Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brawley, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 5:36PM Friday February 23, 2018 12:35 PM PST (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:22PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brawley, CA
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location: 32.98, -115.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 231926
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
1226 pm mst Fri feb 23 2018

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Cool conditions will continue to affect the region through the
weekend with several passing weak weather systems. A few showers may
develop on Friday, mainly across northern arizona, as a weak storm
system affects the southwest. The system will also result in breezy
conditions this afternoon. A slight warming trend is expected early
next week before another weather system moves into to the area early
next week bringing another chance for showers along with cooler
temperatures.

Discussion
Early this morning, little had changed with regard to the large
scale weather pattern - a large upper trof remained in place across
most of the western conus. Latest plot RAOB data showed dry westerly
flow aloft over southern arizona and IR imagery showed skies genly
clear over most of southern arizona and far SE california. For the
most part, the cool and somewhat unsettled weather pattern that we
have been under for some time will not change over the next week and
we will continue to be dominated by cyclonic flow and cooler than
normal high temperatures. Periodically, disturbances will move
through the long wave trof and across our area giving us a threat
for precipitation.

The first of these threats will be today, although model guidance
has been trending drier and drier with this system for the past few
days. A short wave over nevada is poised to move southeast and
across arizona later today, with the strongest dynamics and most
significant moisture to affect the northern half of the state. We
are starting with a very dry airmass over southern arizona;
yesterday desert dewpoints were in largely in the teens and though
they have been climbing, are still mostly in the 20s across the
south central deserts as of 2 am. The trajectory of the approaching
system is largely over land and no consequential moisture advection
from the pacific is expected. Latest SREF plumes forecasts suggest
little if any QPF over phoenix with this system; most members show
0.00 accumulation with one or two maybe spitting out 0.01 inches.

Mos pops continue to drop; the latest mav MOS for phoenix shows just
a 9 percent chance of rain this afternoon and the met MOS shows just
1 percent. As such, we will keep pops low, mainly in the slight
chance category for the northern half of our area. Most likely we
will see isolated showers at best over the lower deserts with
slightly better chances over higher terrain areas north and
northeast of phoenix (such as portions of southern gila county).

This system will usher in another shot of cooler air, lowering high
temps today into the mid to upper 50s over much of the lower deserts
and phoenix should see a high around 58 today. After the short wave
quickly exits east this evening, we should clear out and we will
have a rather cold morning coming on Saturday morning. Many lower
deserts will fall into the 30s and although some colder outlying
deserts may drop to around freezing, we don't expect enough areal
coverage of freezing temps to warrant the issuance of a freeze
warning at this time.

For the weekend into early next week, we will see continued dry
westerly flow aloft, with any passing disturbances remaining well to
our north. High temps this weekend will be slow to climb, remaining
well below normal and mostly in the low to middle 60s. A bit more
warming is on tap for next Monday as phoenix approaches the 70
degree mark.

The latest operational guidance from the GFS and ECMWF have come
into better agreement and both call for another upper low to move in
from just off the california coast and across arizona bringing a
chance of showers to the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing issues
between the models have been mostly resolved; the best window for
rain will probably be Tuesday evening into early Wednesday with best
coverage to be over south central arizona (as is usually the case).

Pops have only been tweaked with this system and will stay mostly in
the 30-40 percent ballpark for areas from phoenix east. The system
will usher in more cool air and another cooing trend, dropping high
temperatures back into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

After that models become very inconsistent and any agreement really
goes off the rails; ensemble member spread from the GEFS is extreme.

Gfs operational run suggests a flat ridge developing over the area
while the ECMWF spins up a huge upper closed low over most of the
western CONUS with az on southern flank under somewhat moist
westerly flow. Due to very low confidence, we will not buy into any
of the individual solutions but go with a broad brushed approach
keeping modest pops in the forecast for Thursday - mostly slight
chances or single digit numbers. Temps will remain below seasonal
normals, of course.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
a cold front will bring gusty winds, low cloud decks, and a chance
for isolated showers today. Winds will be out of the west between
10 to 15 kts through 10z tomorrow, with a few gusts to 20-25 kts
possible between 21z and 04z. An increase in low-level moisture
will keep bkn cloud decks around 6 kft this afternoon before skies
start to clear this evening. A very slight chance of showers will
exist today as the front moves through the region, with the best
chances now through 02z. Showers that develop will be light and
not last long.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
elevated winds with gusts to 25 kts will occur again this
afternoon before winds start to weaken overnight. Skies will be
mostly clear, with just few to sct cloud decks near 6 kft.

Significant clearing will occur overnight, primarily after 00z.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Sunday through Thursday:
drier westerly flow aloft will dominate Sunday and Monday,
allowing temperatures to gradually climb and approach seasonal
normals by Monday. Minimum rh values will drop into the 12 to 18
percent range through Monday with improvement into the 20s
starting next Tuesday. A weather system will likely bring good
chances of wetting rains on Tuesday with chances lingering into
Wednesday. Light winds through Monday will increase for Tuesday
and Wednesday as the weather system moves through the area.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Cb
aviation... Hernandez
fire weather... Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TIXC1 - Tijuana River Reserve, CA 89 mi111 min WNW 12 57°F 1025 hPa38°F
SDBC1 - 9410170 - San Diego, CA 89 mi48 min 63°F1024 hPa

Wind History for USS MIDWAY South Navy Pier, San Diego, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Imperial, Imperial County Airport, CA10 mi43 minWNW 13 G 229.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F30°F31%1019.9 hPa
El Centro, Naval Air Facility, CA13 mi40 minWNW 8 G 147.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F26°F27%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from IPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13
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W15W13W14W13W9W13W10W10SW14CalmW19W8W8W11SW12SW4NW7W10W13
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1 day agoN8NW4W4CalmN5CalmSW7SW8W8W6W9SW9W5W8W7W6W9W7W5W8W11W8
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2 days agoNE6N7NW7CalmNE4W6W4CalmCalmN4CalmSW3SW4W6SW3SW4W3W4NW5CalmCalmW83Calm

Tide / Current Tables for National City, San Diego Bay, California
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National City
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM PST     First Quarter
Fri -- 12:33 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:39 AM PST     5.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:23 AM PST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:29 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:47 PM PST     3.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:40 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:20 PM PST     2.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.14.85.25.24.94.33.42.51.710.70.81.21.72.42.93.33.33.22.82.52.32.42.7

Tide / Current Tables for Imperial Beach, California
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Imperial Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM PST     First Quarter
Fri -- 12:33 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:35 AM PST     4.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:10 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:29 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:43 PM PST     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:06 PM PST     2.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.84.34.74.74.43.832.21.40.90.70.81.11.62.22.62.92.92.82.52.32.22.32.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.