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FXUS62 KFFC 050157 AAB AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 957 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Evening Update

UPDATE
Issued at 935 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Isolated showers and storms are beginning to diminish this evening as instability wanes post-sunset. Have updated overnight PoPs in line with current trends, keeping a slight chance for showers/storms mainly along and north of I-85 as a weak shortwave trough passes overhead. Have also added patchy fog overnight across the majority of the forecast area given light to calm winds and relative humidity maxing out at 100%. In addition, less cirrus coverage than last night should allow for more radiational cooling.

Martin



SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

At a glance:

- Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday

- "Cooler" today across north and east Georgia, temperatures rebound tomorrow

Similar to yesterday, conditions at the lower levels remain relatively benign, with the western fringes of a surface high overspreading the Southeast. At the mid-levels, our train of shortwaves continues, packing a bit more oomph than yesterday thanks to meager negative tilts and slightly higher amplitudes.
After a brief lull following out rainy start to Saturday, expecting an uptick in afternoon convective activity both today and Sunday, aided partially by the shortwave trough axis swinging through. Thunderstorms today may become weakly organized into quasi-lines along any lingering outflow boundaries/new outflow boundaries from earliest storms, especially south of I-20.

MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for widespread severe weather; however, a few storms could become strong to marginally severe. On top of that, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the SPC's sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be slow-moving, and will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding.

Highs today will be slightly cooler than yesterday along and east of I-16/I-75 thanks to increased cloud cover and convective coverage, in the upper-60s to 70s. Elsewhere, expect another day in the 80s. Sunday, marginally unseasonably warm conditions return (5-8 degrees above average), with highs in the 70s for the higher elevations in northeast Georgia and in the 80s to near 90 everywhere else.

96



LONG TERM
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

As the extended period begins on Monday, a shortwave trough will continue to move northeastward through a quasi-zonal mid level flow pattern, from the Tennessee Valley towards the central Appalachians. As the axis of the shortwave moves north of Georgia, it will provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms will be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon hours. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for at least likely PoPs across the majority of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Some convective is also likely to lingering after sunset and into Monday night. Low-level wind shear and dynamic support appears that they will be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave as it passes north of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and into Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance southward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help increase PoPs and organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia.
With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast lending to plentiful SBCAPE and increased deep-layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather associated with convective complexes will need to be monitored for Thursday into Friday.

King



AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Have removed TEMPOs for TSRA at all TAF sites as confidence in convection at any one site is relatively low (although elsewhere across N and CNTRL GA, isolated TSRA are occurring). Expect FEW/SCT mid-level clouds (~060 to ~100) to stick around until lower CIGs arrive overnight. IFR CIGs and MVFR/IFR VIS are expected from ~09z to ~15z, with areas of lower CIGs /VIS PSBL.
Conditions will improve with a SCT/BKN low-VFR cloud deck tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light/VRB to calm overnight, increasing slightly to 3-8 kts out of the SSE to SSW tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Medium confidence on evolution of CIGs /VIS and timing/coverage of precip tomorrow. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 84 63 81 / 40 40 40 70 Atlanta 65 84 65 83 / 20 40 50 70 Blairsville 59 79 60 76 / 30 50 50 90 Cartersville 62 85 63 83 / 20 40 50 80 Columbus 66 88 67 88 / 20 30 30 50 Gainesville 63 82 64 80 / 30 50 50 80 Macon 65 86 66 84 / 30 40 40 70 Rome 62 86 63 85 / 30 40 50 80 Peachtree City 63 85 64 84 / 20 40 40 70 Vidalia 66 87 67 87 / 70 40 40 70

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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