Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 7:42PM Friday June 22, 2018 9:01 PM MST (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 222100
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
200 pm mst Fri jun 22 2018

Somewhat cooler temperatures will spread over the southwest through
the weekend as a weak low pressure system passes north of the
region. This period of more moderate temperatures will be brief as
by early next week, high temperatures in lower elevation communities
will once again be flirting with the 110 degree mark. There are
still no signs of rain through next week as deeper moisture remains
trapped south of the international border.

A deep midtropospheric anti-cyclone has become depressed from
southern arizona into the northern gulf of california this afternoon
in response to shortwave energy and a modest jet streak digging
southeast into the great basin. Prior to this evolution, 12z ktwc
sounding data sampled h5 heights at 595dm (near record levels for
the date) and thermal profiles nearly identical to Thursday. Not
surprisingly, surface temperatures were trending fairly close to 24
hours ago and eventual highs should be approaching and or touching
the 110 degree threshold.

The aforementioned shortwave upper trough will evolve across the
northern rockies this weekend leading to a decrease in midlevel
heights across most of the western conus, and correspondingly a
slight cooling trend Saturday and Sunday. Despite this seemingly
boring transition, there is very good evidence the combination of a
tightening pressure gradient and differential heating will result in
a shallow gulf surge of moisture through far SW arizona and se
california Saturday morning. This surge is best identified by high
resolution models, but even consensus blends suggest temperatures
muted by this richer near surface moisture. However even with
afternoon highs nearly 10f cooler than today, mid 60 dewpoints in
cities like yuma and EL centro may actually make it feel more
uncomfortable than the current dry environment.

This overall cooling trend will be short-lived as ridging and
heights near 594dm build back over arizona and new mexico early next
week. There is good model consensus that temperatures nearing 110
degrees will return to lower desert communities as early as Tuesday.

With the breadth of the ridge axis extending through the southern
tier of the CONUS and the storm track remaining fairly active for
late june across the pacific northwest northern tier, it will be
difficult for high pressure to become established in a more
favorable location necessary for moisture transport into the
forecast area. In fact, there is some signal for a seasonably strong
upper trough to develop late next week across the western conus,
which would bring another cool down to the southwest and continue to
trap better quality moisture into central mexico.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
no aviation concerns will exist through Saturday afternoon under
clear skies. Some afternoon westerly wind gusts around 20kt will be
likely around the phoenix terminals, but otherwise timing of
directional changes will be similar to the past several days.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
under clear skies, increasingly gusty S SE winds Saturday will be
the primary aviation concern. By mid morning, sustained winds 10-
15kt will be common with stronger gusts impacting the terminal sites
by noon. Kblh will experience the strongest winds well over 20kt
with only slightly weaker speeds at kipl.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
a rapid warming trend will spread into the districts early next week
with temperatures easily climbing above seasonal normals by Tuesday.

By the middle of the week, conditions will be similar to the past
several days (i.E hot and dry). Minimum afternoon humidity values
will fall back mostly into the single digits with a return of poor
to fair overnight recovery. No strong winds are expected next week,
although typical afternoon upslope gustiness will be common around
terrain features. There are still no signs of rain through next

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation will not be needed through at least the middle of
next week.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm mst this evening for azz532-

Heat advisory until 9 pm mst this evening for azz563.

Ca... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm pdt this evening for caz561-

Discussion... Mo rogers
aviation... Mo
fire weather... Mo

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi68 minWSW 510.00 miFair103°F35°F9%1001.5 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi68 minSW 910.00 miFair102°F28°F8%1000.8 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi70 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds105°F27°F6%1000.4 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi74 minS 610.00 miClear106°F35°F9%1003.7 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi74 minSW 540.00 miClear100°F35°F10%1004.4 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi63 minSW 1010.00 miFair103°F30°F8%1001 hPa

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE3SE4S54S8SW5W94SW86W9W8SW5Calm
1 day agoW4W7W5W4N3CalmCalmNE5N3Calm3S3S3W53W7W9W11
2 days agoCalmCalmN3N4N3SW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4SW9SW8W8W8W5SW8SW9SW6SW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.