Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:22PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:29 AM MST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:00PMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 122201
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
301 pm mst Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis A weak weather system will move across the region
through Thursday. However, moisture will be insufficient for
rainfall. Slight cooling will take place through Thursday, but
temperatures will remain at or above normal. There will be off and
on periods of thicker high clouds Friday through Sunday before a
slight chance of showers develops next Monday through Tuesday.

Discussion
The upper low that brought the high clouds yesterday has sheared
out quite a bit over northwest mexico. The next system has already
sent a narrow batch of high clouds over the area and that will be
about it as sky cover GOES since the brunt of the system is
passing well north and east of our forecast area. However, there
is a cold front with it which extends roughly from northwest
colorado southwestward into the mohave desert. In fact, northerly
winds have already developed at bullhead city and 29 palms. As the
dry front sags southward tonight and Thursday, it will bring
breezy conditions at times (windy over higher terrain locations
and adjacent foothills) along with lower humidities and somewhat
cooler air (near normal values). Except for some mountaintop
locations, wind advisory criteria is not expected.

High pressure quickly builds in behind the front for warmer
temperatures Friday. Lingering warmth at the lower levels will
allow for some modest additional warming Saturday. But, a split in
the westerlies will enable a weak upper low to develop centered
just west of northern baja and it will phase up with the lower
level remnants of a subtropical branch low. This will initially
mean thick high clouds Friday night into Saturday. A stronger and
larger upstream trough will push the weaker northeastward through the
desert southwest Sunday into Monday for another round of thick
cloudiness. There will also be a slight chance of light showers
over the higher terrain of south-central az.

The aforementioned stronger upstream trough develops a closed low
over california on Monday within the southern branch of a split in
the flow. The GFS tracks the low southeastward with the center
passing through southwest california and then near the mexico
border. The bulls-eye of QG forcing moves through far southeast ca
and southwest az Monday night and then southeast az Tuesday.

However, there are uncertainties in the track and intensity of the
low and thus slight chance pops will suffice for now during the
Monday night - Tuesday time frame (raised somewhat from previous
forecast package). Also only a modest downtrend in temps forecast
for now.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
there are no aviation weather concerns through this evening. Light
winds will prevail while favoring typical diurnal directional
tendencies.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
there are few aviation weather concerns through this evening. The
winds will remain light and variable at times, and eventually
favoring a westerly-northwesterly direction. Some stronger winds
upwards of 10-15 kts for kblh can be expected.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Friday through Tuesday:
minimal fire weather concerns through the period. High pressure
will build over the region on Friday before an unsettled weather
pattern develops Saturday through the early part of next week.

Minimum afternoon humidity levels will be on the increase, with
values around 15 to 25 percent on Friday, rising into the 30 to 40
percent range Monday and Tuesday. Overnight recoveries will be
good to excellent. Wind speeds will remain light through Monday,
before some breeziness develops on Tuesday (mainly along ridge
tops in southwest az and southeast ca).

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Aj
aviation... Deemer
fire weather... Hernandez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi36 minNNE 410.00 miFair49°F39°F71%1020.6 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi36 minNE 910.00 miFair50°F39°F66%1020.4 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair50°F41°F71%1020.3 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi35 minENE 610.00 miFair48°F39°F71%1020.2 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi91 minNW 810.00 miFair47°F38°F73%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4CalmNE3CalmCalm------Calm3SW5W6SW3SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmNE3W4E4NE4NE4
1 day agoCalmW5CalmW3CalmCalmW5W5W4W3NW5N3CalmE6S3S4W4NW3N4CalmNW3CalmNE4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmW4SW3CalmCalmE4SE4SE3E4E7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.