Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 7:35PM Saturday July 22, 2017 1:35 PM MST (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 222027
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
127 pm mst Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Thunderstorm activity... Most numerous over the higher
terrain... Will continue through the weekend with chances expanding
into southeast california Monday. Additional cloud cover and a
moist atmosphere will lead to seasonally cool temperatures through
early next week. Drier southwesterly flow aloft develops next
week. This will lead to drier air and warmer temperatures along
with fewer storms region-wide.

Discussion
Today through Monday:
analysis of the 500 millibar level shows the center of the anti-
cyclonic rotation situated over utah. The goes-16 experimental
moisture channel shows some upper level subsidence with drier air
aloft in association with the anti-cyclone, although some upper
level moisture is trying to filter in. There is ample low level
moisture as this morning's surface analysis indicated dew points
above 60 degrees across the lower desert, while the 12z sounding
revealed thick moisture up to 500mb, and nearly 1.9 inches of
precipitable water.

Satellite imagery also reveals an inverted trough lurking over
sonora, mexico with ongoing convection that has allowed storms to
form over southeast arizona this morning. For central arizona,
storms are initiating over the white mountains and the rim in
response to another wave discernible in the 500mb wind field. The
steering flow will be from north to south again which may be
favorable for storms, and associated outflows, to make way into
the lower desert. The storm-scale ensemble of opportunity (sseo)
highlights all of gila county and a portion of northeastern
maricopa and pinal counties as having the greatest chance for
storms. Given the ample low level moisture, thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rains. Therefore, flooding will
continue to be the primary concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue into Sunday and Monday,
especially as the aforementioned lurking inverted trough
continues to its westward journey. As the trough approaches,
favorable atmospheric dynamics for storms should spread over the
southern half of arizona and into southeast california. All places
look to have some chance for rain, including yuma and EL centro,
which have largely been left out of the monsoon activity so far.

Again, flooding looks to be the primary concern; however,
southeasterly steering winds both Sunday and Monday could lead to
blowing dust issues for i-10 corridor between phoenix and tucson.

Tuesday through Saturday:
we start to see a break in monsoon activity as dry southwesterly
flow starts to develop and pushes moisture north and east. This
will keep thunderstorm chances confined to the higher terrain
north and east of phoenix each afternoon. With the steering flow
out of the southwest, it's going to be extremely difficult for
outflows and or thunderstorms that develop over the higher
terrain to propagate into the lower deserts.

Although still too far out for much confidence, it's looking like
the 500 mb high starts to center itself around the four corners.

This would provide us with that moist easterly flow we need to
get an increase in monsoonal moisture and increased chances for
thunderstorms across the lower deserts again.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
isolated light showers virga will brush northern and eastern
portions of metro phoenix through 15z before dissipating.

Probability of passing directly over the TAF sites too low to
insert tempo in the tafs for those showers. Otherwise, variable
mid clouds this morning. More clouds and scattered light showers
over the higher terrain north and east of metro phoenix this
morning. Later today, look for thunderstorm development once again
over the favored higher terrain locations. With northeasterly
steering flow, expect northern and eastern portions of metro
phoenix to be affected by storms. However, confidence too low on
timing and locations of storms to reflect in tafs but expect to at
least see some outflows after 00z. Otherwise surface winds will
follow familiar diurnal patterns.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
skies will be mostly clear today and tonight. An exception will be
la paz county where isolated thunderstorm development is possible
this afternoon and evening. Surface winds will follow familiar warm
season patterns favoring south and southeast directions.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
shower and thunderstorm potential expands westward into southeast
california Monday with minimum humidities well above 20% across
the forecast area. A drying trend begins Tuesday with declining
humidities and an eastward retreat of storm chances. Overnight
humidity recovery remains fair to good. Apart from thunderstorms,
winds will follow familiar warm season patterns.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Deemer hernandez
aviation... Aj
fire weather... Aj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi43 minVar 610.00 miFair98°F60°F28%1008.6 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi43 minSSW 710.00 miFair98°F63°F32%1008.1 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi45 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy101°F59°F25%1007.9 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi49 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy100°F57°F24%1010.8 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi46 minW 10 G 1540.00 miPartly Cloudy99°F64°F33%1011.5 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi38 minSW 4 miA Few Clouds101°F57°F24%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5466--E8SE4SE4CalmW3SW4S4SE4CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW6356
1 day agoW8
G14
W6W7SW5W5W13
G18
CalmN5SE10SE6SE4SE4SE4SE4E3CalmCalmSE4SE5E35SW83Calm
2 days ago3SW18
G25
W14
G22
W11
G18
W10
G17
NW9NW5NW5W3SW3SE9SE7SE6CalmCalmSW3SE3SE5CalmSE3S34SW5W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.