Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:18PM Monday October 15, 2018 3:53 AM PDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 245 Am Pdt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..From point mugu to santa Monica and S of palos verdes, ne winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt becoming ne 10 to 20 kt late. Elsewhere, ne winds 15 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. SW swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..From point mugu to santa Monica, N winds 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
PZZ600 245 Am Pdt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt, a 1012 mb low was located along the coast between Monterey and eureka with a 1032 mb high over idaho. Gusty offshore winds and associated wind waves will will affect portions of the coastal waters south of point conception today and Tuesday. Local gale force gusts will affect the inner coastal waters S of ventura.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange, CA
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location: 33.82, -117.88     debug


Area Discussion for - San Diego, CA
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Fxus66 ksgx 150411 aaa
afdsgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service san diego ca
910 pm pdt Sun oct 14 2018

Synopsis
Some patchy stratus may occur late this evening along the coast.

From late tonight through Tuesday, a santa ana weather pattern will
bring strong gusty northeast winds to the mountains, valleys and
even some coastal areas, along with low humidity and higher
temperatures. The offshore flow will be much weaker Wednesday
through Friday, but dry warm weather will continue. Upper low
pressure could bring a few clouds this weekend.

Discussion For extreme southwestern california including orange...

san diego... Western riverside and southwestern san bernardino
counties...

evening update: made an update this evening to add a wind advisory
for Monday for the coachella valley, san diego county deserts, san
gorgonio pass, and coastal san diego county. The winds in the desert
will be strongest below the south facing slopes and could even
approach wind advisory level (45 mph) in the coachella valley. The
winds in coastal san diego county will be strongest (35-40 mph)
north of encinitas towards camp pendleton where santa ana wind will
surface out of the northeast. Winds will likely remain below
advisory level in the city of san diego although still gusty at
times throughout the day Monday.

Have also added blowing dust in areas of strong winds especially for
the northern inland empire where blowing dust could create impacts
to travel during the strongest winds. There could also be some
blowing dust sand concerns in the lower deserts immediately below
the south facing slopes.

Other than the above changes the forecast remains on track with a
strong offshore gradient developing late tonight, continuing through
Tuesday. The strongest winds will be likely late tonight through
Monday, although periods of strong winds will be likely through
Tuesday although not quite as strong. The strongest winds will be
likely below the cajon pass and in the santa ana mountains where
gusts as high as 80 mph will be possible in the more remote
locations, and gusts of 60 mph are forecast for populated areas,
which could cause damage to trees and property.

The remainder of the previous forecaster discussion issued at 200 pm
Sunday afternoon remains valid below:
the big change will occur late tonight and early Monday as a santa
ana wind event develops. Winds will gradually increase from the
northern mountain crests a little after midnight tonight south and
southwest through the coastal foothills and valleys, including
through and below passes and canyons. Winds likely will not arrive
in the san diego county valleys until after sunrise Monday.

Strongest support aloft will be late tonight and Monday morning,
with high-resolution models, including the local WRF and cansac wrf,
indicating gust potential between 70 and 80 mph in the strongest
locations, mainly below cajon pass and in the santa ana mountains in
the 4 am-noon pdt time range Monday. San diego county should have
somewhat weaker winds than farther north, with peak gust potential
around 50-55 mph in strongest locations. There will be much less
support for strong winds Monday night and Tuesday, but local gusts
over 50 mph will still be possible Tuesday morning. Humidity will be
low due to the offshore flow, below 10 percent at times.

Temperatures will be higher once the offshore flow arrives with
mostly 80s west of the mountains starting Monday.

The upper low which will move through the region from north to south
Monday will remain over the SW us the rest of the week, with the
interior SW being the most likely location of the low. This will
keep us on the back side of the low with NE flow aloft and mostly
weak offshore flow at the surface. Some model runs have the upper
low moving west towards so-cal or northern baja next weekend which
could enhance the offshore flow again, though that is dependent on
the track of the low. Some moisture wraps around the low, based on
the 12z GFS solution, and that could even bring some precipitation.

12z ECMWF has some precip just to the north and east of our area.

Have not added any precip for next weekend, but if models continue
to show some precip in or near our forecast area, then I will add
that to the forecast package Monday. MOS guidance shows it could be
quite warm next weekend with 90s possible west of the mountains
based on GFS mos.

Aviation
150200z... .Coastal low clouds will develop after 05z tonight with
bases near 2500 ft msl and spreading 15-20 miles inland, then a slow
clearing around 10-11z once offshore winds develop. N-ne winds will
strengthen tonight with sfc gusts 35-45 kt on the coastal mountain
slopes and through and below the passes after 06z, then increasing
to 45-55 kt by Monday morning and spreading into the valleys and
orange county coastal plain. Llws likely at sbd, kont, and ksna
Monday morning prior to winds surfacing. Stg-svr uddfs likely over
and S SW of the mountains. Gusty sfc winds will continue into
Tuesday and begin to diminish Tuesday evening.

Marine
Northeast wind gusts to around 20 kt possible near and northeast of
san clemente island Monday morning through Monday evening. No
hazardous marine weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

Fire weather
Critical fire weather conditions will occur at least Monday and
Tuesday due to the santa ana winds. Fuels which will be initially
wet from the recent rains should dry out Monday as humidity will be
10 percent or less in most low elevation locations, combined with
winds 20-40 mph with local gusts 55-75 mph (santa ana mtns and
inland empire). Strongest winds will be Monday morning with winds
somewhat weaker Tuesday. Mostly lighter winds are expected Wednesday
through Friday, though humidity will stay low.

Skywarn
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Sgx watches warnings advisories
Ca... Red flag warning from 3 am Monday to 8 pm pdt Tuesday for orange
county coastal areas-orange county inland areas-riverside
county mountains-including the san jacinto ranger district
of the san bernardino national forest-san bernardino county
mountains-including the mountain top and front country
ranger districts of the san bernardino national forest-san
bernardino and riverside county valleys -the inland empire-
san diego county inland valleys-san diego county mountains-
including the palomar and descanso ranger districts of the
cleveland national forest-santa ana mountains-including the
trabuco ranger district of the cleveland national forest.

Wind advisory until 8 pm pdt Monday for coachella valley-san
diego county deserts-san gorgonio pass near banning.

High wind warning until 3 pm pdt Monday for orange county inland
areas-san bernardino county mountains-san bernardino and
riverside county valleys-the inland empire-santa ana
mountains and foothills.

Beach hazards statement until 10 pm pdt this evening for orange
county coastal areas-san diego county coastal areas.

Wind advisory from 6 am to 6 pm pdt Monday for san diego county
coastal areas.

Pz... None.

Public fire weather... Maxwell jmb
aviation marine beaches... Connolly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRJC1 17 mi35 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1
PFXC1 18 mi35 min N 2.9 G 2.9 63°F
PSXC1 19 mi35 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9
46256 19 mi53 min 65°F4 ft
BAXC1 19 mi35 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1
PFDC1 20 mi35 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1
PXAC1 21 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 2.9
AGXC1 21 mi35 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1016.2 hPa
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 22 mi35 min 65°F1016.1 hPa
46253 23 mi23 min 65°F3 ft
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 27 mi53 min 67°F2 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi35 min E 1 G 1 62°F 64°F1016.4 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 40 mi53 min 67°F3 ft
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 48 mi55 min 65°F3 ft
46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045) 49 mi53 min 67°F3 ft

Wind History for Los Angeles Pier J, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA6 mi60 minN 08.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1015.5 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA9 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F57°F96%1016.2 hPa
John Wayne-Orange County Airport, CA10 mi60 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F57°F84%1015.6 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA14 mi60 minN 08.00 miFair61°F59°F93%1016 hPa
Corona Airport, CA16 mi57 minNE 910.00 miFair68°F27°F21%1017.7 hPa
Chino, Chino Airport, CA16 mi60 minVar 6 G 216.00 miFair with Haze73°F18°F12%1015.8 hPa
Ontario International Airport, CA22 mi60 minENE 20 G 3110.00 miBlowing Dust in Vicinity and Breezy70°F18°F14%1015.1 hPa
Riverside Municipal Airport, CA24 mi60 minNNE 9 G 1810.00 miFair68°F19°F15%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from FUL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmW64W6W6W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW45S4S7E7SE4SE43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4Calm4SW565W7SW12W74SW7W6S6E3N4CalmCalmCalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Los Patos (highway bridge), California
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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Mon -- 05:27 AM PDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM PDT     1.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:57 PM PDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM PDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:29 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.522.52.72.92.82.52.122.12.42.83.23.63.73.63.32.92.31.71.20.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Ana River entrance (inside), California
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Santa Ana River entrance (inside)
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Mon -- 04:50 AM PDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM PDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:20 PM PDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:28 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:58 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.91.31.61.81.91.71.30.90.70.711.52.12.42.42.32.11.81.410.70.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Diego, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.