Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX
March 19, 2024 5:28 AM CDT (10:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:49 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 1:53 PM Moonset 4:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 190835 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The Rex Block will begin to break down today with the ridge weakening over northern California and a forward, eastern movement of the upper low into Arizona. This will bring a 30 to 40 knot 500mb subtropical jet with southwesterly flow aloft. A surface low will develop this afternoon across far northeast New Mexico, ahead of a cold front in Kansas, bringing weak height falls and low end breezy southwest winds to the forecast area. Downsloping winds and mostly sunny skies through the day today will help to bring near normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tonight, temperatures were warmed a few degrees above the NBM and closer to MOS guidance given the continued southwesterly surface flow, along with insulation from a potential stream of high clouds with the approaching upper low.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
On Wednesday, an upper level will move east into New Mexico and large scale lift will begin to increase across West Texas with thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon and overnight. Models show a surface low developing in the Texas Panhandle in response to the approaching upper/mid level low and a dryline sharpening up in the forecast area, likely near or along the Caprock Escarpment by the afternoon. Convective initiation along the dryline and the surface low is looking increasing likely in the afternoon with forecast environmental conditions capable of supporting strong thunderstorms in both the afternoon and overnight. The main limiting factor reducing the chance of severe storms is low forecast instability with almost all model guidance showing only around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. It's possible initial convection could pose a small hail threat but if instability parameters remain low, chances of anything but small hail stones are low. Strong wind gusts are possible, and at this time looks to be the main storm hazard, with forecast sounding profiles showing inverted-v low level profiles with up to around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE.
CAMs are depicting the initial convection eventually congealing into a QLCS or a more linear mode of storms as cold pools possibly begin to merge together and a more organized line of thunderstorms moves east across the Texas Panhandle. Chances of initial convection in the afternoon and then possibly the more linear convection later in the evening and overnight are currently highest in the southern Texas Panhandle, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible for much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains as well.
The higher resolution CAMs are just now getting within range of this event but will help provide better guidance in the next forecasts.
Rain chances may stick around on Thursday mainly for areas off the Caprock but will likely depend on how things unfold on Wednesday.
PoPs have been lowered Thursday afternoon and evening with latest model guidance showing lift exiting the region and drier air moving into the area. Temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and 70s the rest of the week with zonal flow in the upper levels. More rain chances and cooler temperatures likely return to the region over the weekend and early next week but longer range models begin to diverge.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. South southwesterly winds will pick up to around 10 to 15 knots through the mid-morning to late afternoon hours.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The Rex Block will begin to break down today with the ridge weakening over northern California and a forward, eastern movement of the upper low into Arizona. This will bring a 30 to 40 knot 500mb subtropical jet with southwesterly flow aloft. A surface low will develop this afternoon across far northeast New Mexico, ahead of a cold front in Kansas, bringing weak height falls and low end breezy southwest winds to the forecast area. Downsloping winds and mostly sunny skies through the day today will help to bring near normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tonight, temperatures were warmed a few degrees above the NBM and closer to MOS guidance given the continued southwesterly surface flow, along with insulation from a potential stream of high clouds with the approaching upper low.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
On Wednesday, an upper level will move east into New Mexico and large scale lift will begin to increase across West Texas with thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon and overnight. Models show a surface low developing in the Texas Panhandle in response to the approaching upper/mid level low and a dryline sharpening up in the forecast area, likely near or along the Caprock Escarpment by the afternoon. Convective initiation along the dryline and the surface low is looking increasing likely in the afternoon with forecast environmental conditions capable of supporting strong thunderstorms in both the afternoon and overnight. The main limiting factor reducing the chance of severe storms is low forecast instability with almost all model guidance showing only around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. It's possible initial convection could pose a small hail threat but if instability parameters remain low, chances of anything but small hail stones are low. Strong wind gusts are possible, and at this time looks to be the main storm hazard, with forecast sounding profiles showing inverted-v low level profiles with up to around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE.
CAMs are depicting the initial convection eventually congealing into a QLCS or a more linear mode of storms as cold pools possibly begin to merge together and a more organized line of thunderstorms moves east across the Texas Panhandle. Chances of initial convection in the afternoon and then possibly the more linear convection later in the evening and overnight are currently highest in the southern Texas Panhandle, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible for much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains as well.
The higher resolution CAMs are just now getting within range of this event but will help provide better guidance in the next forecasts.
Rain chances may stick around on Thursday mainly for areas off the Caprock but will likely depend on how things unfold on Wednesday.
PoPs have been lowered Thursday afternoon and evening with latest model guidance showing lift exiting the region and drier air moving into the area. Temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and 70s the rest of the week with zonal flow in the upper levels. More rain chances and cooler temperatures likely return to the region over the weekend and early next week but longer range models begin to diverge.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. South southwesterly winds will pick up to around 10 to 15 knots through the mid-morning to late afternoon hours.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
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