Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brawley, CA
March 18, 2024 10:00 PM PDT (05:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:46 AM Sunset 6:53 PM Moonrise 12:58 PM Moonset 3:15 AM |
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 190019 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 519 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues with showers and thunderstorms expected through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening across south-central Arizona. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms decreases for Tuesday before the responsible weather system finally exits the region Wednesday. Ridging will build over the Intermountain West by the end of the week which will result in dry and tranquil conditions along with continued temperature increases towards well-above normal levels. Cooler unsettled weather then looks to return this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
An active afternoon is underway as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of central Arizona with strong winds, hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning possible through the afternoon. The threat for strong and perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening.
The unsettled weather pattern continues as a Rex Block remains in place over the western CONUS with a cutoff upper-level low situated over the Southwest. Currently this afternoon, satellite WV imagery shows this upper low continuing to retrograde westward with the low center now situated over Riverside County. As a result, an influx of better moisture has creeped into south-central Arizona with PWAT values increasing upwards of 0.6-0.7" through the afternoon. Instability across the region continues to increase this afternoon with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km across Maricopa, Pinal, and Gila Counties. Combined with forced ascent associated with the aforementioned upper low, thunderstorms will continue to blossom across parts of south- central Arizona through the afternoon. The latest 12Z HRRR keeps the bulk of this thunderstorm activity east of Phoenix through the afternoon with chances decreasing westward over the desert floor.
However with the potential for strong outflows pushing across the valley floor this afternoon into the early evening, we could conceivably see some additional development make it into the Valley. As mentioned, strong outflows will be possible today with model soundings showing DCAPE values upwards of 700-900 J/kg this afternoon. HRRR shows probabilities of exceeding 35 mph climbing upwards of 50-70% with the greatest chances residing across eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties and portions of southern Gila County. Could see an isolated severe thunderstorm gust, which the HRRR has been aggressive in showing in some of its runs.
Additionally, the better lapse rates and instability could lead to some larger hail compared to the small pea-sized hail that's been more common in some of our recent events. In terms of dust, some areas of blowing dust generated by strong outflows will be possible, though less favorable given the expected orientation of outflow boundaries. Rainfall amounts outside of thunderstorms will generally remain light, mostly under 0.25" with locally heavy amounts for areas that end up under a thunderstorm.
The upper low will shift eastward back over Arizona Tuesday while gradually weakening in the process. Instability will not be as high as today with SBCAPE values around 100-300 J/kg closer to the cold core. CAMs support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon around the Kofas and over high terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. The Rex Block pattern finally breaks down heading into Wednesday and the upper low shifts east into New Mexico. This will be replaced with flat ridging over the Desert Southwest giving us drier, warmer weather for the latter half of this week. Temperatures by Thursday warm up into the low to mid 80s across the south-central Arizona lower deserts and mid to upper 80s across southeast California and southwest Arizona. Some areas will flirt with their first 90 degree temperature of the year on Thursday with NBM probabilities of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees climbing upwards of 50-70% across the Imperial Valley. Global ensembles then show troughing returning to the western CONUS this weekend into early next week. Thus, we will be looking at the return of some cooler unsettled weather once again.
AVIATION
Updated at 0015Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through eastern and northern portions of the Phoenix Metro. These storms are anticipated to fall apart and exit the Phoenix Metro between 02-03Z. In the meantime, theses storms, along with their outflows, are causing easterly gusts around 20-25 kt with occasional gusts of 20-30 kt. Once these storms fall apart and exit the Metro, the winds will also start to calm, although some gusts to around 15-20 kt may hang on through 04-05Z, mainly for the northern terminals (KDVT & KSDL). Winds are expected to go light, aob 5 kt, and variable for the overnight hours, however they may predominantly be out of the east. By mid-morning the winds will become easterly before doing their typical diurnal switch to the westerly tomorrow afternoon. SCT-OVC cloud bases are currently around 6-8 kft with these showers and storms. Once they fall apart and exit the Metro, clouds will scatter out and start to lift with FEW-SCT high clouds expected for the overnight hours.
Then FEW clouds with bases aoa 7-9 kft are expected for tomorrow afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Light and variable winds at KBLH will become northwesterly late this evening and then transition to northeasterly late tomorrow morning. At KIPL, current light westerly winds will become northwesterly late tomorrow morning.
Wind speeds at both terminals will be aob 5 kt through the TAF period. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period. With FEW CU clouds developing tomorrow afternoon with bases aoa 8 kft.
FIRE WEATHER
Low pressure will continue to promote rain chances over the next few days, especially across higher elevation locations. Outside of any rainfall activity, breezy conditions are expected across the the far eastern districts with max gusts approaching 30-35 mph at times. Elsewhere, winds should generally be light, with occasional afternoon breeziness. High pressure will then build over the region by the middle of the week resulting in drier and more tranquil conditions. MinRHs for the front half of the week should remain above 20-25% across the region before moisture levels begin to drop off once the aforementioned high pressure sets in.
Temperatures will hover around normal for the next few days before a quick warm-up takes place during the latter portion of the week
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 519 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues with showers and thunderstorms expected through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening across south-central Arizona. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms decreases for Tuesday before the responsible weather system finally exits the region Wednesday. Ridging will build over the Intermountain West by the end of the week which will result in dry and tranquil conditions along with continued temperature increases towards well-above normal levels. Cooler unsettled weather then looks to return this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
An active afternoon is underway as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of central Arizona with strong winds, hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning possible through the afternoon. The threat for strong and perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening.
The unsettled weather pattern continues as a Rex Block remains in place over the western CONUS with a cutoff upper-level low situated over the Southwest. Currently this afternoon, satellite WV imagery shows this upper low continuing to retrograde westward with the low center now situated over Riverside County. As a result, an influx of better moisture has creeped into south-central Arizona with PWAT values increasing upwards of 0.6-0.7" through the afternoon. Instability across the region continues to increase this afternoon with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km across Maricopa, Pinal, and Gila Counties. Combined with forced ascent associated with the aforementioned upper low, thunderstorms will continue to blossom across parts of south- central Arizona through the afternoon. The latest 12Z HRRR keeps the bulk of this thunderstorm activity east of Phoenix through the afternoon with chances decreasing westward over the desert floor.
However with the potential for strong outflows pushing across the valley floor this afternoon into the early evening, we could conceivably see some additional development make it into the Valley. As mentioned, strong outflows will be possible today with model soundings showing DCAPE values upwards of 700-900 J/kg this afternoon. HRRR shows probabilities of exceeding 35 mph climbing upwards of 50-70% with the greatest chances residing across eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties and portions of southern Gila County. Could see an isolated severe thunderstorm gust, which the HRRR has been aggressive in showing in some of its runs.
Additionally, the better lapse rates and instability could lead to some larger hail compared to the small pea-sized hail that's been more common in some of our recent events. In terms of dust, some areas of blowing dust generated by strong outflows will be possible, though less favorable given the expected orientation of outflow boundaries. Rainfall amounts outside of thunderstorms will generally remain light, mostly under 0.25" with locally heavy amounts for areas that end up under a thunderstorm.
The upper low will shift eastward back over Arizona Tuesday while gradually weakening in the process. Instability will not be as high as today with SBCAPE values around 100-300 J/kg closer to the cold core. CAMs support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon around the Kofas and over high terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. The Rex Block pattern finally breaks down heading into Wednesday and the upper low shifts east into New Mexico. This will be replaced with flat ridging over the Desert Southwest giving us drier, warmer weather for the latter half of this week. Temperatures by Thursday warm up into the low to mid 80s across the south-central Arizona lower deserts and mid to upper 80s across southeast California and southwest Arizona. Some areas will flirt with their first 90 degree temperature of the year on Thursday with NBM probabilities of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees climbing upwards of 50-70% across the Imperial Valley. Global ensembles then show troughing returning to the western CONUS this weekend into early next week. Thus, we will be looking at the return of some cooler unsettled weather once again.
AVIATION
Updated at 0015Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through eastern and northern portions of the Phoenix Metro. These storms are anticipated to fall apart and exit the Phoenix Metro between 02-03Z. In the meantime, theses storms, along with their outflows, are causing easterly gusts around 20-25 kt with occasional gusts of 20-30 kt. Once these storms fall apart and exit the Metro, the winds will also start to calm, although some gusts to around 15-20 kt may hang on through 04-05Z, mainly for the northern terminals (KDVT & KSDL). Winds are expected to go light, aob 5 kt, and variable for the overnight hours, however they may predominantly be out of the east. By mid-morning the winds will become easterly before doing their typical diurnal switch to the westerly tomorrow afternoon. SCT-OVC cloud bases are currently around 6-8 kft with these showers and storms. Once they fall apart and exit the Metro, clouds will scatter out and start to lift with FEW-SCT high clouds expected for the overnight hours.
Then FEW clouds with bases aoa 7-9 kft are expected for tomorrow afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Light and variable winds at KBLH will become northwesterly late this evening and then transition to northeasterly late tomorrow morning. At KIPL, current light westerly winds will become northwesterly late tomorrow morning.
Wind speeds at both terminals will be aob 5 kt through the TAF period. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period. With FEW CU clouds developing tomorrow afternoon with bases aoa 8 kft.
FIRE WEATHER
Low pressure will continue to promote rain chances over the next few days, especially across higher elevation locations. Outside of any rainfall activity, breezy conditions are expected across the the far eastern districts with max gusts approaching 30-35 mph at times. Elsewhere, winds should generally be light, with occasional afternoon breeziness. High pressure will then build over the region by the middle of the week resulting in drier and more tranquil conditions. MinRHs for the front half of the week should remain above 20-25% across the region before moisture levels begin to drop off once the aforementioned high pressure sets in.
Temperatures will hover around normal for the next few days before a quick warm-up takes place during the latter portion of the week
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KIPL IMPERIAL COUNTY,CA | 11 sm | 67 min | W 06 | Clear | 61°F | 41°F | 48% | 29.99 | ||
KNJK EL CENTRO NAF (VRACIU FLD),CA | 13 sm | 64 min | W 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 61°F | 41°F | 48% | 30.01 |
Tide / Current for National City, San Diego Bay, California
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National City
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:20 AM PDT 5.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:13 PM PDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:14 PM PDT 4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:20 AM PDT 5.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:13 PM PDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:14 PM PDT 4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
National City, San Diego Bay, California, Tide feet
12 am |
3.1 |
1 am |
3.4 |
2 am |
3.8 |
3 am |
4.3 |
4 am |
4.8 |
5 am |
5 |
6 am |
5 |
7 am |
4.6 |
8 am |
3.8 |
9 am |
2.9 |
10 am |
1.8 |
11 am |
0.8 |
12 pm |
0.1 |
1 pm |
-0.2 |
2 pm |
-0.1 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
1.3 |
5 pm |
2.3 |
6 pm |
3.2 |
7 pm |
3.8 |
8 pm |
4.1 |
9 pm |
4 |
10 pm |
3.6 |
11 pm |
3.2 |
San Diego
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:16 AM PDT 4.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM PDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:05 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:59 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:10 PM PDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:16 AM PDT 4.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM PDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:05 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:59 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:10 PM PDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
San Diego, California, Tide feet
12 am |
3.2 |
1 am |
3.4 |
2 am |
3.8 |
3 am |
4.2 |
4 am |
4.6 |
5 am |
4.8 |
6 am |
4.8 |
7 am |
4.3 |
8 am |
3.6 |
9 am |
2.6 |
10 am |
1.6 |
11 am |
0.7 |
12 pm |
0 |
1 pm |
-0.2 |
2 pm |
-0 |
3 pm |
0.6 |
4 pm |
1.4 |
5 pm |
2.3 |
6 pm |
3.1 |
7 pm |
3.6 |
8 pm |
3.9 |
9 pm |
3.8 |
10 pm |
3.5 |
11 pm |
3.1 |
Yuma, AZ,
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