Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:12 PM Moonrise 1:48 AM   Moonset 12:09 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 011130 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 430 AM MST Wed May 1 2024

UPDATE
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures are anticipated through the remainder of this week with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. An upper level trough will swing through the Desert Southwest late this weekend resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures across southcentral AZ and southeast CA. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail across the forecast area through early next week.

DISCUSSION
Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and streamline analysis reveals a broad trough stretching across the western CONUS and dry westerly flow aloft present over AZ and southeast CA. Amplification of the northern stream trough will cause mid-lvl hghts/thicknesses to decrease slightly today, promoting slightly cooler temperatures than we saw yesterday with lower desert highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. Very little change in temperatures is expected across the region on Thursday and Friday as 500 mb hghts remain steady around 573-574 dam. Clear skies and an uptick in afternoon breeziness is anticipated through the remainder of this week, but overall dry and quiescent weather is expected.

As we head into this weekend, ensembles still depict a potent shortwave trough digging southeast into the Pacific NW on Saturday and swinging across the Intermountain West on Sunday and Monday.
There is still disagreement amongst the ensembles regarding the overall progression and depth of this trough with a lower amplitude and more northerly track suggested by the EPS while the GEFS is showing a deeper and more southerly route. Despite these differences, we can expect an increase in winds from this system.
Gusts will likely reach 20-30 mph beginning as early as Saturday across southeast CA and southwest AZ. Stronger winds will begin to overspread AZ on Sunday where gusts could reach 25-35 mph across the lower deserts with 40+ mph in the higher terrain areas. Due to the negative hght anomalies associated with this trough, temperatures will cool back down to around normal with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s on Sunday and Monday. After the trough departs, zonal flow aloft should return to the forecast area and temperatures will steadily climb back above normal by the middle of next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1130Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are anticipated during the TAF period under FEW passing high clouds. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies and remain mostly aob 10 kts sustained, with occasional gusts in the mid to upper teens this afternoon. Winds will veer from SE to S between 15-17Z this morning across the South-Central Arizona terminals, leading to a prolonged period with a southerly cross runway component at KPHX into the early afternoon before winds establish out of the west.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry conditions will persist through the rest of this week with highs consistently around 3-5 degrees above normal each day through Saturday. A dry weather system will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area on Sunday and Monday. Winds will be light today with some afternoon breeziness anticipated through Friday, however there will be a noticeable increase in winds this weekend with gusts reaching 20-30 mph, locally up to 40 mph in the higher terrain on Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-15% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around 25-50%.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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