Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
The Colony, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:25PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:25 AM CDT (07:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Colony, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.08, -96.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kfwd 210419
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1119 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019

Aviation
06z tafs
challenges and concerns: timing convection through the i-35
corridor from 09z-14z and improvement from low MVFR CIGS toVFR
conditions by 16z-18z, with full on clearing through the afternoon
hours.

S winds around 20 knots with gusts 30-35 knots continue at a few
dfw airports, though dal and gky are showing lesser ranges likely
due to equipment discrepancies with their anemometers. I have
chosen to keep higher wind values with gusts through at least
09z-11z with MVFR CIGS already prevailing at waco regional airport
and likely arriving across dfw metro airports no later than 07z
with area radar vwps at 925mb showing S winds at 50 knots.

As the main upper low across the SW deserts approaches the region
between 06z-12z Tuesday, mid level height falls will help to lift
and slowly weaken the elevated cap. In addition, a LLJ will be
screaming between 50-60 knots, which should begin with initially
developing sct -shra across the region by 09z, before a broken
line of tsra moves across the i-35 corridor and airports in the
11z-15z time frame. Meanwhile, MVFR cigs, mostly blo fl020 will
prevail between 06z-15 16z Tuesday, before veering low level flow
and subsidence help draw drier -- more stable air into the region.

Expect SW winds around 15 knots and clearingVFR conditions by
18z Tuesday and beyond.

As decoupling of the drying airmass occurs toward nightfall early
Wednesday evening, look for surfaces winds to back S less than 10
knots withVFR conditions.

05

Short term issued 243 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019
this afternoon through Tuesday
the primary concern in the short term forecast period will be the
risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and through the day on Tuesday. This afternoon's risk
for thunderstorms is highly conditional with a better risk for
storms during the overnight hours.

Summary: there are a couple of opportunities for strong to severe
storms across the area over the next 12 to 24 hours. 1) this
afternoon near and north of i-20... Mainly for areas near and north
of i-20. The risk this afternoon is very conditional given decent
capping and modest ascent. All facets of severe weather will be
possible. 2) the best chance for strong to severe storms across
the area will be after midnight tonight through the early
afternoon hours on Tuesday. The main threats will be damaging
winds and perhaps a low tornado potential. There will be a risk
for additional main stem river and lake flooding as well as
isolated instances of flash flooding... But a widespread
significant flash flood risk is not anticipated. Details on both
of these bouts of strong to possible severe weather are
highlighted below.

Surface analysis early this afternoon has revealed that the
surface warm front that was along the i-20 corridor early has
lifted very quickly into central oklahoma. Visible imagery shows
that clouds are slowly breaking up under the mid-may sun. While
considerable moisture transport northward continues, our 18 utc
fwd RAOB indicates considerable capping. This will mean that the
coverage of strong to severe storms... Should they develop... Will
be low south of the red river as WAA continues. Given the
instability values in excess of 2500 j kg and deep layer shear
greater than 35 knots... There will be a threat for supercellular
storm modes capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two *if* updrafts can penetrate the 15 c capping
inversion. At this time, it would appear that potential is
dwindling. Heavy rain will be a threat as well with isolated
instances of flooding possible. At this time, the storm motion
should preclude a widespread significant flash flood risk.

Most of north texas should be free of any convective chances as we
near 00 utc Tuesday... The exception may be near and north of the
us hwy 380 corridor where the magnitude of WAA may be greater.

Otherwise, 925mb flow will ramp up with forecast progs indicating
near 50 knots. More impressive is the 850mb flow with some
guidance suggesting near 70 knots along the us hwy 281 corridor. A
band of convection is expected to develop after midnight across
the big country and should move eastward towards north and central
texas. This complex of storms will bisect this very strong low
level flow. Within the strong southerly regime... Rich theta-e air
will streak northward and should fuel convection. Morning and
early afternoon hi-res guidance has consistently hinted that
activity may weaken as it trucks eastward toward the i-35
corridor. The fly-in-the-ointment to these solutions that weaken
the line of storms abruptly is the magnitude of the low level
flow is (925mb ~50 knots, 850mb ~60 knots). This may promote a
longer cessation of severe weather than advertised by these hi-
res models as higher theta-e air may be available for convective
updrafts along the leading edge. With this in mind... We will
continue to advertise a damaging wind hazard as the line continues
eastward. A greater damaging wind and qlcs-type tornado potential
may evolve if convection can remain rooted along the its cold
pool. If the latter does not happen... Then convective cells may
tend to be undercut by the cold pool and may hamper downward
momentum transfer efficiency and this is something that will be
monitored as storms develop. I expect that storms will be near
the us hwy 281 corridor around 4 to 5 am Tuesday... I-35 corridor
(including the d fw metroplex... Waco and killeen temple belton)
around the 6 to 7 am timeframe and then across east texas around
10 am. There could be some re-invigoration of the
line... If the line slows down and can take advantage of some
heating. This scenario, however, looks quite low. The best severe
weather potential will likely be near and west of i-35..Unless
the line strengthens after sunrise. Periodic flooding will be
possible, but given the expected storm motion, the threat for
widespread flash flooding is too low to warrant a flash flood
watch at this juncture.

Bain

Long term issued 243 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019
Tuesday night through Monday
the midweek pattern will continue to feature troughing over the
western u.S. With a strengthening ridge over the southeastern part
of the country keeping us near or slightly above normal on
temperatures. On Wednesday a strong shortwave will rotate around
the base of the overall broad trough and dig into arizona.

Strengthening southerly flow will result in a northward surge of
moisture into the region although we'll generally be capped during
this time with stronger forcing for ascent well removed to the
west.

With the overall slow eastward progression of the troughing (due
to the strong ridging over the east), most of the convection will
be closely tied to the dryline through the latter part of the
week. This should be primarily to our west. We'll continue to
mention some low pops mainly across our northwest counties late
Thursday night into early Friday morning when the dryline may get
a little farther eastward push thanks to an ejecting shortwave
into the plains.

We'll continue to be positioned between the troughing to the west
and the stronger ridge to the east into the weekend. We'll
maintain generally low pops (10% or less) each afternoon with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Dunn

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 72 85 68 89 74 50 80 0 0 0
waco 73 88 70 89 73 30 70 0 0 0
paris 72 82 68 87 71 30 70 5 5 0
denton 72 83 65 89 73 70 80 0 5 0
mckinney 74 82 66 87 73 50 80 5 0 0
dallas 74 86 69 89 74 50 80 0 0 0
terrell 74 82 69 89 73 30 80 5 0 0
corsicana 73 85 71 89 72 20 70 5 0 0
temple 71 87 69 89 73 20 70 0 0 0
mineral wells 70 85 62 88 70 80 60 0 5 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory until 1 am cdt Tuesday for txz091>093-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

05 08


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX8 mi50 minSSE 16 G 2710.00 miOvercast76°F68°F75%1001 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX14 mi32 minSSE 20 G 3310.00 miOvercast and Breezy77°F66°F71%998.4 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX15 mi32 minS 17 G 3210.00 miOvercast79°F68°F69%999.5 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi32 minSSE 19 G 3210.00 miOvercast and Breezy77°F66°F71%999.1 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX18 mi32 minSSE 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast77°F69°F77%1000.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX23 mi32 minSSE 22 G 328.00 miOvercast and Breezy77°F66°F71%997.6 hPa

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrE8SE7SE8SE6SE9SE8SE9
G15
SE16
G21
S14
G23
S16
G25
S12
G24
S17
G30
S17
G30
S15
G25
SE27
G38
S20
G31
SE18
G29
------SE13
G24
SE16
G21
SE16
G23
SE20
G29
1 day agoS4S3S5W4W8N8N11
G16
N9N11
G16
N9
G12
N10N8N6NE7E9E8
G33
E7E8--NE7E5E5E9E8
2 days agoS13
G21
S13
G18
S13
G17
S11
G17
SE12
G20
SE16
G21
SE13
G20
SE12
G20
S12
G17
S12
G21
N7
G16
S16
G30
S10
G18
SW6
G17
SE4SE4S8S9
G15
SE10SE6S6SE9S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.