Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:50PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 9:51 AM MST (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:25AMMoonset 5:37PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 181118
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
415 am mst Wed oct 18 2017

Updated aviation and fire weather...

Synopsis
Warm conditions will continue today as a weak disturbance
approaches from the west. This will bring a slight chance for
very light showers over south central arizona Thursday morning,
but will quickly move out of our area by late Thursday afternoon.

A cooler airmass will settle in over the weekend before high
pressure returns, sending temperatures well above normal by early
next week.

Discussion
High pressure remains over the desert southwest this morning
under a nearly zonal flow aloft. This westerly flow is bringing
in some high level moisture and clouds to our area while
conditions at the surface remain relatively calm. Elsewhere, a
pacific trough is just beginning to edge its way into the pacific
northwest and will begin to influence our weather pattern come
later this week.

Temperatures will once again warm above average today as a weak
shortwave approaches from our west. While 850 mb temperatures
should hold steady through this afternoon, additional cloud cover
from the approaching wave could help cool temperatures a degree or
two from yesterday mainly across south central arizona. By late
tonight and into tomorrow morning, the shortwave will create a
broad area of lift over arizona. This combined with a bit of
elevated moisture over our area (pws ~ 1.0 inches) will bring the
possibly of some very light showers to the lower desert of south
central az and areas to the east. However, below 10kft the
atmosphere will be very dry so many of these showers will likely
evaporate before reaching the ground. 500 mb temperatures will
also be dropping overnight with the coldest air settling over az
by early Thursday morning. This will act to destabilize the
atmosphere so wouldn't be too surprised to hear a rumble or two of
thunder during Thursday morning if enough moisture is available.

This disturbance will quickly move off to our east by late
Thursday afternoon reducing the threat of showers to near 0.

Behind this, drier air will begin filtering in and the
aforementioned pacific trough will be quickly approaching the
desert southwest. Unfortunately, the atmosphere with be rather dry
(pws ~ 0.5 inches) when this trough and its associated dynamics
move overhead come late Friday. Therefore, no precipitation is
expected. The biggest change will be the cooler temperatures come
Friday and Saturday with some breezy conditions, mainly in se
california. Beyond this, global circulation models are in good
agreement of rebuilding high pressure across the SW us bringing a
warming trend to our area starting Sunday. Guidance suggest
temperatures could warm 8 to 12 degrees above normal come early
next week with highs pushing the upper 90s here in phoenix!

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl, and
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
minimal aviation impacts will exist through Thursday morning as only
mid high clouds gradually thicken. Virga will be common over central
arizona Thursday morning with more notable showers possible well
north and east of terminal sites. Daily wind shifts should occur
slightly earlier than Tuesday, while speeds once again stay below
15kt.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Friday through Tuesday:
temperatures hovering near average over the weekend will rebound
back close to 10f above normal for the first half of next week. High
pressure and dry air will become locked over the districts ensuring
no chance of rain. Afternoon minimum humidity levels in a 10-20%
range over the weekend will fall into the single digits next week
while overnight recovery deteriorates from good down to poor to fair
levels. Gusty winds may be common over the weekend especially down
the lower colorado river valley, but should remain well below any
critical thresholds.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Wilson
aviation... Mo
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair78°F46°F33%1013.2 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi58 minN 410.00 miFair82°F41°F23%1012.8 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi60 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F48°F35%1012.8 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi56 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F48°F39%1015.2 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi2 hrsNNE 340.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F44°F36%1014.9 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi55 minNE 310.00 miFair78°F43°F30%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmSE5E43S5S5SW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE5SE7
G14
4SE9
G15
E5E6SE5SW5SW3CalmN5N6NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW55Calm333SW5SW4W3NW3N6N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.