Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:17PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 7:57 AM CDT (12:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:07PMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 261141 aaa
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
641 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation
12 utc TAF cycle
concerns---shra potential and timing of wind shifts at metroplex
taf sites. Intermittent MVFR cig potential at waco with subtle
wind shift.

For the metroplex TAF sites---showers streamed northward overnight
and were efficient at producing some outflow which resulted in a
westerly wind shift for afw and ftw. Winds at these TAF sites will
be out of the northeast before becoming more southeasterly by
mid-morning. All other TAF sites should remain in south flow
through the early evening hours. Previously it appeared that MVFR
stratus would invade from the south. However, given the weakening
surface pressure field in response to the slow moving frontal
boundary, strong winds necessary for stratus transport appears
unlikely and i've removed MVFR stratus from the forecast for this
morning. There will be a potential for some showers, mainly west
of the TAF sites today. I'll continue with a mention of vcsh at
all metroplex tafs with lower confidence in occurrence farther
east (dal and gky). Impacts to western arrivals departures are
possible due to the convection out across the big country.

Overall, the prospects for lighting INVOF metroplex tafs appear
low given that forecast profiles support mostly tropical like
showers. There could be some reduced visibility should showers
settle in over any of the terminals, but confidence is too low to
include this mention in the tafs at this time.

Otherwise, southerly winds will shift to the east and eventually
north-northeast with time as the aforementioned cold front slices
southward through the region and north flow appears probable
around 0300 utc. There could be some post-frontal shower
activity, especially at afw and ftw and i've continued a mention
of vcsh between 0300 and 0600 utc. In the d fw extended taf,
there's a low chance for some post-frontal MVFR stratus, but
overall signals in model guidance are not high enough to warrant
inclusion at this time.

For the waco TAF site---i've gone with a more optimistic TAF this
morning. At this time, it appears that waco may be on the periphery
of some of the poorer flying conditions with MVFR and ifr more
probable to the west. I'll maintain a chance for intermittent MVFR
stratus around fl025 starting mid-morning and into the noontime
hour. If the configuration of stratus remains unchanged over the
next several hours, it's even possible that the mention of MVFR
may be removed all together. The potential for vcsh isn't quite as
high here at waco given that a majority of the stronger forcing
appears to be to the northwest, but we'll need to monitor this
threat through the day. It appears that the frontal boundary will
become quite diffuse as it approaches the waco TAF site and i've
only shown a very subtle wind shift to the northeast as a result
late this evening and into the overnight hours.

24-bain

Short term issued 218 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
today and tonight
the main concern in the short term will be the placement of
highest rain and thunder chances. Widespread severe weather
appears unlikely given the modest lapse rates and limited deep
layer shear. Otherwise, it should feel slightly cooler for some
with widespread cloud cover and increasingly east and north winds.

For today---ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms will
continue this morning as isentropic ascent along the 300k and 305k
theta surfaces continues for areas west of the i-35 corridor.

These pockets of concentrated precipitation should diminish
through mid-morning and it's possible that for a short window of
time, much of the area remains mostly rain-free. Otherwise, patchy
fog across southeastern zones will gradually dissipate with
cloudy to partly sunny skies across north and central tx.

Additional precipitation is expected to blossom later this
afternoon, especially for areas near and west of the hwy 281
corridor. This precipitation will be in response to increasing
isentropic lift as well as the encroaching cold front currently
across the tx rolling plains.

For tonight---the cold front will continue to slide southward
through central tx through Wednesday morning. Ascent along and
behind the front will persist and will result in another good
rain shield, mainly near and west of the hwy 281 corridor. As a
result, i've kept highest pops out west with lower rain chances
farther east.

24-bain

Long term issued 218 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
Wednesday through next Monday
at the start of Wednesday, a cold front will be draped across
north texas with the large upper trough still over the western
u.S. Persistent low level isentropic ascent will continue through
much of the day resulting in a good coverage of showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly west of i-35. Areas east of i-35 will be
under more of an influence from upper ridging and increasing
subsidence through the day. As we go through the day Wednesday
into Thursday, the large upper trough over the western u.S. Will
finally begin to slowly deamplify and eject eastward. As it does,
ridging will strengthen over north texas leaving only the frontal
boundary as a primary focus for precipitation development. Rain
chances will generally be confined to areas west of i-35 Wednesday
night through Thursday night before diminishing areawide on
Friday. With the main trough moving through the plains on Friday,
a secondary push of cooler and noticeably drier air will slide
into north texas late Friday evening. This should effectively end
precipitation chances for north texas with the forecast remaining
dry into early next week.

Given weak mid level lapse rates and only weak instability during
peak heating, the overall severe weather threat Wednesday through
Friday looks minimal and we'll only mention isolated thunderstorms
in the forecast with showers prevailing. The bulk of the synoptic
forcing will remain over west texas through Thursday, so even with
the cold front draped across the cwa, highest rain chances
Wednesday and Thursday will be west of i-35. Some locally heavy
rainfall amounts may occur across our far western counties with
areas along and east of i-35 likely receiving less than an inch of
rain through the week.

Temperatures will be warm across the eastern half of the region on
Wednesday but as the cold front slides farther south, temperatures
will continue to cool. Highs will be at or below seasonal normals
Thursday through the weekend.

Dunn

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 87 73 86 68 82 30 30 30 20 20
waco 89 72 88 70 86 40 20 20 30 20
paris 87 70 87 68 82 10 10 20 20 20
denton 86 70 83 65 79 50 30 30 20 20
mckinney 87 71 86 67 80 30 30 20 20 20
dallas 89 74 87 70 82 30 30 20 20 20
terrell 88 71 90 69 85 20 10 20 20 20
corsicana 89 71 89 71 87 20 10 20 20 20
temple 87 71 86 70 85 40 30 30 30 20
mineral wells 83 68 80 63 77 60 60 50 40 40

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

24 91


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair72°F66°F83%1012.9 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi64 minESE 310.00 miFair74°F66°F79%1012.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi64 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1012 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair73°F65°F80%1013.2 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi70 minESE 410.00 miClear77°F68°F74%1013.2 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi64 minSE 410.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE6SE7S9SE10
G16
SE12
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SE9SE9SE11
G14
SE9SE9SE4E3CalmSE5SE4SE4SE4SE3SE3SE4CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoSE4S4SE7SE8S8SE8SE7SE7S7E10E7E5SE5SE7SE5SE3SE4E5CalmSE4CalmSE3CalmE4
2 days agoSE4S3SE5S6SE9E8E9
G15
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SE9S6E4E4SE3E4CalmSE3S3SE3SE3S3SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.