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FXUS65 KPSR 061137 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 437 AM MST Mon May 6 2024

UPDATE
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
A dry weather pattern is expected all week with a nearly stationary low pressure system situated just to the north of the region. This will bring temperatures back to around normal by Tuesday, lasting through the majority of the week, as well as breezy conditions each afternoon.

DISCUSSION
The upper level low that moved across northern portions of the region yesterday is now ejecting northeastward into the Central Rockies before reaching the Northern Plains later today. However, the Desert Southwest is expected to remain under broad troughing aloft over the next several days, possibly the entire week. For today, the cooler air mass that moved in on Sunday will still be enough to keep temperatures 3-5 degrees below normals. However, starting Tuesday gradual air mass modification and a slight boost in heights aloft will begin to bring some warming resulting in readings closer to seasonal normals.

Going into the middle of the week, the upper level trough is forecast to become more elongated with a piece of energy moving northeastward into southern Canada and another retrograding westward back into the Central Rockies to as far west as the Great Basin. A secondary shortwave trough is also seen tracking from just northwest of Washington today reaching the Great Basin on Tuesday. This will help to increase the gradient over our region on Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday leading to another round of breezy conditions and daytime gusts upwards of 25-30 mph over the higher terrain east of Phoenix on Tuesday and over the majority of the area on Wednesday.

As our region sits just south of the broad upper level low into the latter part of the week, temperatures will remain fairly stable through around Thursday or Friday. This should keep readings right around normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s across the lower deserts. Eventually by next weekend, the upper low will weaken enough that it will no longer keep our temperatures from warming or it will get pushed to the east by an incoming ridge that will be slowly approaching the West Coast. Ensemble guidance is still a bit murky with this eventual evolution and it seems more than likely the ridge will be in a weakening phase by the time it impacts our region. NBM temperature guidance does show a decent warming trend next weekend into early next week with widespread mid to upper 90s highs over the lower deserts and at least some potential for the warmest lower deserts to hit 100 degrees early next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1135Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns through the period under clear skies.
Light and variable or westerly winds are prevailing this morning, with either light easterly (highest likelihood at KIWA) or light and variable winds developing/persisting elsewhere after sunrise.
For KPHX, the variable winds may briefly become light out of the easterly direction before quickly turning westerly late morning/early afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this point. Typical diurnal wind tendencies will continue into tonight, where all terminals will see either the favored easterly or light and variable winds during the overnight hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns should exist through tonight under clear skies. West to northwest component winds are expected to subside, with light and variable winds prevailing through the afternoon. A return of southwest to west winds expected to return in the evening hours and persist into the overnight hours tonight.

FIRE WEATHER
Drier conditions and overall light winds are expected today as MinRHs drop to around 10% this afternoon. The weather pattern into the middle of the week will lead to another round of breezy conditions starting Tuesday with afternoon gusts commonly reaching to around 20 mph to as high as 25 mph in some locations.
Temperatures will warm back to around seasonal normals going into the middle part of the week with highs as warm as the lower 90s across the lower deserts. MinRHs will stay near 10% through at least mid week across the lower deserts to around 15% over higher terrain areas, with overnight recoveries between 20-40%. Weak high pressure is expected over the region through the rest of the week as temperatures return to slightly above normal by the weekend. Winds during the latter half of the week will return to more typical seasonal trends with daily afternoon gusts up to around 20 mph.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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