Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utting, AZ
May 18, 2024 4:51 PM MST (23:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 3:15 PM Moonset 2:53 AM |
FXUS65 KPSR 182343 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 443 PM MST Sat May 18 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
A weather disturbance will slide primarily north of the region early next week allowing temperatures to retreat closer to the seasonal normal. This system will also encourage occasionally breezier conditions during the afternoon and evening hours with Monday having the strongest winds and greatest impacts. Very tranquil weather with near normal temperatures will prevail during the second half of the week.
DISCUSSION
Local shortwave ridging was being eroded and dislodged eastward early this afternoon as a well defined vorticity center and associated subtropical jet core punches into the SW Conus. This negative PV center can be linked to a portion of the base of a central Pacific Rex block which is currently in the process of decaying. While this block has resulted in a split flow regime over the western US, the resumption of more progressive flow early next week will allow the southern circulation center of the block to phase with northern stream Gulf of Alaska energy into a full latitudinal western trough. Although this energy will eject into the plains during the middle of the week, some measure of broad, low amplitude troughing should be maintained across the western Conus the remainder of the week.
Over the next 24-48 hours, anti-cyclonic and subsident midtropospheric flow will be replaced by a weakly cyclonic pattern with H5 heights gradually falling ahead of the aforementioned incoming shortwave. With excellent model agreement and narrow guidance spread, this evolution will shave a few degrees from a persistence forecast Sunday, then more so Monday where readings will have retreated to near the seasonal normal. With exceptionally dry air precluding any rainfall chances, strong gusty winds will be the greatest concern and impact, as well timed height falls, a tightened pressure gradient along a frontal boundary, and midlevel jet energy become coincident over the forecast area Monday afternoon. Although gusts 20-30 mph will become common as early as Sunday afternoon, more pronounced gusts 25-40 mph appear likely Monday as mechanical mixing taps 25-35kt winds in the H8-H7 layer. Unfortunately, recent changes in mandated NBM initialization have degraded deterministic wind forecasts with a distinct low bias at lower elevations, however NBM probabilities reveal greater chances of a far stronger outcome with better than a 75% chance of advisory criteria being met across much of SE California. While not as intense as SE California, stronger gusts into south-central Arizona will result in a heightened fire danger when combined with low humidity levels and receptive fuels.
From midweek through the weekend, a near persistence forecast appears most applicable as the region oscillates between flat ridging and low amplitude shortwaves passing north through the Great Basin. During this time frame, H5 heights should waver little in a narrow range of 576-580dm with minimal uncertainty among NAEFS membership. Thus, forecast confidence is very good depicting steady daily temperatures not terribly far from climatology with dry air continuing to dominate the region. Deep mechanical mixing will also continue to tap momentum above the H7 layer resulting in frequent afternoon/early evening gustiness, however there is little evidence from NBM probabilities of anything much more than 20-30 mph gusts, sans the typically windiest locations of far SW Imperial County.
AVIATION
Updated at 2345Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period under clear skies. Wind directions will exhibit their typical diurnal tendencies, with afternoon and early evening breeziness out of the WSW. The SE switch will take hold between 08-10Z at KPHX, with sustained speeds overnight remaining aob 8 kt across all the terminals after winds decrease later this evening.
Speeds are expected to be slightly lower (i.e., gusts peaking around 20 kt) tomorrow than those observed so far this afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns, aside from gusty winds, are anticipated over the next 24 hours under clear skies. Wind directions will remain WSW at KIPL through the period, whereas directions will favor SW to S at KBLH through much of the period.
Gusts to between 25-30 kt are expected at both terminals through at least the next few hours, with the elevated winds at KIPL remaining later into the evening than at KBLH. Gusts are expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon at both terminals.
FIRE WEATHER
A disturbance moving mostly north of the districts early next week will force temperatures to cool closer to the seasonal normal while also producing a period of strong, gusty winds. Throughout the week, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into the single digits at lower elevations and the teens across higher terrain areas. This will follow poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40%. Widespread wind gusts as high as 30-35 mph may be common Monday afternoon yielding an extended period of near critical thresholds when combined with low RH and dry fine fuels. Land managers should be cautious for rapid, uncontrolled spread of any ongoing fires or new starts Monday. Otherwise, afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph should be more representative the remainder of the week resulting in a slightly elevated fire danger.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 443 PM MST Sat May 18 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
A weather disturbance will slide primarily north of the region early next week allowing temperatures to retreat closer to the seasonal normal. This system will also encourage occasionally breezier conditions during the afternoon and evening hours with Monday having the strongest winds and greatest impacts. Very tranquil weather with near normal temperatures will prevail during the second half of the week.
DISCUSSION
Local shortwave ridging was being eroded and dislodged eastward early this afternoon as a well defined vorticity center and associated subtropical jet core punches into the SW Conus. This negative PV center can be linked to a portion of the base of a central Pacific Rex block which is currently in the process of decaying. While this block has resulted in a split flow regime over the western US, the resumption of more progressive flow early next week will allow the southern circulation center of the block to phase with northern stream Gulf of Alaska energy into a full latitudinal western trough. Although this energy will eject into the plains during the middle of the week, some measure of broad, low amplitude troughing should be maintained across the western Conus the remainder of the week.
Over the next 24-48 hours, anti-cyclonic and subsident midtropospheric flow will be replaced by a weakly cyclonic pattern with H5 heights gradually falling ahead of the aforementioned incoming shortwave. With excellent model agreement and narrow guidance spread, this evolution will shave a few degrees from a persistence forecast Sunday, then more so Monday where readings will have retreated to near the seasonal normal. With exceptionally dry air precluding any rainfall chances, strong gusty winds will be the greatest concern and impact, as well timed height falls, a tightened pressure gradient along a frontal boundary, and midlevel jet energy become coincident over the forecast area Monday afternoon. Although gusts 20-30 mph will become common as early as Sunday afternoon, more pronounced gusts 25-40 mph appear likely Monday as mechanical mixing taps 25-35kt winds in the H8-H7 layer. Unfortunately, recent changes in mandated NBM initialization have degraded deterministic wind forecasts with a distinct low bias at lower elevations, however NBM probabilities reveal greater chances of a far stronger outcome with better than a 75% chance of advisory criteria being met across much of SE California. While not as intense as SE California, stronger gusts into south-central Arizona will result in a heightened fire danger when combined with low humidity levels and receptive fuels.
From midweek through the weekend, a near persistence forecast appears most applicable as the region oscillates between flat ridging and low amplitude shortwaves passing north through the Great Basin. During this time frame, H5 heights should waver little in a narrow range of 576-580dm with minimal uncertainty among NAEFS membership. Thus, forecast confidence is very good depicting steady daily temperatures not terribly far from climatology with dry air continuing to dominate the region. Deep mechanical mixing will also continue to tap momentum above the H7 layer resulting in frequent afternoon/early evening gustiness, however there is little evidence from NBM probabilities of anything much more than 20-30 mph gusts, sans the typically windiest locations of far SW Imperial County.
AVIATION
Updated at 2345Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period under clear skies. Wind directions will exhibit their typical diurnal tendencies, with afternoon and early evening breeziness out of the WSW. The SE switch will take hold between 08-10Z at KPHX, with sustained speeds overnight remaining aob 8 kt across all the terminals after winds decrease later this evening.
Speeds are expected to be slightly lower (i.e., gusts peaking around 20 kt) tomorrow than those observed so far this afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns, aside from gusty winds, are anticipated over the next 24 hours under clear skies. Wind directions will remain WSW at KIPL through the period, whereas directions will favor SW to S at KBLH through much of the period.
Gusts to between 25-30 kt are expected at both terminals through at least the next few hours, with the elevated winds at KIPL remaining later into the evening than at KBLH. Gusts are expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon at both terminals.
FIRE WEATHER
A disturbance moving mostly north of the districts early next week will force temperatures to cool closer to the seasonal normal while also producing a period of strong, gusty winds. Throughout the week, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into the single digits at lower elevations and the teens across higher terrain areas. This will follow poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40%. Widespread wind gusts as high as 30-35 mph may be common Monday afternoon yielding an extended period of near critical thresholds when combined with low RH and dry fine fuels. Land managers should be cautious for rapid, uncontrolled spread of any ongoing fires or new starts Monday. Otherwise, afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph should be more representative the remainder of the week resulting in a slightly elevated fire danger.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Yuma, AZ,
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