Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM   Moonset 5:54 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 062304 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 604 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: /Tonight through Tuesday/

A few light showers have developed across the region late this afternoon. These showers are forming underneath a cap of warm air aloft and will likely not be able to tap into the unstable air above the cap. There is still a small chance that the cap could break, mainly across the north/northwest where clouds have scattered out this afternoon. If any storms do develop, they will quickly intensify.

The current forecast as detailed below is in good shape so no major changes are needed at this time.

79

Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday afternoon/

An active start of the week for portions of the southern Plain especially across Oklahoma and Kansas where there is a moderate and high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The threat for our area remains highly conditional, given the fact that we're still fairly capped (based on the latest ACARs soundings). With a highly buoyant environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), IF storms are able to develop they will likely become severe with very large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
While areas generally north of I-20 (especially near the Red River) have the greatest threat for severe storms, we can't rule out the potential for a strong to marginally severe storm farther south. We still think this is a low confidence/low coverage, but potentially high impact event if storms develop. Most of the activity should stay north of our area this evening and tonight as the strong ascent associated with the cold front moves eastward/southward, but the window to pay attention for our area will be roughly between 3-10 pm. The best advice is to stay weather aware and make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts in case a warning is issued.

The cold front should continue to push eastward overnight into Tuesday but it will lose its push over our region as it gets detached from the main upper level system. The main impact for us will be a brief wind shift to the north Tuesday morning, but winds will likely return to the south by the afternoon. Otherwise, no additional rain is expected with clearing skies behind the front into the afternoon. With the lack of any cool air advection and clearing skies, afternoon highs on Tuesday will be warm and likely reach the mid to upper 80s.

Sanchez

LONG TERM
/Issued 244 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/ /Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

Temperatures well above normal will continue on Wednesday as an upper-level ridge settles in across the Southern Plains. Further supporting this mid-week warmth will be our southwesterly winds, which will aid in allowing afternoon highs on Wednesday to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across North and Central Texas.
With dew points hanging out in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will quickly approach the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across Central Texas may even reach the 100 degree heat index mark.
While this sort of heat is not necessarily unprecedented for this time of year, it will be important to keep an eye on friends and loved ones who may be a bit more vulnerable to heat illness.

The other major talking point for this forecast involves the continued potential for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Our best potential will be through the afternoon and evening hours on both Wednesday and Thursday. Much of this activity will fire off along and east of the I-35 corridor, across both North and Central Texas. The environment will remain supportive of severe weather, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and plenty of atmospheric instability to work with.
Sufficient shear for storm organization will also exist, leading to our main threats including large hail and damaging winds. On top of this, antecedent conditions remain conducive for additional flooding concerns and will need to be closely monitored across portions of Central Texas. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact spatial coverage of thunderstorms as we are still a few days out. Details will continue to be refined over the next several days regarding this potential for severe weather through the middle of the week, so continue to check back for updates to the forecast as we move into the week ahead.

Much cooler and drier weather will return to the entire forecast area as a cold front sweeps through North and Central Texas. Highs through the weekend will cool into the mid to upper 70s through the afternoon, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. This will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the weekend. As an aside, we are approaching that time of year where the days with cool, continental air are numbered.
While it's hard to say if this will be our last substantial cold front of the season, the odds for additional cold fronts as we move into the year are decreasing. Enjoy it while you can!

Reeves

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Other than some brief high end MVFR ceilings early this evening, cloud bases will remain roughly between 3500 and 6000 ft. MVFR ceilings will quickly return overnight with the development of a 40+ knot low level jet. The strength of the jet will likely keep ceilings above 1000 ft, but Waco could briefly fall to IFR towards sunrise. Unlike the past several mornings, stratus will quickly scatter out after sunrise Tuesday once drier air arrives behind a cold front.

A breezy south wind will prevail overnight between 13 and 20 knots along with some gusts near 30 knots. Wind speeds will fall just ahead of the front while turning to the southwest around sunrise and west/northwest by mid morning. Post-frontal wind speeds should stay around or just below 12 knots.

It appears a cap of warm air aloft will prevent thunderstorm formation at any of our TAF sites tonight but severe storms are already ongoing well north of the Red River in Oklahoma.

79


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 87 72 89 65 / 10 0 0 20 20 Waco 72 87 71 88 68 / 10 5 0 20 10 Paris 71 85 69 85 61 / 20 5 5 40 40 Denton 67 85 69 88 60 / 10 0 0 20 20 McKinney 71 87 70 87 63 / 20 0 5 20 30 Dallas 72 88 72 90 66 / 10 0 0 20 20 Terrell 73 86 70 86 64 / 10 0 5 30 30 Corsicana 73 86 73 88 69 / 10 0 0 20 20 Temple 71 87 71 89 69 / 10 5 0 10 5 Mineral Wells 63 86 69 89 61 / 5 0 0 10 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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