Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:12 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 1:19 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 021726 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1026 AM MST Thu May 2 2024

UPDATE
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures are anticipated through Saturday with lower desert highs reaching the low to mid 90s each afternoon. A dry weather system will pass through the Intermountain West this weekend resulting in widespread breezy to locally windy conditions and cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will continue with steadily rebounding temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION
The upper level pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hrs as large scale troughing remains the predominant feature across the western CONUS and dry westerly mid-lvl flow prevails over the forecast area. Warm and dry weather will continue across the Desert Southwest and winds will be light with the exception of a few rogue afternoon gusts. Daily highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s or around 3-5 degrees above normal through Saturday. Overnight lows across the region will continue to be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

As we head into this weekend, ensembles and deterministic forecast models depict a cutoff low entering the Pacific NW on Saturday and swinging across the Intermountain West on Sunday and Monday. There seems to now be better agreement between the ensemble members regarding the overall progression and strength of this feature with both the EPS and GEFS showing the system deepening and propagating through NV and UT on Sunday. The main impact from this system will be gusty winds beginning out west across the Imperial Valley Saturday evening. Latest NBM wind gusts have increased substantially across SE California after 00Z Sunday where strong sun-downer winds will be possible in Imperial County. NBM probabilities have increased to 70-80% for gusts greater than 40 mph, especially in the Southwest Corner of Imperial County through late Saturday night.

The base of the upper-lvl trough will reach N AZ on Sunday afternoon. As this occurs, hghts aloft will decrease over the forecast area resulting in cooler temperatures region-wide with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Widespread breezy to windy conditions can be expected Sunday afternoon with gusts in the 30-35 mph range across the lower deserts of southcentral AZ and 40+ mph in the AZ high terrain. Longwave troughing will continue to be reinforced over the Intermountain West through Monday which will also feature near to slightly below normal temperatures and continued breeziness across the region. Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures look to slowly rebound to slightly above normal, however the overall longwave troughing pattern across the Western CONUS looks to persist.

AVIATION
Updated at 1720Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies, with a period of southerly winds expected through the early afternoon hours before a full transition out of the west. Wind speeds will generally remain aob 10 kts, although some occasional gusts into the mid-teens will be possible through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be southerly through the period with speeds below 10 kts. Extended periods of variability in the wind direction are likely.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry weather with light and diurnal winds will continue through the remainder of this week. Afternoon highs will top out around 3-5 degrees above normal through Saturday. A dry weather system will pass north of the region on Sunday, resulting in widespread breezy to windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph in SE California on Saturday evening and up to 30-40 mph across southcentral AZ on Sunday. Afternoon min RHs will bottom out around 8-20% over the next few days, while overnight recoveries remain in the poor to fair category between 30-60%..

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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