Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:56 PM   Moonset 3:34 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 201038 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 538 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: An exiting shortwave was producing a few elevated showers and thunderstorms early this morning, generally north of I-20 and east of I-35. This is the same vicinity as a shallow outflow boundary from earlier convection that occurred in Oklahoma. The only threat associated with this activity will be from an isolated lightning strike. All precipitation will exit the region to the east an hour or two after sunrise, leaving a mostly sunny, breezy, hot, and humid start to the work week.

The current forecast is in good shape and the forecast highlights below are still valid.

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Previous Discussion: /Overnight Through Monday Night/

Hot, breezy, and humid weather will continue to start the week with a mid level ridge in place and strong low level southerly flow. A 40 knot low level jet will send stratus northward overnight, reaching portions of Central Texas before sunrise.
These low clouds will not last long once the sun comes up and boundary layer mixing begins.

After a warm and breezy night with lows mainly in the 70s, temperatures Monday will steadily warm into the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Dew points will mix out a bit, but afternoon heat index values will still exceed the actual temperature by a few degrees.
The only thing that will help with the afternoon heat will be a very breezy south wind between 10 and 20 mph with occasional gusts as high as 30 mph. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset, but it will still be a bit breezy, warm, and humid Monday night with lows in the lower and middle 70s.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 316 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ Update: The long term forecast, as detailed below, is still valid and no major changes are needed at this time. We are still thinking the best storm chances this week will accompany a cold front in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with a potential for severe storms and heavy rain.

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Previous Discussion: /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid- level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety this upcoming weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

A few showers and storms currently moving east across the northern portions of D10 airspace will exit into East Texas an hour or two after sunrise. The limited coverage of this activity should cause little interruption to air traffic.

Stratus has developed as expected across South Texas and the Hill Country early this morning. Some brief low end MVFR to IFR ceilings will reach Waco around 12Z but will scatter out by the middle of the morning. These ceilings should not make it into the D10 airspace but a few remnant clouds could survive the journey northward. Otherwise, we will see few to scattered mid-level clouds early this morning followed by some passing cirrus later today and tonight. Stratus intrusion will should follow a similar timing Tuesday morning.

A breezy south wind will prevail through Tuesday morning generally between 12 and 17 knots along with some gusts near 30 knots.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 74 90 75 88 / 0 0 5 10 40 Waco 88 73 89 75 88 / 0 0 0 5 20 Paris 88 69 87 74 86 / 10 0 0 5 50 Denton 90 72 90 72 86 / 5 0 5 10 40 McKinney 89 72 88 74 86 / 10 0 5 10 40 Dallas 91 74 90 76 90 / 0 0 5 5 30 Terrell 87 71 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 5 30 Corsicana 89 73 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 20 Temple 88 72 89 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 92 72 91 73 87 / 5 0 10 10 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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