Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 5:22 AM   Moonset 8:05 PM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1149 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1149 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the area into Thursday while a surface trough extends across the carolinas. Modest sw winds could near small craft advisory levels at times, especially Thursday. A cold front accompanied with strong and possibly severe convection will move through the area late Thursday into Friday. Cooler and drier air will then return to start the weekend with high pressure prevailing.

FXUS62 KILM 081801 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 201 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected through Wednesday. A cold front moves through late in the work week bringing a better chance of rain and possible strong to severe storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier and cooler conditions for the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE
Latest update from SPC now has entire CWA in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. However, the messaging hasn't changed. Storms will struggle to develop with some dry air aloft, but any storms that DO develop have a chance of building quickly and becoming severe with plenty of instability in the area. Best timeframe will be between 5pm and 10pm, and mainly along/west of I-95, with strong winds and hail possible.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Upper ridging to dominate today with WNW to NW flow aloft. Other than cirrus, and midday and aftn cu field, a good dose of insolation is expected. Guidance supports widespread 90+ degree readings across the ILM CWA ILM is the 1 location across the ILM CWA that may actually have a shot to eclipse their record high of 92 set in both 2002 and 2014. Look for 80s for highs at the area beaches due to a pinned sea breeze. Pinned because, wind directions(WNW-NW) and decent speeds aloft will prevent a full outward progression inland. The upper ridging flattens across the area tonight with respectable westerly flow aloft becoming dominant. The flow aloft is important with convection expected to develop or be ongoing well upstream at the start of this period. Will likely have convection develop along the west/central Carolinas sfc trof later today that progresses to the Eastern Carolinas this aftn/evening. Overnight, activity that may have crossed the Appalachians pushes eastward and likely will affect the Eastern Carolinas during the pre-dawn Thu hrs. At this point, have indicated POPs ranging from lowest (less than 10%) southern ILM CWA, to highest across northern ILM CWA (25-35%). The convective activity will be in clusters or possibly in the form of a MCS/MCC as they track within the mean flow. SPC indicates strong to possibly severe with hail and damaging wind gusts the primary concerns. Will see widespread balmy 70s for tonights lows but should be accompanied by an active SW wind, except SSW becoming SW along the coast due to the demise of the sea breeze.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mid level ridge overhead Thursday will be flattening, its heights lowered by strongly positively tilted trough diving south across Great Lakes/OH Valley. A prefrontal trough will stall to our north, likely keeping most of the convection along its length. Better dynamics will be collocated with the boundary and the main severe weather threat will be across the northern half of NC. A fairly deep presentation of 7 C/Km lapse rates will offer moderately strong instability, but LCL's are still looking pretty high for widespread storm across most of the CWA, the exception being far nrn zones. Even as storms train eastward to our north there doesn't seem enough of a southerly low level flow component to get the storm propagation vectors this far south (well illustrated by the 00Z WRF run). Friday may turn out more active as the synoptic front sags southward though with increased cloud cover our lapse rates start to weaken. This should be offset at least in part to some actual dynamics in the form of height falls and DPVA. In the end both days appear to offer a severe threat, Thursday's with more instability and Friday's with better dynamics. Impressive drying slated for Friday night as PWs drop from 1.5" to 0.40".

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Significant airmass change over the weekend with temperatures knocked back down to normal and dewpoints some 20 degrees lower than the previous days. The latter especially allowing for some slightly cool nights. Moisture recovery late in the period looks pretty gradual as high pressure moves offshore. It may be more pronounced if the solutions such as the GFS that depict a stronger southern branch comes to pass, but the solutions showing a weaker Gulf Coast jet look more seasonably appropriate. Either way some light rain appears slated for the last day of the period if not the last two.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Predominantly VFR through this TAF period. Breezy SW winds will weaken around sunset. There is still a chance for thunderstorms to move into the area late afternoon/early evening (around 21z-2z), mainly along and west of I-95, but confidence is low in terms of where any storms may impact. Have a few hours of VCTS at KLBT during this timeframe. Any storms that do develop may produce hail and/or strong winds. A second round of precipitation possible overnight into tomorrow morning as a cluster of storms weakens as they approach our area, with fairly low chance of thunder.

On Thursday, may be lingering cloudiness in the morning due to any overnight activity. There is a chance for ceilings to be MVFR across inland southeast NC early Thursday, but not confident enough to include in TAFs at this time. Southwest winds will be breezy tomorrow, with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible towards end of TAF period. Thunderstorm chances pick up again tomorrow afternoon, though at this time confidence is low in timing and coverage so have only included VCTS for inland TAF sites for now.

Extended Outlook...Threat of more widespread strong convection with periodic flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri ahead of a strong CFP. High pressure to prevail late Fri into the weekend with VFR dominating.

MARINE
Through Tonight...The sfc pg between center of high pressure well offshore from the SE States Coast and the inland Carolinas sfc trof, will result in SW winds increasing to 15 to occasionally 20 kt during this period. Will see occasional gusts to around 25 kt . However, the lack of frequency and coverage will keep an SCA from being issued at this time. Seas will respond building to 3 to 4 ft, with 5 footers across the ILM NC Waters. The wind wave at 4 to 6 seconds will dominate the seas spectrum with a continued underlying small Easterly swell at 10+ sec periods.

Thursday through Sunday Night...Prefrontal flow regime will feature a moderate gradient on Thursday. We may be close to SCA criteria with winds but gusts only at this point. Have held off on hoisting adv esp since NWPS seas have backed off by about a foot, now keeping 6 ft waves mostly out of the picture.
Additionally, swell energy appears minimal inside of 20nm, the long SSW fetch keeping the longer period waves offshore. Winds start to veer Friday as front approaches from the NW, its passage slated for evening time. OFfshore flow is then expected for the remainder of the period, once again minimizing swell energy vs wind waves.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056.
MARINE...None.

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Holden Beach
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Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     -1.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM EDT     -1.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     6.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonset
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Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Wed -- 03:22 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:25 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:38 PM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet

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