Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Matador, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:37PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:05 PM CST (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Matador, TX
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location: 34.11, -100.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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Fxus64 klub 222343
afdlub
area forecast discussion
national weather service lubbock tx
543 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019

Aviation
Low ceilings at kcds will persist through the overnight hours
along with reduced visibility and wind shear. Once the cloud cover
clears all three terminals after sunrise tomorrow very strong
westerly winds will quickly develop and persist through the day.

Kpvw and klbb will see a fluctuation in flight categories from
vfr to lifr once the moisture builds further west this evening and
settles in for the overnight before being brushed eastward by the
aforementioned strong westerly winds after sunset tomorrow.

Prev discussion issued 311 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
discussion...

erosion of the stratus shield was slowing considerably just off
the caprock where chilly east winds remain locked in place. High
temps were lowered considerably in these areas given no drastic
changes expected in the coming hours. If anything, we will likely
see stratus begin charging west later this afternoon as pressure
falls strengthen to our west and serve to amplify easterly winds
region wide. This flow will tap higher dewpoints upstream and help
contribute to pwats upwards of 0.75" overnight as a pacific front
and strong height falls exit nm around the midnight hour. Some
initial background ascent is likely to arrive before this, mainly
in our far western zones, as upper divergence increases
considerably ahead of a negatively-tilted trough axis and
deepening upper low. Models indicate mostly marginal MLCAPE of
400-800 j kg over the cwa, but add to this the high degree of
forcing and it's not unusual to see convection strengthen more
than one would expect. Cams are in general agreement that small
hail and strong winds are most likely in our NW zones where the
strongest forcing overlaps with reasonably steep lapse rates of
8-9*c km. Added strong storm potential to the hwo, but otherwise
this convection should race NE overnight, with the southern half
our CWA left to contend with weaker and spottier showers and
storms due to less favorable upper divergence. Pops were adjusted
accordingly for this thinking, with 70% in our NW falling to 30%
in our southern row of counties.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track tomorrow for a regional
high wind event. The timing of the 850 and 700 mb jet maxima (50
knots and 65 knots, respectively) is early enough in the day that
we should avoid an even worse wind and dust event since this
occurs before peak heating MAX mixing, but the writing remains on
the wall for widespread sustained 40 mph instances with some
gusts near 65 mph. The timing of these peak winds should begin on
the caprock around 8-10 am and shift eastward through the early
afternoon, before diminishing to perhaps just wind advisory levels
around 4 pm. For now, opted to keep the high wind warning simple
with a broad timing of 6 am to 6 pm. After the pacific fropa
tomorrow morning, a canadian front will creep southeast through
the southern panhandle before slowing in the afternoon. The
remnants of this front should backdoor across the remainder of the
region on Sunday all the while the weather pattern turns much
quieter under largely zonal flow through the new week. However,
there remains sizable uncertainty between guidance concerning the
next FROPA - potentially as early as Mon night per the ECMWF or as
late as Wed according to the gfs. This difference hinges on
shallow and minor troughs in fast westerly flow which are rarely
well resolved this many days in advance, so we've stuck with a
blended solution for now favoring milder temps Mon and tue, before
cooler northeasterlies emerge o a wed. Precip chances look very
given deep moisture deficits in the low and mid levels for much of
this time, although the ECMWF is rather eager in pulling gulf
moisture north and eventually west into the south plains by
midweek. This solution seems too exceptional for measurable
precip here, but low clouds and especially fog (which are
historically most likely in february in these parts) would seem
more likely.

Fire weather...

strong rh recoveries will again occur tonight as moist easterly winds
bring low clouds and fog to all of the region. This along with erc
values around normal and high temps tomorrow also at or below
normal suggest the critical wildfire threat for our SW south
plains area may be curbed to just elevated. Local fire weather
procedures also favor rfd conditions at this time. However, we
will keep the fire weather watch intact as the magnitude of winds
could skew fire behavior higher, at least early in the day, before
winds scale lower through peak heating.

Lub watches warnings advisories
High wind warning from 6 am to 6 pm cst Saturday for txz021>044.

Fire weather watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for txz033-034-039>041.

55 99 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Childress, Childress Municipal Airport, TX34 mi72 minE 50.50 miFog44°F43°F96%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from CDS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9
G19
SE10E8E10E9E8E7E7NE6E6E7E8NE8E7SE3NE5E6SE7SE7E8E7E6E5E7
1 day agoS6S9SE9SE7SE6S10SE8SE8SE10SE8SE9SE13SE12SE12SE20
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2 days agoW5CalmCalmS8S8S6S8SW14SW9SW8SW8SW12W11W15
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W7SW4S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lubbock, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lubbock, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.