Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:22PM Saturday February 24, 2018 3:17 AM MST (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:58PMMoonset 2:17AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 240935
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
235 am mst Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Cool conditions will continue to affect the region through the
weekend with several passing weak weather systems. A slight warming
trend is expected next Monday before another weather system moves
into to the area early next week bringing another chance for showers
along with cooler temperatures.

Discussion
At 2 am this morning, a fast moving upper shortwave was pushing east
of the area, bringing dry subsident northwest flow aloft along with
a cooler and drier airmass to the deserts. Surface dewpoints over
the central deserts were in the 20s, and blythe was down to 10. Ir
imagery showed clear skies area wide. Although winds have tapered
off behind the exiting wave cold front, there remains enough breeze
to keep temperatures from dropping to their full potential and most
deserts should stay at least slightly above the freezing mark this
morning.

For the next few days, a dry but continued cool pattern will persist
over the area, fast moving disturbances will pass by to our north,
such as one moving through the four corners Sunday, keeping
conditions dry and unseasonably cool. High temps this weekend will
stay well below normal with deserts readings in the low to mid 60s.

Temps Monday will climb at least several degrees with phoenix
finally rising to around 70 as mid upper level flow becomes a bit
more southerly.

Model guidance has started to lock in on the timing moisture of the
next system that will affect our area for the early to middle
portion of next week. At this time, another wet pacific low will
move across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best window
for significant rains to be Tuesday night for south central arizona.

Both the ece and mex pops have by far the highest values Tuesday
night - both near or above 50 percent - and the mra MOS for phoenix
is now up to 58 percent. Both the GFS and ECMWF initially form a
closed low just off the central ca coast, and as the low swings in
from the west, it will be able to tap into some moisture from the
pacific. No atmospheric river is being advertised, but we will
likely see a well organized frontal band move inland and into the
western deserts Tuesday, then across central az Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing scattered to numerous showers to the area. Pops
have been raised accordingly and will likely be raised further as we
close in on this next event. It will also bring much cooler
temperatures; desert highs will fall back into the 60s Tuesday and
the cooler central deserts will lower to around 60 on Wednesday.

For the latter part of the week, GFS and ECMWF are in somewhat
better agreement, and although ensemble member spread remains high,
the members are not quite as chaotic as they were 24 hours ago.

Basically, we should see a very large upper low develop over the
western conus, but the center will remain well to our
north northwest and as it moves east, arizona will remain on the far
southern flank under somewhat dry westerly flow aloft. Pops will
stay on the low side for Thursday and Friday, generally single
digits or slight chance numbers with skies to be partly cloudy. High
temperatures will rise gradually with warmer deserts climbing into
the low 70s by Friday.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
weak virga showers sprinkles have shifted into far eastern
portions of the greater phoenix area. Gradual clearing can be
expected through 06z, with only periodic scattered clouds between
8-10 thousand feet. Wind gusts have also diminished across most
area terminals. An atypical westerly winds should persist
overnight, before a weakening pressure gradient results in more
variable directions after sunrise Saturday morning.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
gusty winds have diminished at kipl kblh this evening, with a
north to northwest direction generally favored. Mostly clear skies
can be expected overnight, with weaker wind speeds Saturday.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Sunday through Thursday:
drier westerly flow aloft will dominate Sunday and Monday,
allowing temperatures to gradually climb and approach seasonal
normals by Monday. Minimum rh values will drop into the 12 to 18
percent range through Monday with improvement into the 20s
starting next Tuesday. A weather system will likely bring good
chances of wetting rains on Tuesday with chances lingering into
Wednesday. Light winds through Monday will increase for Tuesday
and Wednesday as the weather system moves through the area.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Cb
aviation... Rogers
fire weather... Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi25 minWNW 510.00 miFair41°F26°F55%1021.1 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi25 minWNW 410.00 miFair39°F24°F55%1020.9 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi27 minW 810.00 miFair44°F26°F49%1021.1 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi80 minNW 610.00 miFair41°F26°F56%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE63S7S7SW12W13
G19
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W5SW3NW8
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4N3CalmNW4NW4NW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE335S7S76SW8SW6W4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW435SW6SW646S3W5W3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.