Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paradise Valley, AZ
March 18, 2024 11:44 PM MST (06:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 6:39 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 190552 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1052 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024
UPDATE
Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues with showers and thunderstorms expected through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening across south-central Arizona. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms decreases for Tuesday before the responsible weather system finally exits the region Wednesday. Ridging will build over the Intermountain West by the end of the week which will result in dry and tranquil conditions along with continued temperature increases towards well-above normal levels. Cooler unsettled weather then looks to return this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
An active afternoon is underway as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of central Arizona with strong winds, hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning possible through the afternoon. The threat for strong and perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening.
The unsettled weather pattern continues as a Rex Block remains in place over the western CONUS with a cutoff upper-level low situated over the Southwest. Currently this afternoon, satellite WV imagery shows this upper low continuing to retrograde westward with the low center now situated over Riverside County. As a result, an influx of better moisture has creeped into south-central Arizona with PWAT values increasing upwards of 0.6-0.7" through the afternoon. Instability across the region continues to increase this afternoon with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km across Maricopa, Pinal, and Gila Counties. Combined with forced ascent associated with the aforementioned upper low, thunderstorms will continue to blossom across parts of south- central Arizona through the afternoon. The latest 12Z HRRR keeps the bulk of this thunderstorm activity east of Phoenix through the afternoon with chances decreasing westward over the desert floor.
However with the potential for strong outflows pushing across the valley floor this afternoon into the early evening, we could conceivably see some additional development make it into the Valley. As mentioned, strong outflows will be possible today with model soundings showing DCAPE values upwards of 700-900 J/kg this afternoon. HRRR shows probabilities of exceeding 35 mph climbing upwards of 50-70% with the greatest chances residing across eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties and portions of southern Gila County. Could see an isolated severe thunderstorm gust, which the HRRR has been aggressive in showing in some of its runs.
Additionally, the better lapse rates and instability could lead to some larger hail compared to the small pea-sized hail that's been more common in some of our recent events. In terms of dust, some areas of blowing dust generated by strong outflows will be possible, though less favorable given the expected orientation of outflow boundaries. Rainfall amounts outside of thunderstorms will generally remain light, mostly under 0.25" with locally heavy amounts for areas that end up under a thunderstorm.
The upper low will shift eastward back over Arizona Tuesday while gradually weakening in the process. Instability will not be as high as today with SBCAPE values around 100-300 J/kg closer to the cold core. CAMs support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon around the Kofas and over high terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. The Rex Block pattern finally breaks down heading into Wednesday and the upper low shifts east into New Mexico. This will be replaced with flat ridging over the Desert Southwest giving us drier, warmer weather for the latter half of this week. Temperatures by Thursday warm up into the low to mid 80s across the south-central Arizona lower deserts and mid to upper 80s across southeast California and southwest Arizona. Some areas will flirt with their first 90 degree temperature of the year on Thursday with NBM probabilities of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees climbing upwards of 50-70% across the Imperial Valley. Global ensembles then show troughing returning to the western CONUS this weekend into early next week. Thus, we will be looking at the return of some cooler unsettled weather once again.
AVIATION
Updated at 0550Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern through the TAF period will be the potential for the development of isolated-scattered showers and storms and gusty winds from any outflows once again tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Right now models are too uncertain (<20%) with the exact location of these showers and storms to put a mention of them in the TAFS. Winds at KPHX are currently WNW'rly and may go light and variable at times through the overnight hours before going easterly by the mid- morning. For the other three terminals, current light northeasterly winds will become light and variable during the overnight hours before becoming E'rly/SE'rly by mid-to-late morning. All sites will then do their typical diurnal switch to westerly tomorrow afternoon.
FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT CU clouds developing during the afternoon hours with bases aoa 8-9 kft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds at both terminals will remain light, aob 5 kt, through the TAF period. At KBLH, current northeasterly winds will become variable early Tuesday morning before going westerly late Tuesday afternoon. At KIPL, current westerly winds will become northwesterly late Tuesday morning and then go back westerly Tuesday evening. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF with FEW CU clouds developing tomorrow afternoon with bases aoa 8 kft.
FIRE WEATHER
Low pressure will continue to promote rain chances over the next few days, especially across higher elevation locations. Outside of any rainfall activity, breezy conditions are expected across the the far eastern districts with max gusts approaching 30-35 mph at times. Elsewhere, winds should generally be light, with occasional afternoon breeziness. High pressure will then build over the region by the middle of the week resulting in drier and more tranquil conditions. MinRHs for the front half of the week should remain above 20-25% across the region before moisture levels begin to drop off once the aforementioned high pressure sets in.
Temperatures will hover around normal for the next few days before a quick warm-up takes place during the latter portion of the week
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1052 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024
UPDATE
Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues with showers and thunderstorms expected through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening across south-central Arizona. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms decreases for Tuesday before the responsible weather system finally exits the region Wednesday. Ridging will build over the Intermountain West by the end of the week which will result in dry and tranquil conditions along with continued temperature increases towards well-above normal levels. Cooler unsettled weather then looks to return this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
An active afternoon is underway as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of central Arizona with strong winds, hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning possible through the afternoon. The threat for strong and perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening.
The unsettled weather pattern continues as a Rex Block remains in place over the western CONUS with a cutoff upper-level low situated over the Southwest. Currently this afternoon, satellite WV imagery shows this upper low continuing to retrograde westward with the low center now situated over Riverside County. As a result, an influx of better moisture has creeped into south-central Arizona with PWAT values increasing upwards of 0.6-0.7" through the afternoon. Instability across the region continues to increase this afternoon with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km across Maricopa, Pinal, and Gila Counties. Combined with forced ascent associated with the aforementioned upper low, thunderstorms will continue to blossom across parts of south- central Arizona through the afternoon. The latest 12Z HRRR keeps the bulk of this thunderstorm activity east of Phoenix through the afternoon with chances decreasing westward over the desert floor.
However with the potential for strong outflows pushing across the valley floor this afternoon into the early evening, we could conceivably see some additional development make it into the Valley. As mentioned, strong outflows will be possible today with model soundings showing DCAPE values upwards of 700-900 J/kg this afternoon. HRRR shows probabilities of exceeding 35 mph climbing upwards of 50-70% with the greatest chances residing across eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties and portions of southern Gila County. Could see an isolated severe thunderstorm gust, which the HRRR has been aggressive in showing in some of its runs.
Additionally, the better lapse rates and instability could lead to some larger hail compared to the small pea-sized hail that's been more common in some of our recent events. In terms of dust, some areas of blowing dust generated by strong outflows will be possible, though less favorable given the expected orientation of outflow boundaries. Rainfall amounts outside of thunderstorms will generally remain light, mostly under 0.25" with locally heavy amounts for areas that end up under a thunderstorm.
The upper low will shift eastward back over Arizona Tuesday while gradually weakening in the process. Instability will not be as high as today with SBCAPE values around 100-300 J/kg closer to the cold core. CAMs support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon around the Kofas and over high terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. The Rex Block pattern finally breaks down heading into Wednesday and the upper low shifts east into New Mexico. This will be replaced with flat ridging over the Desert Southwest giving us drier, warmer weather for the latter half of this week. Temperatures by Thursday warm up into the low to mid 80s across the south-central Arizona lower deserts and mid to upper 80s across southeast California and southwest Arizona. Some areas will flirt with their first 90 degree temperature of the year on Thursday with NBM probabilities of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees climbing upwards of 50-70% across the Imperial Valley. Global ensembles then show troughing returning to the western CONUS this weekend into early next week. Thus, we will be looking at the return of some cooler unsettled weather once again.
AVIATION
Updated at 0550Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern through the TAF period will be the potential for the development of isolated-scattered showers and storms and gusty winds from any outflows once again tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Right now models are too uncertain (<20%) with the exact location of these showers and storms to put a mention of them in the TAFS. Winds at KPHX are currently WNW'rly and may go light and variable at times through the overnight hours before going easterly by the mid- morning. For the other three terminals, current light northeasterly winds will become light and variable during the overnight hours before becoming E'rly/SE'rly by mid-to-late morning. All sites will then do their typical diurnal switch to westerly tomorrow afternoon.
FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT CU clouds developing during the afternoon hours with bases aoa 8-9 kft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds at both terminals will remain light, aob 5 kt, through the TAF period. At KBLH, current northeasterly winds will become variable early Tuesday morning before going westerly late Tuesday afternoon. At KIPL, current westerly winds will become northwesterly late Tuesday morning and then go back westerly Tuesday evening. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF with FEW CU clouds developing tomorrow afternoon with bases aoa 8 kft.
FIRE WEATHER
Low pressure will continue to promote rain chances over the next few days, especially across higher elevation locations. Outside of any rainfall activity, breezy conditions are expected across the the far eastern districts with max gusts approaching 30-35 mph at times. Elsewhere, winds should generally be light, with occasional afternoon breeziness. High pressure will then build over the region by the middle of the week resulting in drier and more tranquil conditions. MinRHs for the front half of the week should remain above 20-25% across the region before moisture levels begin to drop off once the aforementioned high pressure sets in.
Temperatures will hover around normal for the next few days before a quick warm-up takes place during the latter portion of the week
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSDL SCOTTSDALE,AZ | 5 sm | 51 min | N 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 39°F | 45% | 30.03 | |
KDVT PHOENIX DEER VALLEY,AZ | 6 sm | 51 min | NNE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 41°F | 55% | 30.03 | |
KPHX PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTL,AZ | 13 sm | 53 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 41°F | 45% | 30.01 | |
KFFZ FALCON FLD,AZ | 18 sm | 50 min | NNE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 30.02 | |
KLUF LUKE AFB,AZ | 21 sm | 49 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 41°F | 51% | 30.03 | |
KGYR PHOENIX GOODYEAR,AZ | 24 sm | 3 hrs | N 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 41°F | 42% | 30.02 |
Phoenix, AZ,
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