Thursday, February21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:52 PM CST (22:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 212157
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
357 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Short term
as today's disturbance moves off to the northeast, the focus will
shift to a deepening upper level low pressure system over the
southwestern conus. A warm air advection regime ahead of the
system will create overrunning conditions this evening and
overnight tonight, due to the presence of a stationary surface
boundary situated along the gulf coast. This will eventually
result in the development of drizzle and fog as we get into the
overnight hours due to top-down moistening processes. Visibility
reductions should remain fairly minor most of the night, but
there could be a few areas that fall below one mile as we
approach daybreak Friday and temperature dewpoint spreads
approach zero. Widely scattered showers will also remain a
possibility, but will be limited to areas mainly east of i-35
where deeper moisture resides. Increasing dewpoints and
thickening cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly warmer
than last nights readings with lows remaining in the 40s area-


Long term
Friday through Thursday
Friday will start out cool and cloudy with areas of fog and
drizzle as low level warm moist advection continues above a
shallow cold airmass. Pops will be fairly high across the region
through the day, but rainfall amounts will generally be light with
best moisture located east of i-35. Most locations should pick up
a few hundredths of an inch of rain through the day with highs
topping out in the low to mid 50s. There will be a low threat for
some thunderstorms tomorrow mainly east of i-35 where lapse rates
will be sufficiently steep, but otherwise showers should prevail.

All eyes will be on the upstream upper low which will be digging
through southern arizona and new mexico through the day Friday.

This system will eject northeast into the plains Friday night and
may take on a negative tilt as it moves across the tx panhandle.

As it continues eastward, a pacific front dryline will race
through the region during the morning hours on Saturday. There
will be a threat for showers and thunderstorms overnight Friday
night into Saturday morning, although the potential for severe
weather and widespread rainfall across north texas appears to have
diminished some despite strong dynamic forcing. The main
inhibiting factor to a more significant severe setup will be the
persistent cool airmass that remains in place at the surface which
should all but completely eliminate the threat for surface based
storms at least through Friday night. Mid level lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the upper low, and strong dynamic
forcing for ascent will overspread the area, however, there will
be a fairly stout capping inversion in place, even to elevated
parcels above the colder surface air. This should help hold off
the development of more vigorous convection until early Saturday
morning. As the front gets closer around sunrise, we should see an
erosion of the capping inversion and widespread development of
showers and a few thunderstorms, although best instability will
quickly race off to the east. We'll maintain high pops mainly east
of i-35 through early Saturday morning. The strongest storms could
produce some quarter size hail before racing off to the east.

The back side of this system will feature quick drying and strong
westerly winds. Winds on Saturday afternoon may gust close to 50
mph in our far northwest counties and 40 mph elsewhere. A wind
advisory will be required for much of the area Saturday. Despite
the strong westerly winds, ample fine fuel moisture and cool
temperatures should inhibit what would otherwise be a dangerous
fire weather day.

Most of next week should be dry with a weak disturbance passing
through the area on Tuesday bringing low rain chances to the
southeast counties. Another weak disturbance may bring additional
low rain chances to the region on next Thursday.


Aviation issued 1200 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
18z tafs
precipitation continues to shift slowly north and east of the
area along with the disturbance responsible for it. The
possibility of additional thunderstorms has dropped considerably
as the stronger forcing for ascent appears to have already exited
to the northeast. Vcts will remain in the dfw metroplex tafs for
another hour, followed by vcsh until 22 00z.

Meanwhile, an upper level low continues to deepen across the
desert southwest while a stationary front remains parked along the
gulf coast. The resulting pattern will lead to strengthening
isentropic lift and deteriorating flight conditions area-wide
tonight through Friday. MVFR ceilings will arrive early this
evening with conditions likely dropping to ifr prior to midnight
local tonight. Visibility reductions will become possible by
sunrise Friday as areas of drizzle and fog develop. Little
improvement can be expected during the day Friday, with ifr
conditions continuing through the end of the forecast period.

A round of showers and storms will sweep through Friday night,
with a return toVFR conditions Saturday. On a side note: strong
west winds on Saturday may result in cross-wind issues and
reduced arrival rates at dfw (thanks to the cwsu for


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 45 54 45 65 38 30 50 70 40 0
waco 47 56 48 67 38 30 60 60 40 0
paris 43 52 49 65 36 50 60 70 100 0
denton 44 52 44 65 36 30 40 70 40 0
mckinney 45 53 43 65 36 40 50 70 60 0
dallas 47 55 51 67 38 40 50 70 50 0
terrell 46 54 49 65 37 40 60 70 70 0
corsicana 47 57 51 65 38 40 60 70 70 0
temple 48 58 46 68 39 30 50 60 40 0
mineral wells 44 55 42 66 33 20 30 60 20 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi62 minENE 1710.00 miOvercast50°F39°F67%1014.9 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi59 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F37°F61%1015.8 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi59 minE 1210.00 miOvercast52°F39°F61%1015 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi57 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F38°F64%1014.9 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi65 minE 8 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F37°F62%1015.2 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi59 minE 1010.00 miOvercast50°F37°F61%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE9SE5SE4E4SE4CalmCalmSE3E5SE5SE4E5E6E6NE4S4N5NE4CalmE10
1 day agoN6N8N7N3N5N5NW5NW3NW3NW4W7W10NW12NW9W10W5W4CalmSW6S6SW8SW5S6SE5
2 days agoN9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.