastal waters. This activity will track south of our CWA so a large area of light to moderate rain will continue spreading northeast across the remainder of our CWA the remainder of the night. Thunderstorm activity within the large area of rain will remain confined to the southern half of the CWA Models suggest another subtle shortwave will help develop more vigorous convection toward morning over our western zones that will prolong rain chances over the eastern half of the area Saturday morning. /22/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: The southern jet continues to increase as the positively tilted through axis remains over the southern Plains. The trough axis will continue to send shortwave energy east across northern Texas and into our area. As the winds shift southwesterly low level-moisture will increase by lifting the warm front north this evening. Shortwave energy interacting with the increased low-level moisture will be the main source of forcing to increase showers and storms from west to east through Friday evening. With PWAT values increasing to near 2.0in and low level jet increasing we can expect heavy rainfall and likely flash flooding. As the upper level flow become divergent across central MS guidance has evolved to show the highest band of rain closer to the coast. Areas along and south of I- 20, 2-4in of rain is likely, especially in the Pine Belt, where locally higher amounts are possible, throughout the event. With the primary threat being the heavy rainfall and flash flooding with high rainfall totals through Saturday afternoon, the Flash Flood Watch will take effect from 6Z Friday-16Z Saturday. However the Watch has been trimmed down on the western edge from Franklin parish to Hinds county to reflect the highest probabilities to the east.
Convection will be stratiform in nature as remnant storm activity over north Texas will spread east/southeast into the more unstable air along the southern half of our CWA In addition, it's worth noting with the sfc low being W/NW of the area and convection being stratiform that there are indications in the CAMs that a wake low could form behind the the stratiform rain tonight. Potential wind gusts of 30-40 Kts will be possible along and south of I-20 around midnight if confidence increases. As the warm front lifts along the coast tonight storm propagations will make a shift as they move N/NE going into the early morning hours.
This latter development will be the main driver of the marginal risk for severe weather as redevelopment along the outflow of previous storms have an increased threat for damaging winds and tornadoes cant be ruled out. The Marginal Risk for tonight and Slight and Marginal Risk for tomorrow have been trimmed from the north and expanded east along the southern portions of the CWA through Saturday morning./KP/

Friday night through mid next week (Wednesday): Weekend (Saturday- Sunday): Cold core low that will have been bringing the heavy rain & severe potential across the region will moving across the ArkLaTex into the Gulf coast region by the weekend.
This will bring a gradual end to the convection, but some heavy rainfall totals will be ongoing at the start across the Pine Belt into the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors, where an additional 2-3 inches is possible. The ongoing Flood Watch remains in effect, but has been oriented more southwest to northeast to account for this activity. "Elevated" in HWO graphics has been adjusted accordingly. Some severe activity may be ongoing but probably finished into late Saturday evening. Upper low will swing into the Appalachians, with ridging at the sfc & aloft building in from west-east. This will drive in drier air late Saturday aftn & persisting through the weekend. Expect moderation of highs in the low-mid 80s Saturday & mid-upper 80s Sunday, with increasing potential heat & humidity late weekend.

Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level & sfc ridge builds in, increased warm advection will bring up low-level temps into the upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s to low 70s northwest of the Natchez Trace. Heat & humidity will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into mid-upper 90s. Low-level return flow won't pick back up until by midday Tuesday through midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around mid-late week. /DC/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Local radars showed a large area of RA with a few TSRA spreading into the cntrl portions of the area from the west. This activity will continue to spread across the area and bring a reduction in flying conditions. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop and prevail into Fri aftn before improving toward the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 65 81 67 82 / 90 80 50 50 Meridian 65 81 66 83 / 80 90 60 70 Vicksburg 65 82 67 84 / 100 60 40 30 Hattiesburg 67 85 68 84 / 90 80 60 70 Natchez 64 81 67 84 / 100 60 50 30 Greenville 69 82 68 82 / 80 50 50 30 Greenwood 67 80 67 82 / 70 70 50 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning for MSZ049>052-054>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.

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