Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brawley, CA

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Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 1:57 PM PDT (20:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brawley, CA
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location: 32.98, -115.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 181226
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
526 am mst Tue sep 18 2018

Update Updated fire weather discussion.

Synopsis
Today will be the last day of warmer than normal temperatures
under high pressure before a strong disturbance moves through the
region with relatively deep tropical moisture. This will cause
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across south
central and southwest arizona on Wednesday as temperatures
decrease below seasonal normals. Slight rain chances will continue
into Thursday and Friday before much drier conditions and warmer
temperatures return for this weekend and early next week.

Discussion
South central arizona remains under the influence of a mid-to-
upper level ridge of high pressure that is in the process of
eroding and pushing east as a shortwave trough digs off the coast
of southern california today. Although skies will continue to
remain mostly clear, a slight decrease in h500 heights and 850 mb
temperatures should translate to a 1-2 degree decrease in our high
temperatures from yesterday. The forecast for high temperatures
once again follows the 60th percentile which has worked well the
last two days. Therefore, we should stay below the excessive heat
criteria today everywhere, but forecast highs will still be about
5-8 degrees above normal. Dew points will be a few degrees lower
across the region today, staying in the 50s across the lower
deserts of arizona with 30s and 40s over southeast california.

This slight decrease in low-level moisture combined with stable
midlevel lapse rates and dry conditions aloft should once again
keep convective activity south and east of the region.

Models continue to remain consistent in depicting an impressive
moisture surge overnight Tuesday into Wednesday associated with a
broad inverted trough that originated in the gulf of mexico that
should push off the coast of baja california overnight. Moisture
should move into upper levels and the surface first overnight,
gradually moistening the midlevels at some point tomorrow. This
will cause a very rapid increase from precipitable water values
currently around 1 inch over the lower deserts to the 1.6-2.0 inch
range by tomorrow morning with sfc-800 mb mixing ratios in the
12-14 g kg range. Convective activity should increase over sonora
tonight in response to this feature which may also leave behind a
convectively-reinforced vorticity MAX or MCV that could also play
a role tomorrow. All of this tropical dynamic forcing and moisture
will combine with PVA and weak isentropic ascent over arizona
tomorrow afternoon and evening as the relatively deep trough
(though not as deep as the last couple of model cycles) pushes
into southeast california. The setup is quite good from a synoptic
perspective and very typical of a monsoon transition event
incorporating tropical type moisture with favorable jet energy.

The baja wave and jet streak in addition to the regional proximity
of the right rear northern jet entrance area should provide an
upper divergence field supportive of deep convection.

Models still have some varying ideas of convective evolution on
Wednesday with this significant moisture flux, but most are now
focusing on the Wednesday afternoon, evening, and overnight hours.

Although the operational GFS tries to bring convection into the
region late in the overnight and morning hours, the vast majority
of its ensembles hold convection off until at least late tomorrow
afternoon with the best chances during the evening hours. Our
forecast generally follows the ensemble model consensus, rapidly
increasing pops to 20-40% by tomorrow morning and 40-60% for the
afternoon and evening hours. Some models still suggest extensive
morning showers storms resulting in widespread cloud cover and
very limited instability through the daylight hours. However, a
growing number of ensembles are indicating only passing showers,
allowing for sufficient insolation during the day to realize
substantial instability and strong to severe storms. In the end,
something between these two extremes will likely be the outcome.

Assuming we get some breaks in the cloud cover on Wednesday
afternoon, particularly around and just south and west of
phoenix, MLCAPE should increase to around 1000 j kg with weak
capping. Greater clearing that would allow for more drying at
lower levels and greater dcape values would support stronger
storms capable of producing damaging winds, while less clearing
would probably favor more of a heavy rainfall threat over severe
threat. Both will probably coexist to some degree considering 0-6
km shear vectors will become westerly at 15-20 knots by late
afternoon, supporting multicellular storm organization with
training echoes possible. A big unknown is how much drying will
occur aloft with the westerly shortwave as a decent amount of
drying would steepen lapse rates enough to support hail formation.

Regardless, it should be an active convective day with both heavy
rainfall and severe threats for most of the lower deserts of
arizona and higher terrain north and east of phoenix. Storm
activity could extend as far west as the colorado river, but
moisture will probably be scoured out too quickly to support any
convection over southeast california.

Beyond Wednesday, the operational GFS and ECMWF along with their
ensembles are converging towards a drying trend for Thursday. Both
models keep the remnants of a potential tropical depression or
whatever develops and moves into the gulf of california just south
and east of the region. This makes sense considering this system
should become extratropical as it interacts with the shortwave
trough that should push east of the region by Thursday morning.

Nevertheless, we maintained token 10-20 pops for south central
arizona with slightly higher pops for the higher terrain north and
east of phoenix, realizing the forecast strongly depends on the
track of this disturbance and also how convective evolution on
Wednesday affects its track and modifies the environment. Shower
and thunderstorm activity may linger into Friday before we finally
begin to dry out over the weekend with southwesterly flow aloft
as the subtropical ridge expands over northern mexico and
increases temperatures back to slightly above normal for the
weekend into early next week.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
light easterly winds are expected to predominate through mid to late
morning before becoming briefly light and variable to occasionally
calm during midday. By the early afternoon light to moderate west
winds will move into the area and last well into the night near 6-
11kt. Skies should remain clear to mostly clear through this
evening. An increase in clouds is expected from late tonight through
tomorrow morning as sct-bkn decks from 11-25kft move into the area.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
expect mainly light to moderate northwesterly to westerly winds at
kipl near 6-11kt for today. For kblh, light and variable winds
will yield to moderate southwesterly to southerly winds by late
morning near 8-12kt. Skies will also remain clear to mostly clear
during the period.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Thursday through Monday:
below normal temperatures and continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday will linger into Friday across the lower
deserts and the higher elevations to the east. A warming and drying
trend kicking in by Saturday will allow slightly above normal max
temperatures to spread across the region through the end of the
period. Min rh values above 20 percent across the region through
Friday will fall to the teens across SE ca on Saturday, and
remaining lower desert locales from west to east on Sunday and
Monday. Except for areas near thunderstorms early in the period,
winds will remain mostly light to moderate. Excellent overnight
recovery early in the period will gradually fall to mostly fair
by the end of the period.

Spotter information statement
Spotters reports may be needed later this week in arizona.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Hopper mo
aviation... Sawtelle
fire weather... Sawtelle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TIXC1 - Tijuana River Reserve, CA 89 mi73 min WNW 7 75°F 1012 hPa66°F
SDBC1 - 9410170 - San Diego, CA 89 mi46 min 1010.6 hPa

Wind History for USS MIDWAY South Navy Pier, San Diego, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Imperial, Imperial County Airport, CA10 mi65 minSE 510.00 miFair101°F52°F19%1006.6 hPa
El Centro, Naval Air Facility, CA13 mi62 minSSE 710.00 miFair101°F45°F15%1008.6 hPa

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Last 24hr5SW74W8W10W11W10W14W18
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1 day agoN4E6E6E4S4SW3W8W14NW6NW7W7N5CalmNW5N4NW5NW4CalmCalmN5N4NW44--
2 days agoCalmW433CalmCalmS5SE6E7E8E4E5E6E5E4E6SE6E3SE6S4Calm4Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for National City, San Diego Bay, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Imperial Beach, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.