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FXUS62 KCAE 290009 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 809 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure centered northeast of the region will remain in control through Monday along with a warming trend. A weak front is expected to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly northern and eastern areas. Above normal temperatures persist into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Satellite observations as of 8pm show clearing across the forecast area with weak high pressure continuing to ridge over the forecast area. HiRes guidance does point to the potential of some patchy stratus and maybe even some fog late tonight into early Monday morning. Fairly persistent forecast with lows in the mid-50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday and Monday Night: Generally quiet weather expected with an upper ridge axis over the forecast area. All of the active weather remains off to the northwest as a series of shortwaves move through the western OH and MS/TN Valleys on the west side of the upper ridge. Atmospheric moisture over our area with be slightly lower on Monday compared to today with PWATs falling below an inch through the day as low level flow shifts from southeasterly to more south or southwesterly. Due to low level moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion, would not be surprised to see some stratus in the morning. However, once any stratus burns off there should be some sunshine through the afternoon. Model forecast soundings indicate a strong subsidence inversion around 850mb which will limit instability. 850mb temps should warm a couple of degrees and with more sunshine this should result in warmer max temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Dry weather continues Monday night with slightly warmer overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. It would not be surprising to see some predawn stratus develop along the Coastal Plain and move into the forecast area early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Ensemble and global guidance is in reasonable agreement bringing shortwave energy into the forecast area from the TN Valley late Tuesday and Tuesday night which will bring an increase in rain chances. There are some timing differences among the faster GFS and slower ECWMF but this shortwave trough is forecast to amplify a bit as it moves into the area with the existing upper ridge shifting offshore and another upper ridge building over the MS Valley in response to deep upper troughing over the intermountain west by Tuesday night.

Atmospheric moisture is forecast to increase to slightly above normal on Tuesday combining with upper forcing that moves in later in the afternoon to support at least scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region into Tuesday night. Deep southwesterly flow should yield some instability but the degree of instability may depend on how long it takes to erode the capping inversion around 700mb, and nevertheless should support possible thunderstorms, though the chance of severe thunderstorms seems unlikely.

Temperatures should warm further with max temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the upper 50s west to lower 60s east with lingering cloud cover and possible showers.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
There is somewhat lower confidence in rain chances on Wednesday as the slow moving upper trough traverses toward the coast due to timing issues with the guidance. Kept some low pops across the eastern Midlands, lower CSRA and Pee Dee region to account for possible slower timing. The western portion of the forecast area should have lower chances as some drier air begins to work into the region with a weak surface front/trough slowly pushing through the area by Wednesday evening.

Ensemble guidance is consistent in showing another shortwave ridge building over the forecast area on Thursday and persisting into Friday with forecast soundings showing a strong subsidence inversion around 700mb. This will support continued above normal temperatures through the extended forecast period.
Chances of rain will increase again over the weekend as shortwave energy from the west effectively weakens the upper ridge and 500mb flow becomes more zonal in nature giving way to additional shortwaves interacting with above normal moisture resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the amount of instability available over the weekend, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out and CSU ML probabilities are highlighting a potential threat, although confidence remains low this far out. Wednesday through Friday look to be the warmest days of the period with highs in the mid to upper 80s and cannot totally rule out a 90 degree reading, but with increased moisture and clouds and possible storms over the weekend, highs should be slightly cooler.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Vfr to start the period, then possible ifr/lifr ceilings in stratus before sunrise on Monday before a return to vfr through the day.

With loss of heating this evening, clouds are dissipating and skies becoming mostly clear. These conditions are expected to continue until around 09z. Between 10z and 13z, guidance is beginning to indicate the development of a low stratus deck moving into the Savannah River Region. Confidence is increasing at ags/dnl for the development of ifr/lifr conditions between 10z-13z, and have gone with a predominant lifr group at those sites for that period. Further east in the Midlands guidance is showing cae/cub/ogb more on the edge of the developing stratus, so confidence is somewhat lower at those sites. As such have only gone with a tempo period for now at those locations between 10z-12z. Will continue to monitor later guidance and adjust if needed. Winds light to calm overnight, then increase out of the south through the day generally around 5 to 8 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in early morning fog or stratus. Then there is at least a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday onward.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:55 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonset
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Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
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Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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