Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utting, AZ
March 19, 2024 5:48 AM MST (12:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 6:49 PM Moonrise 1:48 PM Moonset 3:57 AM |
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 191133 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 433 AM MST Tue Mar 19 2024
UPDATE
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Weakening low pressure will once again bring rain chances to parts of the Desert Southwest this afternoon before the system finally exits the region by Wednesday. High pressure will then take over for the remainder of the week, ushering in the return of dry and tranquil conditions while promoting above-normal temperatures through at least the start of the weekend. Cooler and more unsettled conditions are likely to return by the end of this weekend/start of next week.
DISCUSSION
Early morning upper-air analysis reveals the persistent upper-low continuing to spin over the Desert Southwest, with the center of circulation now focused over the Imperial Valley. This system's westerly retrograde has ceased, and it will again push east as we go through the day today. With eastern parts of our CWA still likely to be under the influence of positive vorticity advection, and with models continuing to favor a decent regional moisture profile, showers and thunderstorms will once again be a possibility (20-40%) this afternoon across northern and eastern Maricopa County and southern Gila County, with greater chances over high terrain locations just outside of our forecast area. Hi- res guidance continues to show relatively high SBCAPE values for these areas (200-400 J/kg) along with 0-6 km shear values between 25-50 kts, resulting in an environment favorable for the development of multicellular convection, and even a marginal chance of a supercell. However, due to the weakening trend of the aforementioned low, the amount of upper-level forcing available will likely be a limiting factor for how much robust convection occurs.
Nonetheless, isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, and small hail are expected over the previously mentioned areas. Any additional rainfall will be light (0.01-0.10")
barring any heavier activity which could result in locally higher totals.
Enhanced atmospheric moisture will not be limited to only high terrain areas of south-central Arizona. Global models show above- average moisture levels stretching across the lower desert regions, which will promote destabilization when combined with abundant daytime heating this afternoon. Hi-res guidance shows forecasted SBCAPE values ranging from 100-300 J/kg across southwestern Arizona and southeastern California, which may allow for a few, very isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas around enhanced terrain features. As for the Phoenix metro, a similar situation is expected to play out. Instability over the Valley will be the highest across the region, with SBCAPE values approaching 500 J/kg, though widespread thunderstorm activity is unlikely given that the axis of greatest lift will be just off to the east by the time peak solar heating takes place. However, given the unstable environment, isolated convective activity popping over high terrain features such as the Estrella Mtns and the White Tanks is possible (10-20%) this afternoon. QPF totals from these showers or storms will be minimal, with most areas likely seeing less than 0.10".
Temperatures over the next several days will continue their upward trend as the long-lived low pressure system continues to weaken before finally moving out of the region by Wednesday. Temperatures this afternoon across the lower deserts will range between the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, warming to the upper 70s to mid 80s by Wednesday as high pressure takes over for the remainder of the week.
By Thursday, many locations will likely experience their warmest temperatures so far this year with NBM MaxT forecasts calling for widespread afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s for lower elevation communities. Although probabilities of reaching 90 degrees for areas in and around the Imperial Valley have dropped slightly since yesterday morning, a 20-40% chance of reaching that mark for the first time this year remains.
The aforementioned high pressure will usher in a much more tranquil pattern for the rest of this week and at least into the start of this weekend, but global ensembles depict another potent trough impacting much of the western CONUS by the end of the weekend which would likely result in a quick pivot back towards wetter and cooler conditions across the Desert Southwest. Ensembles are in good agreement regarding this systems evolution, with only subtle differences in strength, orientation, and timing, so this will be something to keep an eye on going forward.
AVIATION
Updated at 0550Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern through the TAF period will be the potential for the development of isolated-scattered showers/storms and gusty winds from any outflows this afternoon and early evening. Current thinking is that the terminals are safe from any need for VCSH mention, as chances are too low (<20%). Any robust convection is likely to remain anchored to the higher terrain features (e.g. the Estrella's) in the immediate metro area. Light and variable winds through the overnight hours should turn easterly by mid-morning. All sites will then do their typical diurnal switch to westerly this afternoon. Depending on shower/thunderstorm activity during the early afternoon hours, there could be outflows that could enhance the westerly flow prior to a stronger outflow signal turning winds out of the north during the early evening hours. With any outflow, particularly if the convection early this afternoon is robust, gusty winds could reach the 20-25 kt range for brief periods. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT CU clouds developing during the afternoon hours with bases aoa 7-8 kft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds at both terminals will remain light, aob 5 kt, through the TAF period. At KBLH, current northeasterly winds will become variable later this morning before going westerly late Tuesday afternoon. At KIPL, current westerly winds will become northwesterly late Tuesday morning and then go back westerly Tuesday evening. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period, with FEW CU clouds developing tomorrow afternoon with bases aoa 8 kft.
FIRE WEATHER
Low pressure will continue to promote chances for showers and storms across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts, with very slight chances of an isolated shower or thunderstorm around enhanced terrain features of the western districts. Winds outside of any thunderstorm activity will be light with occasional afternoon breeziness. MinRH values over the next few days will remain above 20-25% before decreasing later this week as high pressure sets in. Temperatures will hover right around normal today before quickly warming to above seasonal normals during the latter portion of the week.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 433 AM MST Tue Mar 19 2024
UPDATE
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Weakening low pressure will once again bring rain chances to parts of the Desert Southwest this afternoon before the system finally exits the region by Wednesday. High pressure will then take over for the remainder of the week, ushering in the return of dry and tranquil conditions while promoting above-normal temperatures through at least the start of the weekend. Cooler and more unsettled conditions are likely to return by the end of this weekend/start of next week.
DISCUSSION
Early morning upper-air analysis reveals the persistent upper-low continuing to spin over the Desert Southwest, with the center of circulation now focused over the Imperial Valley. This system's westerly retrograde has ceased, and it will again push east as we go through the day today. With eastern parts of our CWA still likely to be under the influence of positive vorticity advection, and with models continuing to favor a decent regional moisture profile, showers and thunderstorms will once again be a possibility (20-40%) this afternoon across northern and eastern Maricopa County and southern Gila County, with greater chances over high terrain locations just outside of our forecast area. Hi- res guidance continues to show relatively high SBCAPE values for these areas (200-400 J/kg) along with 0-6 km shear values between 25-50 kts, resulting in an environment favorable for the development of multicellular convection, and even a marginal chance of a supercell. However, due to the weakening trend of the aforementioned low, the amount of upper-level forcing available will likely be a limiting factor for how much robust convection occurs.
Nonetheless, isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, and small hail are expected over the previously mentioned areas. Any additional rainfall will be light (0.01-0.10")
barring any heavier activity which could result in locally higher totals.
Enhanced atmospheric moisture will not be limited to only high terrain areas of south-central Arizona. Global models show above- average moisture levels stretching across the lower desert regions, which will promote destabilization when combined with abundant daytime heating this afternoon. Hi-res guidance shows forecasted SBCAPE values ranging from 100-300 J/kg across southwestern Arizona and southeastern California, which may allow for a few, very isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas around enhanced terrain features. As for the Phoenix metro, a similar situation is expected to play out. Instability over the Valley will be the highest across the region, with SBCAPE values approaching 500 J/kg, though widespread thunderstorm activity is unlikely given that the axis of greatest lift will be just off to the east by the time peak solar heating takes place. However, given the unstable environment, isolated convective activity popping over high terrain features such as the Estrella Mtns and the White Tanks is possible (10-20%) this afternoon. QPF totals from these showers or storms will be minimal, with most areas likely seeing less than 0.10".
Temperatures over the next several days will continue their upward trend as the long-lived low pressure system continues to weaken before finally moving out of the region by Wednesday. Temperatures this afternoon across the lower deserts will range between the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, warming to the upper 70s to mid 80s by Wednesday as high pressure takes over for the remainder of the week.
By Thursday, many locations will likely experience their warmest temperatures so far this year with NBM MaxT forecasts calling for widespread afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s for lower elevation communities. Although probabilities of reaching 90 degrees for areas in and around the Imperial Valley have dropped slightly since yesterday morning, a 20-40% chance of reaching that mark for the first time this year remains.
The aforementioned high pressure will usher in a much more tranquil pattern for the rest of this week and at least into the start of this weekend, but global ensembles depict another potent trough impacting much of the western CONUS by the end of the weekend which would likely result in a quick pivot back towards wetter and cooler conditions across the Desert Southwest. Ensembles are in good agreement regarding this systems evolution, with only subtle differences in strength, orientation, and timing, so this will be something to keep an eye on going forward.
AVIATION
Updated at 0550Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern through the TAF period will be the potential for the development of isolated-scattered showers/storms and gusty winds from any outflows this afternoon and early evening. Current thinking is that the terminals are safe from any need for VCSH mention, as chances are too low (<20%). Any robust convection is likely to remain anchored to the higher terrain features (e.g. the Estrella's) in the immediate metro area. Light and variable winds through the overnight hours should turn easterly by mid-morning. All sites will then do their typical diurnal switch to westerly this afternoon. Depending on shower/thunderstorm activity during the early afternoon hours, there could be outflows that could enhance the westerly flow prior to a stronger outflow signal turning winds out of the north during the early evening hours. With any outflow, particularly if the convection early this afternoon is robust, gusty winds could reach the 20-25 kt range for brief periods. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT CU clouds developing during the afternoon hours with bases aoa 7-8 kft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds at both terminals will remain light, aob 5 kt, through the TAF period. At KBLH, current northeasterly winds will become variable later this morning before going westerly late Tuesday afternoon. At KIPL, current westerly winds will become northwesterly late Tuesday morning and then go back westerly Tuesday evening. FEW-SCT high clouds are anticipated through the TAF period, with FEW CU clouds developing tomorrow afternoon with bases aoa 8 kft.
FIRE WEATHER
Low pressure will continue to promote chances for showers and storms across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts, with very slight chances of an isolated shower or thunderstorm around enhanced terrain features of the western districts. Winds outside of any thunderstorm activity will be light with occasional afternoon breeziness. MinRH values over the next few days will remain above 20-25% before decreasing later this week as high pressure sets in. Temperatures will hover right around normal today before quickly warming to above seasonal normals during the latter portion of the week.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Airport Reports
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